Destocking is accelerating, and the soda ash market is expected to rebound

Since the end of August, the domestic soda ash market price has bottomed out and stabilized

Many industry analysts believe that the performance of soda ash demand side is relatively stable, and some downstream stocks are expected to be stored and replenished in the near future; The production level of some enterprises has declined, and the inventory has decreased

Insufficient operating rate destocking is accelerated

Since the beginning of this year, the price of soda ash has risen from 2350 yuan at the beginning of the year to a high of nearly 3000 yuan

Li Jiahao, an analyst at South China Futures Energy, believes that the supply of electricity in the south is tightening in the early stage, soda ash production enterprises are insufficient, the inventory has accelerated in the past two weeks, and some alkali plants have raised the factory price

In terms of inventory, Longzhong information monitoring data shows that in mid-August, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was close to 500,000 tons, which was at a relatively low level; The number of days available for soda ash inventory in some glass factories is close to 26 days, which has dropped to an absolute low; The delivery inventory is 200,000 tons, which is at a relatively low level

Baichuan Yingfu analysis data shows that on August 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises was more than 400,000 tons, down 11.

In terms of production capacity, Baichuan Yingfu statistics show that the current total domestic soda ash production capacity is 34.

It is worth noting that from the beginning of 2021 to the present, soda ash production enterprises have maintained high profits

Photovoltaic expansion demand exports can be pulled

Soda ash is divided into light alkali and heavy alkali, of which light alkali is mostly used in daily glass, detergents, water softeners and food industries; Heavy alkali is mainly used in the production of flat glass, float glass, photovoltaic glass

In the industry's view, the incremental demand brought about by the production of photovoltaic glass is the core driving force

According to the data provided by the China Architectural Glass and Industrial Glass Association, from January to July, the new production capacity of photovoltaic glass in the country increased by 63.

In addition, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association will increase the forecast of new domestic photovoltaic installed capacity by 10GW in 2022, and it is expected that the daily increase in photovoltaic glass production capacity this year will be about 30,000 tons, bringing about 1 million tons

In addition, the high price of overseas energy, especially the price of natural gas in Europe, has repeatedly reached a new high, which has made the price of overseas soda ash higher, and has also driven a large number of exports

According to the feedback of many enterprises, soda ash exports are expected to maintain a high level in the next few months

Fundamentals are good in shocks

With the arrival of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" demand season, superimposed overseas demand continues to exceed expectations, and the production capacity is limited in stages, and it is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable and upward

Changjiang Securities Research Report believes that since 2022, the domestic real estate industry has been sluggish, and the demand for traditional downstream float glass has decreased, while the increase in soda ash demand brought by emerging fields is considerable, which is expected to hedge some of the impact

"The supply stage of soda ash is limited, exports continue to grow at a high level, the demand for heavy alkali is stable and rising, the sales of light alkali are improving, and the basic situation continues
.
" For float glass and photovoltaic glass companies with replenishment needs, they can choose the opportunity to seize the opportunity to buy hedging on the disk to reduce production costs
.
Founder Futures analysis believes
.

Li Jiahao said that the follow-up trend of soda ash prices mainly depends on demand
.
In the short term, low inventories, weak expectations, high valuations, and strong basis make soda ash maintain a volatile pattern
.
In the long run, it is necessary to verify the demand through the inventory situation, and if it can be maintained, the price of soda ash is expected to climb to a new level
.
If the real estate policy is frequent, it will also help
to repair the spot price of soda ash.

Long Hao, chairman of Jinding Asset Management Co.
, Ltd.
, believes that under the background of "double carbon", the demand for soda ash in new energy and other fields has increased steadily, while Europe and the United States have been affected by the energy crisis, and domestic soda ash product exports are expected to continue to be strong
.
It is expected that the growth of soda ash demand may continue into the second half of next year, and the price of soda ash will rise
steadily.
The performance of soda ash leading enterprises will continue to grow, and the growth space can be expected
.