Countdown of the opening of the second batch of centralized purchase! Last sprint, we must see the key points

On January 9, the State Medical Security Bureau held a symposium on medical security Leaders pointed out in the meeting that we should fully implement the spirit of the central economic work conference, adhere to the goal and task of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, do a solid job in all aspects of medical security, and make greater contributions to ensuring and improving people's livelihood On January 10, the State Medical Security Bureau held a meeting to continue to implement the leadership spirit, pointing out that in order to vigorously promote the reform of centralized purchase and use of drugs organized by the state, break the barriers of interests, and realize the normal operation, the "three medical linkage" reform was promoted as a breakthrough Key words for the beginning of medical year: normalization and breakthrough take the normalization of national centralized procurement as the breakthrough of "three medical linkage" In short, the breakthrough progress of China's medical reform will take the national centralized procurement as an opportunity The "normalization" is reflected in the irregularity, the beginning but not the end From the perspective of the medical model of developed countries in Europe and the United States, the national centralized procurement is the "patent cliff" with Chinese characteristics Through the tangible hand of the state, it helps the pharmaceutical industry to be plastic, to meet the goal of medical reform, to solve the problem of "expensive medical treatment", and to make patients have a sense of gain In foreign countries, drugs beyond the patent period need to complete the mission of "patent cliff" According to people's daily news, in the future, the State Council will formulate policies and the state health insurance bureau will implement them The goal is to focus on the first 160 varieties of hospital procurement from high to low, and plan to do another three years and 5-6 batches This should be just the starting point It is essential to expand from the three-year plan to all patented varieties On January 10, the drug evaluation center of the State Drug Administration issued the 25th and 26th batches of reference preparations, totaling 353 reference preparations, to accelerate the consistency evaluation This also means that these reference preparations will have consistency evaluation varieties, and will participate in centralized collection, one year fast and two years slow, so it is necessary to see the speed of consistency evaluation research For the original research pharmaceutical enterprises, we need to make a good forecast, once entering the centralized mining sales volume, it will drop precipitously For consistency evaluation enterprises, they also need to make preparations If they are not involved in the centralized purchase, how to start the self financing mode? Most enterprises are waiting to share the policy dividend in order to participate in the centralized purchase Key point 1: at the strategic level, potential will become a trend in the normal state of national centralized procurement It is important to follow the trend and share the final dividend of generic drug policy Entering the national centralized procurement will become a battle for the life and death of enterprise varieties Enterprises make great efforts to enter the centralized mining According to relevant data, Plavix has nearly 60% of the market share After being defeated in the 4 + 7 centralized mining pilot, Plavix would not hesitate to offer a lower price than xinlitai to win, with a decrease of nearly 20% compared with the 4 + 7 centralized mining Haizheng pharmaceutical, a well-known domestic pharmaceutical company, has offered the lowest price for both products in the process of centralized mining and expansion The price of rosuvastatin calcium tablet (10mg) is 0.2 yuan / tablet, compared with 0.78 yuan / tablet in the 4 + 7 pilot project, with a drop of 74.31% The price of irbesartan tablet (75mg) is 0.192 yuan / tablet, compared with 0.20 yuan / tablet in the 4 + 7 pilot project, with a drop of 5.02% If it fails to enter the catalogue of centralized mining, there are only two options, i.e exploration of self paying mode and waiting for another three years The road of life is long There are several years to wait After all, there are so many mouths to eat in the enterprise Key point 2: at the technical level, this round of centralized purchase involves 33 varieties, 50 product specifications, including 17 dual product specifications The products involve 23 foreign manufacturers, some of which have no original research products listed in China It involves 11 treatment fields, including 15 anti infection regulations, 11 cardiovascular regulations and 4 diabetes regulations 1 To sort out the process and find out the policy differences, we need to carefully read the 4 + 7 and 4 + 7 expansion policies, and different policies will produce different results In particular, there are several key points to be considered in this round of national centralized purchase: the most effective application and quotation, the increase of the maximum purchase proportion to 80%, the expansion of the purchase cycle to 3 years, and the increase of the