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Last week, the overall performance of Shanghai aluminum prices was a high retreat, and the main contract price fell back to around
14200.
The direct reason for the sharp decline in aluminum prices may be that last week's destocking efforts were less than expected, and the output of aluminum ingots also decreased slightly, and the market's expectations for peak season consumption improvement weakened
.
According to Bloomberg, Indonesia's coordination minister said it would study to accelerate the introduction of a ban
on bauxite exports.
However, according to our statistics, from January to July 19, China imported 7.
94 million tons of bauxite from Indonesia, accounting for only about 13% of the total imports, and the expectations of the supply side have slightly boosted aluminum prices
.
The actual production reduction and maintenance reduction of alumina from July to August involved an annualized production capacity of 4.
09 million tons, of which the production reduction capacity continued to August was 3.
1 million tons, and Shanxi Xiaoyi organized the peak production of alumina enterprises during the Second Youth Meeting, with a local built production capacity of 7.
9 million tons, requiring the implementation of 50% production limit requirements
.
At present, domestic aluminum stocks have entered the peak consumption season, and aluminum social stocks have fallen from 1.
66 million tons during the previous Spring Festival holiday to around 930,000 tons, and the current weekly destocking rate is about 20,000 tons, and aluminum stocks may further decline
.
China has adopted a RRR cut policy over the weekend to release liquidity, but on the whole, the global interest rate cut cycle in the second half of the year has begun, and the economic downturn is inevitable, and pessimistic expectations for the economy have put upward pressure on aluminum prices and limited bright spots in consumption
.
In the short term, the supply side of electrolytic aluminum is still supported, the impact of supply reduction caused by the previous production reduction still exists, and the release of new production capacity still takes time, and it is difficult for supply to recover
significantly in the short term.
The price of alumina on the cost side is slowly moving upward, but the overall electrolytic aluminum is still in the profit cycle, which has a stimulating effect
on the recovery of production capacity.
From the perspective of downstream consumption, considering the impact of pre-holiday stocking, the strength of destocking this week may increase, and the probability of short-term fundamental deterioration is not large, so the pre-holiday price is expected to remain mainly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being, and short positions for the holiday
.
