Corn analysis report of China Grain and oil market in October

Introduction: the domestic corn market fell in an all-round way this month The national average price of second-class yellow corn in this month is 1299 yuan / ton, down 4.3% from last month; the average price of second-class yellow corn in Zhengzhou grain wholesale market is 1302.5 yuan / ton, down 3.41% from last month 1 The market pressure on the increase of corn production is increasing Thanks to the implementation of various agricultural supporting policies and the help of favorable climate, the overall situation of corn harvest in China has been determined this year, with an estimated output of 120-130 million tons, approaching or even exceeding the level of 2002 Especially in the Huang Huai area of North China, where the production was greatly reduced in the last year, the recovery of production increased by a large margin, which can basically return to the level of 2002 Due to the large number of new corn has been listed in Huanghuai area of North China, and the stock of old corn is not much, the proportion of new corn in the market circulation has increased significantly, while the price has decreased significantly compared with the previous period 2 Difficulties in Northeast transportation: local enterprises are purchasing actively The transportation capacity in Northeast China is continuously tight The difficulties in transportation undoubtedly bring resistance to the sales of corn in this region, and at the same time bring certain pressure on the price of corn in this region With the listing of new corn in Northeast China, the purchase price of new corn is significantly lower than that of old corn, so local grain companies are more active in purchasing new corn, and the demand for old corn is reduced In addition, the enthusiasm of the storage enterprises to sell stale grain also increased, which further promoted the price to continue to fall 3 The recovery pace of the aquaculture industry is slow and the demand is not strong Although the domestic aquaculture industry is in the recovery period, the recovery progress is slow In recent years, the state has begun to curb the price rise, the price rise of downstream products of livestock and poultry has been controlled, and the profit level of breeding industry is facing a decline In addition, the current corn market is in a decline channel, and the feed industry is also more cautious about corn procurement, resulting in the feed industry's sluggish demand 4 We can learn from the past The purchase and sale of corn by enterprises are more cautious Due to the impact of the avian influenza epidemic, the market trend of corn this year is different from that of previous years, and corn operating enterprises have gained more than they have won less In addition, this year's corn harvest, operating enterprises generally look down on the aftermarket Therefore, in the face of a large number of new corn listing, the operating enterprises are more cautious, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the purchase and sale market is relatively light 5 China's export of corn reduces the demand for foreign trade This year, the number of corn exports has declined significantly According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China's export of corn in September this year was 40600 tons, and the cumulative export of corn from January to September was 1882700 tons, down 82.44% on the same period Due to the decline of domestic corn price and the increase of sea freight, the CIF price of corn exported to Korea by Jilin grain is close to 140 US dollars / ton from November to December, which makes China's corn export advantage appear again Although the export recovery is good for the corn market, due to the limited quantity, it is not expected to bring substantial pull to the domestic corn market To sum up, the market pressure of the new corn harvest will be the key factor affecting the corn market in the later period, and it is expected that the overall domestic corn market will continue to decline in the later period.