Corn in Northeast China will see rainbow after wind and rain

Introduction: since this year, the price of corn in the northern production areas of China has been running at a low level The delivery price of car board has always been lower than the purchase cost price The operation of northeast grain enterprises is in a dilemma After April, due to the influence of policy and related factors, especially the auction of grain for aged, it injected vitality and vitality into the silent corn market, which attracted the general attention of grain enterprises in the south, and set off the climax of grain for aged purchase and sale nationwide Can northeast corn take this opportunity to walk out of a steadily rising market? Next, according to the operation of the corn market, the author analyzes the influencing factors of the second half of the northeast corn market as follows: 1 Policy factors help to increase, and the transportation cost of corn is reduced This year is the first year of China's accession to the WTO It is also the most critical year for China to accelerate the pace of grain circulation system reform and meet the challenges of China's accession to the WTO Since spring, China has successively introduced grain related policies For example: (1) the State Council approved the implementation of zero tax rate for value-added tax on rice, corn and wheat, and exempted the output tax when exporting the above-mentioned goods (2) The state exempts from the railway construction fund for large agricultural products such as corn and cotton These policies will have a profound impact on reducing the cost of corn export and domestic trade and encouraging export 2 The export volume has increased and the development prospect is optimistic According to the General Administration of customs, China exported 2.96 million tons of corn from January to April, including 860000 tons in April From January to April, the export volume of Jilin, a major corn export province, was 140000 tons, 320000 tons, 600000 tons and 630000 tons respectively In April, Jilin's exports accounted for 73.26% of the total It is reported that China's corn export is expected to reach 6 million tons this year, exceeding the expectation of 4.5 million tons at the beginning of the year The increase in exports will have an impact on the price of corn in the main production areas It is predicted that the export of corn this year may be as high as 7-8 million tons However, the export environment and opportunities this year are the best in recent years The increase of the export quantity of corn will promote the price of corn 3 The bidding price of grain is higher than expected, and grain consuming enterprises are optimistic about the market expectation in the second half of the year Grain price bidding is a further confirmation of the bottom of corn price In April 2002, the average transaction price of corn in Liaoning spring auction fair was 948 yuan / ton On May 11, the average price of corn in Liaoning Province was 950 yuan / ton On May 16 and 17, the average price of corn in Jilin Province was 929.5 yuan / ton The highest transaction price was 1005 yuan / ton Most of the transaction price of corn was 935 yuan / ton, which was close to or the same as the local spot price in Jilin The reason why grain companies in the south are willing to pay high prices for old corn also shows that their expectations for the future corn market are good Three provinces in Northeast China auctioned 3.25 million tons of corn, which did not cause a sharp drop in the market price of corn At present, the spot price of corn in Jilin production area is still in the range of 940-960 yuan / ton The closing price of old corn in Dalian port is 1020 yuan / ton, and that of export corn is 1035 yuan / ton At present, the price of corn in the main sales areas in the south is stable with slight increase For example, Shanghai's price rose to 1080 yuan / ton from 1060 yuan / ton last week, and Fuqing's market rose to 1170 yuan / ton from 1160 yuan / ton Sichuan, Zhejiang and other places also showed signs of steady growth 4 The competitive advantage of China's corn in the international market has increased According to the April report of the State Grain and oil information center, China's corn output accounts for 18.7% of the world's total corn output, while the export volume only accounts for 5.6% of the world's total corn export As a big agricultural country, China's corn export potential is huge As we all know, China's corn is non genetically modified corn with stable quality By reducing the cost of export transportation and exempting from the output tax, China's corn competitiveness in the international market will be enhanced Now, the use of Chinese corn purchased by some countries is not limited to feed use For example, the Korean Processing Association purchased 50000 tons of Chinese corn for human consumption at a price of 106.28 US dollars per ton Recently, due to the transportation problem and the increase of freight in the United States, the price of corn in the United States has increased, which has affected the corn trade in the United States According to the calculation, the cost price of imported corn arriving at China's port in May has reached 1150 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as the price of corn in China However, if the southern grain consuming enterprises use imported corn, there is no more profit The weakening of American corn competitiveness is conducive to the increase of Chinese corn's share in the international market 5 Seasonal demand drives corn prices up This year, the evolution of corn market in Northeast China is different from that in previous years The price expected to rise in April has been crawling slowly at a low and medium level The main reason is that the impact of grain auction since spring has changed the trajectory of market price operation The operation below the corn price cost line makes the grain management enterprises in Northeast China difficult However, seasonal demand factors also began to play a role in the market This problem is illustrated by the increase of demand and the steady digestion of a large number of old corn in Northeast China After the weather turns warm, the peak of animal husbandry and animal husbandry production also comes At this time, corn in the Central Plains has been unable to meet the needs of feed production in the sales area The increase of corn purchase quantity in the north will surely drive the corn price in the Northeast up step by step To sum up, the author believes that the northeast corn, which has experienced the baptism of wind and rain, will go out of a steady upward trend Of course, there are also many factors that restrain the price rise of corn, such as the impact of the recent implementation of the new agricultural law of the United States on the future international agricultural trade; the impact of foot-and-mouth disease of South Korea on China's corn export; the inhibition of wheat as part of feed on the price of corn; whether imported corn can enter the Chinese market in the second half of the year, etc Although, due to many variable factors affecting the corn market, the rising trend of northeast corn in the second half of the year has become increasingly clear.