Demand exceeds supply, and production is expected to continue to increase

Yang Zhenni, Chief Analyst of Dairy Products, Agricultural Products Market Analysis and Early Warning Team, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs

A few days ago, the "China Agricultural Outlook Report (2022-2031)" was released, which forecasts and forecasts the supply and demand situation of China's major agricultural product markets in the next 10 years

2021—

The level of large-scale farming has improved, and milk production has maintained growth

The report pointed out that in 2021, the level of large-scale farming in China will increase, and milk production will continue to grow

Under the promotion of the market and the guidance of the dairy industry policy, the proportion of large-scale breeding of more than 100 heads in the country accounts for 70%, and the average annual yield of dairy cows is 8.

According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the annual processing volume of dairy products was 30.

In 2021, the milk consumption will be 59.

The report pointed out that in recent years, with the improvement of national nutrition and health awareness, the structure of milk consumption has undergone significant changes.

In terms of imports, in 2021, China will import 3,897,300 tons of dairy products (excluding casein), an increase of 18.

In addition, the retail prices of major dairy products all rose

Compared with previous years, the price of raw milk in 2021 will not fluctuate much.

　　2022—

　　The increase in the import of dairy products slowed down, and the price of raw milk remained high

　　The report predicts that with the improvement of the mechanization level of dairy farming and the improvement of production technology efficiency, the average annual unit yield of dairy cows this year will reach 8.

　　The accelerated growth of domestic production capacity and the increase in prices caused by the global supply of dairy products have both restrained imports to a certain extent.

　　As the prices of corn and soybean meal remain high, the import prices of alfalfa grass and oat grass in forages continue to rise, and the domestic silage price rises sharply, which will push up the cost of feed

　　The next 10 years -

　　Milk production is expected to continue to increase, while import growth slows down

　　The report pointed out that in the next 10 years, in terms of production of China's dairy industry, with the large-scale level of dairy farming, the corresponding increase in the efficiency of unit production, and the acceleration of the construction of milk source bases, the output of milk is expected to continue to increase

　　In terms of consumption, the consumption of dairy products has grown steadily, and the consumption structure has been gradually optimized

　　During the outlook period, the growth rate of imports of dairy products will gradually slow down, and the sources of imports will show a trend of diversification

　　The analysis shows that under the premise that there is no fundamental change in the shortage of feed grain supply caused by the structural contradictions in agriculture, the price of raw milk will continue to fluctuate upwards; from the perspective of demand, the consumption structure of milk will continue to accelerate transformation and upgrading in the future, and low-temperature fresh milk will continue to rise.

"China Food News" (04 edition on April 26, 2022)

　　(Editor-in-charge: Yang Xiaojing)