December 3 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

In terms of fundamentals, domestic social stocks fell by 15,000 tons to 1.
002 million tons over the weekend, and aluminum ingot shipments continued to increase
.
On the supply side, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, domestic electrolytic aluminum production in October was 3.
13 million tons, down 1.
8%
year-on-year.
Aluminum prices fluctuate at a low level, and there is little room for decline in the medium term supported by costs
.
Alumina prices have recently fallen closer to the cost, and it is difficult for high-energy-consuming enterprises to reduce electricity prices in the short term, even if consumption continues to weaken, the potential downside space of aluminum prices is only slightly more than 1,000 yuan / ton, otherwise production reduction will begin
.

Macro sentiment fluctuates greatly during the week, new strain news and Powell's "interest rate hike" expectations have formed a certain negative blow to the market, but with the digestion of negative sentiment, aluminum prices ushered in a bottoming rebound, in addition to the recent domestic inventory continued to drive the market bullish sentiment, short-term internal and external aluminum prices or have a strong performance, Shanghai aluminum next week focus on the shock range of 1.
86-19,400, is expected to break through the 19,500 pressure level is difficult, the operation can be bought on demand
.