Cotton futures call for cautious optimism of cotton related enterprises

Introduction: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange launched cotton futures faster than many expected In response to the public information about listing on May 28, the reporter called Zheng Shangsuo on May 25, and a head of foreign publicity said, "it will definitely be launched in the near future, but the specific time is not clear." Since the spring of this year, although a considerable number of cotton industry practitioners have proposed that "listing at present is not the best time", Zheng Shang's intensive preparations have expressed some urgency Some targeted futures training activities have been successively launched in Beijing, Zhengzhou, Wuhan and other places Major domestic cotton related enterprises and some futures companies have sent special personnel to attend "In fact, since last year, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has been building momentum for the listing of cotton futures." Liu Hua, general office of China national reserve cotton Management Corporation, told reporters today, "to some extent, this shows the confidence and attitude of the market, and the introduction of cotton futures is the general trend." Related to this, China has a long cotton industry chain, with 50 million agricultural families, 200 million agricultural people engaged in cotton production and 17 million people engaged in textile industry Although cotton production accounts for 20% of the world's total output, China does not control the pricing power of the international cotton market It is reported that the industry has reached a consensus that it is necessary to establish China's cotton price system to provide a market for cotton related enterprises and cotton producers to avoid price risk The impetuous cotton price is the direct driving force for the introduction of cotton futures, which comes from the volatile cotton price in the domestic market In October last year, the purchase price of new cotton soared from 14000 yuan to 4000 yuan per ton, with a maximum of 19000 yuan per ton, due to the market's expectation of a large gap in domestic cotton demand "This is the first wave." Liu Hua said that the second fluctuation started after the Spring Festival and continued to decline in March Until May, the cotton spot market experienced five consecutive stops, reaching 16000 yuan per ton "The substantial rise and fall of price makes cotton related enterprises tremble." Liu Hua said It's basically a "primitive market," a veteran cotton buyer told reporters He believes that cotton related enterprises need to pay in full when carrying out spot transactions and have a large amount of capital Once the goods arrive, they expect only to rise and not fall, which is a great risk Cotton is a special large-scale raw material commodity, greatly affected by uncontrollable factors, the price is really unpredictable, "a lot of times like gambling." At present, China's cotton purchase and sale system is changing from planned control of unified purchase and sale to diversified purchase and sale system with market as the core From 1998, when the state liberalized cotton prices, to 2003, private enterprises accounted for more than 50% of the purchased enterprises The speed of liberalizing was not too fast At the same time, even if there are three "world first" (the world's largest cotton producers, consumers and importers), the rapid development of China's textile industry still causes the imbalance of domestic cotton supply and demand "The demand is too strong, and the state's inventory of reserve cotton, which has been sold at low prices since 1998, is basically sold out, and there is a speculative impulse to raise prices in the market." "Uncertainty has increased," said the senior People are eager to seek certainty in the uncertain market The hedging function of cotton futures meets this urgent demand In short, the operation mode of cotton futures is: cotton producers or purchasing enterprises conduct spot trading, at the same time, according to the judgment of the future spot trading price, buy or sell the same amount of futures contracts according to the current pricing of the futures market, so as to avoid the possible losses of future spot trading "The international cotton price fluctuates extremely violently No cotton related enterprise does not participate in cotton futures trading, otherwise, it will face the risk of bankruptcy." One industry person said The reporter learned from the information center of zhongchu cotton that as soon as the news of the expected listing of cotton futures came out, some futures companies and speculators showed strong interest "But the state has been cautious because of concerns about the effectiveness of regulation." Liu Hua said Ji Guangpo, marketing department of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, once said that the introduction of cotton futures should be based on the basic principle of "slow rather than disorderly, in line with international standards and functions", and Zheng Shang was particularly careful in the preparation for listing, having conducted strict tests and simulations before But he gave no more details According to the targeted survey of CRMC Information Center, the vast majority of enterprises believe that futures is a means of trading, which needs a gradual improvement process The impact of cotton futures on the spot market at the beginning of