[China Epoxy Resin Industry Online] August 30, 2004.
Petroleum is known as the "blood" of the national economy.
It is an important strategic resource and one of the important factors affecting the world's political situation and economic development in the past 50 years.
Oil prices have been volatile and have remained high for a long time, which has increased people's worries about global economic growth.
According to OECD calculations, an increase of US$5 per barrel in international oil prices under normal conditions will cause the world economy to fall by 0.
Among them, the economy of developed countries will decline by 0.
2%, and the economies of developing countries will decline by 0.
It is one of the world's most important oil consumers.
In the United States, if oil prices rise by 25%, inflation will rise by 1%.
In my country, if the oil self-sufficiency rate drops to 60% in 2010, as predicted by relevant experts, it will be more passively affected by the international oil market and oil prices.
Crude oil price fluctuations have a significant impact on the economic benefits of the petroleum and chemical industries, but the impacts on their sub-sectors vary considerably.
In this regard, we analyzed the correlation between the total profit of the relevant sub-sectors of the petrochemical industry and the fluctuation of oil prices since March 1999, and used a scatter diagram to visually reflect the impact of oil price fluctuations on the profits of various industries.
In general, the profits of the upstream oil and natural gas extraction industry have a very obvious positive correlation with oil price fluctuations; while for other industries, when oil prices fluctuate in different ranges, there are obvious differences in their profit trends.
As some major sub-sectors in the petrochemical industry are highly related to crude oil, oil price is an important factor influencing the profit of the industry, but it is not that oil price is the only factor that affects the profit trend of the industry.
The profit changes in any of the above sub-sectors are all The result of a combination of various factors.
In addition to the impact of oil price fluctuations on the profit trend of the industry, it also has an important impact on other related industries, just because the main raw materials of various industries are different from the crude oil, and there are differences in mutual relevance and degree of influence.
We believe that fluctuations in crude oil prices also affect sub-industrial industries such as textiles and garments, fertilizers, chlor-alkali, paint, household appliances (the impact of household appliances plastics), etc.
, as well as transportation and power industries.
The industries where price increases can promote development include:
Petroleum processing and coking industry.
"Petroleum processing and coking industry" refers to the "manufacturing of refined petroleum products" and "coking", with the manufacturing of refined petroleum products as the main body.
Refined petroleum product manufacturing refers to "the industry that extracts liquid or gaseous fuels from natural crude oil and man-made crude oil, as well as the production of petroleum products".
Products include: gasoline, diesel, kerosene, lubricating oil, fuel oil and other petroleum products, as well as chemical raw materials , Petroleum solvents, petroleum pitch, paraffin, ozokerite, petroleum coke, grease, petroleum jelly and other petroleum products.
Comparing the "monthly average price trend of Daqing crude oil" since March 1999 with "monthly benefit fluctuations in the petroleum processing and coking industry", it is found from the comparison chart of Daqing oil price and total profit that when the oil price is between 20 and 30 US dollars per barrel During the interval, the increase in crude oil prices is beneficial to the improvement of industry profits.
At the same time, from the correlation test of the sales revenue, sales cost, total profit, Daqing oil price and other data of the sub-industry, the cost is the most relevant to oil price fluctuations, and the total profit and its correlation are poor.
In addition, we have also noticed that the profits of this sub-industry fluctuated greatly from April to November 2001, which was related to the adjustment of the refined oil pricing mechanism during that period.
After the adjustment of the pricing mechanism here, the benefits of the petroleum refining industry fluctuated.
Under normal circumstances, the following factors will make listed oil refining companies more profitable: coal, electricity, oil transportation is the main bottleneck of domestic economic development and is supported by the state, and the number of motor vehicles has risen sharply, and overloading is inevitably increased.
The frequency of large-scale transportation will bring about demand growth.
Coupled with the improvement of the international refining gross profit, oil refining companies should perform well.
However, when we analyze the impact of oil prices on the profit of the refining industry, only when oil prices fluctuate within a certain range, refining companies (including Petrochemical, Jinzhou Petrochemical, Daqing Lianyi, etc.
) will benefit to varying degrees from the increase in crude oil prices.
, We think this is caused by the incoordination between domestic refined oil and crude oil pricing mechanism.
On the whole, with the exception of some refining companies whose production capacity has expanded and crude oil resources can be better satisfied, most of the refining companies are not optimistic about their profitability in the current environment of high oil prices.
