Crude oil: continue to strengthen, band long

On the evening of March 21, internal and external oil prices stabilized and strengthened as we had expected, and we also maintained a strong judgment
on oil prices this week.
Although the situation in Russia and Ukraine has eased in the past week, the export of Russian crude oil and refined oil products affected by sanctions is still blocked, and the tight global supply of crude oil and refined oil has not eased
.
Therefore, for crude oil that has given back all the geopolitical risk premiums in the early stage, there is a certain short-term over-fall, and the space below is originally relatively limited, and the short-term is in the process of building a phased bottom and rebound, focusing on the band long
.

In terms of negative factors, the rapid spread of the epidemic in China has revised down the forecast for crude oil demand in 2022 to a certain extent, so it is recommended to pay close attention
.
In addition, in the past week, there have been reports that there are still large traders or oil and gas companies continuing to cooperate with Russia for energy, and some countries (such as India) are likely to expand imports of Russian crude oil
.
If confirmed, the bearish on oil prices is obviously fatal
.
However, from the actual understanding of the current situation of the shipping market, most shipping companies still maintain a wait-and-see attitude, which can also be reflected in the fluctuation of freight rates on related routes, and the impact of the stagnation of Russian crude oil supply on the global crude oil market cannot be falsified
for the time being.
In other aspects, the Fed's 25BP interest rate hike landing and the potential return of Iranian crude oil are all bearish for the previous market pricing, and the marginal impact on the disk is very limited
.