listing will not be immediate "Futures only provide a hedging or arbitrage tool for market participants." Liu Hua believes that cotton futures have no direct effect on stabilizing cotton spot price, "and the impact of macro policies and supply and demand on the market is more direct." The cotton industry senior figures said that with the futures market not equal to the price of cotton, there will be no fluctuation Cotton farmers and cotton related enterprises can find more signals from the futures market price, so as to provide decision-making guidance for future production and business activities This is another important function of futures market A slow hot process in the long run, has been brewing nearly 10 years of cotton futures launched at this time, the impact on the market will be positive The aforementioned senior figures believe that a standardized, strictly regulated and reliable market will bring confidence to all parties "People who have been tossed by the cotton price at least feel less vulnerable." But the corresponding concerns remain Most people are not familiar with the operation of cotton futures and need to learn Some people of futures companies think that the operation of cotton contract is complex and needs an adaptive process Cotton futures, as a special variety, is totally different from the previous oil, grain, metal, rubber and other varieties, in which there are laws of growth, cultivation and supply and demand In addition, many cotton related enterprises have doubts about the timing of the launch of cotton futures According to the survey conducted by China national reserve cotton information center, some large textile enterprises in Zhejiang and Jiangsu hold a cautious attitude towards futures investment in the market Under the background of recent tight money and difficult capital turnover, the wait-and-see atmosphere is more intense "There are difficulties in lending, and investment in futures may not be considered." Liu Hua said For the prevailing cautious attitude in the market, Zheng also said that he hoped that after the introduction of cotton futures, all work could be carried out steadily, and the initial intervention of enterprises in the form of hedging would be more stable, which would play a very beneficial role in the steady development of cotton futures varieties and in avoiding the market's big fall It must be a slow and hot process Said the senior person to reporters After all, China's cotton futures market is just beginning Compared with this, cotton futures appeared in the United States as early as 1870, which has been more than 130 years ■ it's better to slow down Xiao Qiang's grain price hike in recent days, and the argument of developing new varieties of agricultural products futures is getting stronger Recently, China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the listing of cotton futures, industry insiders expect that corn and soybean No 2 futures will also be launched one after another However, the development process of Chinese futures market for more than ten years shows that the inherent operation mechanism of futures market is inherently inadequate Before solving some deep-seated fundamental contradictions, it is advisable to be cautious in the current listing of large agricultural products futures At present, the level of agricultural productivity in China is generally low, the degree of market-oriented development of agricultural industry is poor, and the reform process of grain circulation system is just beginning In this context, although the state has gradually used market means to intervene in price fluctuations, it is only a necessary condition, not a sufficient condition, for the introduction of commodity futures In addition, after years of development, although there are a large number of grain management enterprises participating in the futures market, they are only cross market arbitragers between the spot market and the futures market, that is, they buy from farmers in the spot market, and then transfer to the futures market to win the difference As a producer, farmers do not have the conditions to participate in the futures market and are completely excluded from the price setting process A variety without producer participation will eventually become a platform for big capital game, and its development direction is likely to deviate from the good original intention, and the system risk still exists With the gradual establishment of China's market economy system, it is an inevitable process to launch the futures of large agricultural products But we should fully realize the "double-edged sword" function of futures market The essence of futures market is a market to transfer the risk of spot goods At present, the most urgent real demand of Chinese farmers is not to transfer the price risk, but to solve the problem of "difficult to sell grain" when the grain price is low and "good price" when the grain price is rising The fundamental way to solve these two problems is to cultivate farmers' specialized cooperative organizations in the field of circulation The organization will become a real producer in the futures market, and participate in price setting to achieve the balance of market game power At the same time, the development and growth of this kind of cooperative organization can greatly improve the level of the whole agricultural industrialization, thus forming the basis for the listing of large agricultural products futures.