As far as the fertilizer industry is concerned, the domestic natural gas price is poorly “linked” to the price of crude oil, and coal is also the main raw material for fertilizer production.
Therefore, the increase in the cost of overseas crude oil or natural gas prices will drive international fertilizers.
The increase in market prices will not only weaken the competitiveness of overseas products in the domestic market, but also will positively support the prices of domestic fertilizer producers due to the increase in the imported CIF price.
As far as the chlor-alkali industry is concerned, if other factors are not considered, “increasing oil prices will cause major changes in the profit source structure of the industry”.
Because the chlor-alkali industry also uses calcium carbide as raw material to produce PVC, and this production process still has a high domestic market share.
Therefore, the cost increase brought about by rising oil prices will give greater support to the strengthening of chlor-alkali products.
If the cost of producing PVC by the calcium carbide method does not change significantly, the profits of such enterprises will be greatly improved.
The industries that have hindered development due to price increases include the
fiber-forming manufacturing industry.
The synthetic fiber manufacturing industry is also a sub-industry closely related to crude oil.
The main products of this industry include acrylic fiber manufacturing, nylon fiber manufacturing, polyester fiber manufacturing, vinylon fiber manufacturing, and other synthetic fiber manufacturing.
From the perspective of the correlation test between industry profits and oil price fluctuations, the industry is significantly affected by crude oil price fluctuations.
Fluctuations in oil prices will affect the price of synthetic fibers.
If the price rises, its downstream companies will face certain cost pressures, and may even change the consumption structure (such as switching to other natural fiber clothing consumption and promoting the improvement of the efficiency of this sector), and vice versa in contrast.
If we only consider the oil price and the profit fluctuations of the synthetic fiber industry, we can find that when the oil price is at a low level below US$18/barrel, the increase in oil prices will help promote the improvement of the profit of the synthetic fiber industry.
This situation is between 22 and 30.
The dollar range has also reappeared.
However, when the oil price exceeds US$30, the continued increase in oil prices will cause a significant decline in the profits of the synthetic fiber industry.
Plastic products industry.
The plastic products industry refers to “the industry that produces plastic films, plastic plates, tubes, profiles, packaging boxes and containers, plastic parts and other products”.
The raw materials mainly come from petrochemical products, which are also affected by fluctuations in crude oil prices to varying degrees.
Some clues can be seen from the comparison chart between the total profit of the plastic products industry and the changes in oil prices in Daqing.
Based on the correlation test between the economic efficiency indicators of the industry and Daqing oil prices since March 1999, and the comparison chart of total profits and Daqing oil prices, it has the following characteristics: First, rising oil prices will significantly increase costs, but profits The correlation between the total amount and oil price is not obvious; secondly, when the oil price is in the appropriate range, the increase in oil price has a positive effect on the improvement of the efficiency indicators of the plastic products industry, but when the price rises more than a certain range (for example, after the Daqing oil price exceeds 30 US dollars) , The benefits began to decline significantly; finally, in the industrial chain, the plastic products industry is a downstream industry of petrochemicals, and the fluctuation of crude oil prices has relatively weak influence on it.
Rubber products industry.
The rubber products industry mainly includes "tire manufacturing, rubber sheet, tube, belt manufacturing, rubber parts manufacturing, rubber boots and shoes manufacturing, etc.
Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are the main raw materials, because the two can be replaced within a certain range.
Trends influence each other.
However, the preparation of synthetic rubber is inseparable from petrochemical products, so it is also affected by fluctuations in crude oil prices to varying degrees.
Based on the correlation test between the economic efficiency indicators of the industry and Daqing oil prices since March 1999, the total profit and the comparison chart of the Daqing oil price trend, it has the following characteristics: The rubber products industry profit and oil prices are relatively weak (estimated with raw materials Structural differences are related, such as natural rubber does not depend on crude oil; at the same time, product market demand conditions also have a greater impact on it); when oil prices continue to remain high (for example, more than 30 US dollars per barrel), industry benefits show a significant downward trend.
In addition, in the paint, household appliances (household plastic price fluctuations), transportation, power generation and other industries, under the circumstance that other factors remain unchanged, the drop in oil prices may benefit the improvement of efficiency, and the rise will increase its cost pressure.
(According to Xinhua News Agency)