Dominated by macro sentiment, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper continues to shift

In terms of spot, on November 22, the trading price of Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 65270-65310 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton; Liter 520-liter 560, up 30 yuan / ton
.
In the spot market, the holders are strong in selling at high prices, the buyers' willingness to receive goods is not enthusiastic, the actual demand is weak, and the overall transaction situation is weak
.

In terms of inventories, as of November 22, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper stocks increased by 625 tons, or 0.
68%, to 91,875 tons; As of November 18, the weekly copper inventory in the previous period increased by 9,641 tons to 85,817 tons, an increase of 12.
66%; As of November 22, the warehouse receipt of Shanghai copper futures in the previous period was 41,815 tons, a decrease of 4,025 tons
from the previous day.

On the supply side, copper concentrate supply is likely to grow strongly in 2023, copper processing fees for Chinese smelters are expected to rise, smelting profits are relatively considerable, production enthusiasm is mobilized, and supply production is expected
to increase.
According to market research, copper concentrate supply is loose, port inventories remain high, copper concentrate spot TC has risen above $90/ton, and smelting profits are expanding
.
Domestic smelting enterprises continued to increase the operating rate, and the output of electrolytic copper increased from
November to December.

On the demand side, the repeated spread of the domestic epidemic has dampened market confidence and prompted the postponement
of some engineering projects.
The real estate sector, supported by 16 financial measures, boosted sentiment in the short term, remained weak
.
The real estate and construction sectors account for a large share of China's copper consumption
.
Therefore, the interweaving of multiple factors exacerbates the traditional off-season atmosphere
.

At present, the overall increase in macro pressure, the suppression of copper trends, the Fed continues to hawkish remarks, market risk aversion heats up, pushing the US dollar and US bonds to stabilize and rebound, copper prices under pressure to pullback
.
The domestic epidemic continues to spread at multiple points, which has exacerbated market anxiety and prompted the decline in the operating rate of copper enterprises
.
Coupled with the weakness of real estate continues to constrain the performance of copper consumption, because the real estate and construction industries account for a large proportion of China's copper consumption, the state launched 16 financial support for the real estate industry and a 200 billion yuan "guaranteed delivery" loan support plan to boost market consumer sentiment
.
In addition, copper enterprises have better smelting profits, the processing fee index has risen steadily, and major smelting enterprises continue to increase the operating rate, and it is expected that electrolytic copper production will rise in November and December, but the increase is limited
.
Overall, the Fed's hawkish rhetoric continues to put pressure on the market, the macro atmosphere is becoming more and more empty, coupled with the continuous spread of the domestic epidemic, which has frustrated market confidence, and the supply pressure has gradually increased, and the weakness of Shanghai copper continues
.