number of shortlisted enterprises to 6 In particular, it should be noted that the highest proportion of procurement has been increased to 80%, and if it is not shortlisted, the living space will be further reduced to 20% 2 Simulate the increment, and predict the increment model According to the change trend of sales volume after entering 4 + 7, especially the shortlisted varieties in 4 + 7 cities in the previous rounds, determine that the year of increment is the same as the total price 3 Cost accounting, determine the cost range, carry out accurate cost accounting for drugs, and comprehensively evaluate the cost of the product according to R & D expenses, raw material costs, production costs, operating costs, etc If the quoted price is lower than the cost, we should not give up the centralized mining to be shortlisted, reduce the cost in many ways, and realize the profit growth For example, in the last round of centralized mining and expansion, some enterprises adopt the method of direct reduction of staff, and some enterprises use the online multi-channel marketing mode to reduce the proportion of marketing expenses, so as to obtain the control of enterprise cost In the era of low-cost medicine in China, pharmaceutical enterprises need to learn lean management from the automobile industry 4 Adversary analysis, find out the game range This round of adversary analysis will be more complex It is due to the increase of over evaluated enterprises and the number of shortlisted enterprises, up to 6 It is necessary to analyze the production process, possible cost and market share of competitors, simulate their pre offer, and find out the game space of both sides For domestic enterprises, the enterprise scale, business model and raw material supply are relatively transparent, and the quotation is easy to estimate We need to analyze the quotations of foreign enterprises, especially the original research pharmaceutical enterprises From the previous rounds, the performances are different: part of them adhere to the price line and take the high-end self financing route, such as Pfizer, whose atorvastatin calcium tablets and amlodipine are not collected on average, so Pfizer is confident to kill a blood path in its self financing share, which has created many miracles in the past We also look forward to this time On the other hand, we should actively participate in and fully reduce prices to adapt to China's national conditions For example, Sanofi, its leader in charge of government affairs, said in an interview that "according to the government's future policy orientation and effective implementation of the volume procurement expansion, Sanofi will carefully evaluate the business model In the rapidly changing market environment, we need to constantly evaluate, adapt to the circumstances, enhance core competitiveness, actively innovate, and truly benefit patients " 5 It is difficult to evaluate how to give the best price, especially between the shortlist and the price There is no best price, only the best result, if can be shortlisted is the best result It's hard to assess who is the better price between 2 yuan and 2.3 yuan It depends on the cost A company with good cost control may lose 2.3 yuan even if 2 yuan is profitable and cost control is poor Key point 3: at the critical level, the self financing plan believes that no matter 3 enterprises are shortlisted or 6 enterprises are shortlisted, the shortlisted enterprises are a few Most enterprises choose either self financing or strategic abandonment of collecting varieties In this part, we believe that multinational enterprises will soon have a bloody way to go, which can be inquired about or waited for From the breakthrough of centralized mining, medical insurance negotiation, DRG combo, and the official document of medicine to disease elimination, it is clearly pointed out that taking centralized mining as a breakthrough, considering the benefits of centralized mining and the greatest impact on the pharmaceutical industry The price of medical insurance negotiation has been continuously reduced by more than 60% 224 clinical paths (2019 version) have just been released This series of combos will continue to consolidate the achievements of medical reform DRG payment was accelerated On December 17, the DRG payment national pilot technical guidance group of the National Medical Security Bureau started the clinical demonstration of DRG group in Beijing 44 main committees and Deputy main committees, 29 standing committee members, more than 150 professional committee members and medical and health industry experts from all over the country, who were recommended by the Chinese Medical Association, participated in the demonstration This week, we will further form the clinical pathway basis, revise the clinical pathway of 19 disciplines, and form 224 clinical pathways 2019 We believe that the first round of DRG will be launched soon This round of centralized purchase will push forward the medical reform of China again, and also marks the official launch of the "patent cliff" of Chinese generic drugs 37 statement: This article only represents the author and does not represent the position of yaozhi.com You are welcome to communicate and supplement in the message area If you need to reprint, please be sure to indicate the author and source of the article.