Demand is difficult to improve, PVC main force closed in a narrow range

News: 1.
This week's PVC social inventory fell by 2.
87% month-on-month, an increase of 48.
13% year-on-year; East China decreased by 3.
86% month-on-month and 67.
23% higher than last year; South China increased by 2.
7% month-on-month and decreased by 7.
32%
year-on-year.
East China 199,000 tons, South China 38,000 tons
.

2.
Recently, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Action Plan for Comprehensive Control of Air Pollution in the Autumn and Winter of 2019-2020 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas (Draft for Comments)", which is also known as the "stoppage order", involving "2+26" key cities
in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi and Henan.
In view of the experience of previous years, the real estate operating rate of these cities under governance will decline in the fourth quarter, and the demand for PVC pipe profiles may
weaken.

Upstream raw material market: the mainstream price of calcium carbide market in northwest China is 3075 yuan / ton, 0; the mainstream price in Shandong in North China is 3175 yuan / ton, 0
.
The price of CFR Far East in the Asian VCM market is 720 US dollars / ton, 0; CFR Southeast Asia is 750 US dollars / ton, 0
.

Spot market: The PVC spot market traded calmly
during the day.
The mainstream price of SG-5 type East China spot market is 6720 yuan / ton, 0; the mainstream price of SG-5 in South China market is 6800 yuan / ton, 0
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Exchange warehouse receipts reported 8840 lots, intraday -100 lots, in the historical high area
.

Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 138585 lots, +3109 lots, short positions are 113343 lots, +1084 lots, and the net position is +25242 lots, which is a net increase
.

Summary: The operating rate of PVC enterprises has declined this week, social inventory continues to decline, and the current inventory pressure is acceptable
.
However, near the National Day, affected by the notice of restricted production in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region downstream, it is expected that it will be difficult to start construction, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is general, and the demand is weak
.
The price of the main contract of V2001 was volatile, and it closed in a narrow range at
the end of the day.
The MACD red bar contracted, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile
in the short term.
If demand does not improve in the later stage, it is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate in a wide range in the medium and long term
.
Focus on the pressure around 6600 above, focus on support around 6435 below, and it is recommended to trade
within the range 6435-6600.