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Copper market morning comment: last week, London copper bottomed out, Shanghai copper main contract closed lower, LME copper stocks 89150 tons, an increase of 7375 tons compared with last week; Copper stocks in the previous period decreased by 6,800 tonnes to 34,580 tonnes; The warehouse of Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 139,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons
.
The macro margin is improving, the fundamental support is weak, the lower edge of the range is concerned, and the band operation is the mainstay
.
Fundamentally, domestic and foreign mine disruptions continued, and the Las Bambas copper mine agreement was difficult to reach, and it was announced that production would be suspended until this Saturday
.
Affected by the epidemic, copper concentrate transportation at domestic Erlian ports continues to be suspended, and it is currently scheduled to resume
next week.
The TC index fell for two consecutive weeks
.
The long single processing fee for copper concentrate in 2022 was finalized at US$65/mt, up US$5.
5/mt from 2021, a shorter-than-market increase, implying that buyers and sellers are still concerned
about supply disruptions in 2022.
At the macro level, US inflation has soared, the Federal Reserve has accelerated debt reduction, and the US dollar will remain strong; Domestic liquidity has shown signs of easing, infrastructure construction has advanced, and cross-cycle adjustment has
been strengthened.
On the supply side, the recovery of TC has slowed down, the disturbance of power restrictions has been eliminated, the production of refined copper has rebounded, the recent import sources have continued to flow, the domestic scrap copper supply has been affected under the epidemic, and the price difference of refined waste has fallen
.
On the demand side, domestic inventories are at a low level, and the premium is rising at a low level, indicating that demand is acceptable after the price correction
.
Overseas inventories increased, and spot premiums remained positive
.
