December 16 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

In terms of fundamentals, domestic social stocks fell by 37,000 tons to 915,000 tons this week, and aluminum ingots continued to decline
.
On the supply side, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, domestic electrolytic aluminum production in October was 3.
13 million tons, down 1.
8%
year-on-year.
Aluminum prices fluctuate at a low level, and there is little room for decline in the medium term supported by costs
.
Alumina prices have recently fallen closer to costs, and electricity prices for high-energy-consuming enterprises are difficult to decline
in the short term.

Recently, the Fed accelerated Taper in line with market expectations, under the optimistic development of the global economy, the market is once again optimistic about follow-up consumption, short-term macro sentiment boosts aluminum prices upward, Shanghai aluminum or continue the volatile upward trend; In addition, with the gradual entry of the end of the year, it may be difficult for domestic aluminum enterprises to reduce production on a large scale in December, and the production capacity will be released steadily, and the contradiction between supply and demand has been eased, which will play a certain role in supporting prices; The main force continues to pay attention to the range of 1.
88-19,400, and the pressure level refers to 19,500.