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Today's aluminum price gains gradually slowed down, as of the close of 3 p.
m.
, the main 2202 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed up at 19625, up 95, or 0.
49%.
As the bullish sentiment fades and the pace of aluminum price rises gradually slows down, the main force of Shanghai aluminum may still be under pressure below
the 20,000 mark.
In addition, although the contradiction between domestic supply and demand has eased, but considering that the current is near the end of the year, the off-season consumption situation is worrying, the fundamentals do not support the price to continue to rise, short-term aluminum prices need to be vigilant against the risk of high fall, Shanghai night trading or there is a possibility of another downward exploration, operationally recommended that merchants ship at a high level, downstream for the time being, it is expected that tomorrow's spot aluminum may fall
.
On the supply side: November production is in line with expectations, December production will pick up slightly month-on-month, considering that the National Reserve Bank has not sold reserves, supply is at a low level
during the year.
Consumption: The year-on-year decline in real estate sales area in November narrowed and rose month-on-month, indicating that the real estate market has gradually improved under the background of loosening real estate policies; Demand continues to improve, and aluminum ingots are in the seasonal destocking stage
.
Overall, although the cost of electrolytic aluminum is still falling, the market has begun to pay attention to the cumulative effect of consumption improvement, and demand expectations are also improving, but the current inventory is still at a high level, and the Spring Festival is approaching, the fundamental improvement space is limited, and the 20,000 mark may still be under pressure
.
In the medium and long term, the supply side is still limited, and the real estate policy is relaxed, the demand side is not pessimistic, and the aluminum price still has a basis for upward rush
.
