December 27 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

European energy crisis fermentation caused electricity prices soared, affected by the rise in electricity prices, Montenegro KAP aluminum plant has stopped power supply, involving a production capacity of 120,000 tons, Germany Trimet aluminum industry reduced production by 70,000 tons, up to now Europe due to energy price reduction production capacity has expanded from more than 100,000 tons in mid-October to nearly 300,000 tons, European electrolytic aluminum production capacity accounts for 11% of global production capacity, cost rise to support aluminum prices
upward.

Domestically, the continuous decline in electricity costs and alumina prices has led to a decline in the cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises, the profitability of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has improved, and some electrolytic aluminum plants have begun to prepare for the resumption of production, but the progress of resumption of production tends to be slow, and it is difficult to see a significant increase during the year; On the consumer side, the operating rate of processing enterprises has generally remained stable, and the downstream orders of plate, strip and foil and cable companies are relatively stable, and it is expected that aluminum prices will follow the external shock
upward.

As the macro favorable fades aluminum prices return to the fundamentals, but near the end of the year, the market is generally not optimistic about the consumption of the previous year, coupled with the slowdown of the social treasury, multiple bearish drags down aluminum prices, short-term Shanghai aluminum or will usher in a continuous pullback, the main force or will still be under pressure below 20,000, standing pressure is greater, in the long run, the stable range of aluminum prices is still 1.
85-19,500 years ago, short-term or at the Wanjiu pass has some support, operationally recommended that merchants sell high shipments, downstream for the time being, expected spot
。