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    Home > Active Ingredient News > Feed Industry News > Domino effect shows the decline of soybean meal in the whole line

    Domino effect shows the decline of soybean meal in the whole line

    • Last Update: 2008-11-03
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Introduction: on Wednesday, CBOT soybean contract fell to a halt in the near future, and the biggest support to maintain the hope of domestic soybean market bulls collapsed Dalian soybean and soybean meal market also fell to a full stop the next day The apparent cause of CBOT's soybean slump is the weak fund speculation in the United States, but it is the domino effect caused by the weakening demand in China China has suspended imports of Brazilian soybeans from four companies after detecting harmful pesticide ingredients in a shipment of soybeans imported from Brazil The Chinese government said it would consider banning imports of Brazilian soybeans in an all-round way if it continues to find quality problems with soybeans shipments imported from Brazil There is an objective environmental background for China to stop soybean import from Brazil At present, the import cost of soybeans signed by most domestic manufacturers from the United States and Brazil is far higher than the domestic price In this case, every import completed by Chinese crushing enterprises means a huge loss, which is the main reason for the disappearance of China's soybean import power In addition, after the middle of April, the central government issued a series of tightening monetary policy, which also hit the large-scale expansion of the domestic squeezing industry in previous years The relative difficulty of capital turnover is also a reason for the lack of import The "sudden brake" of China's demand has directly lowered the price of South American soybeans just listed After the confirmation of the news that China suspended the import of four companies, Brazil's soybean discount has expanded rapidly compared with CBOT's, from nearly 130 cents in the early stage to 170 cents, or even 200 cents in some areas The expansion of Brazil's soybean discount has made the import of Brazil's soybeans profitable in the United States It is rumoured that five ships of South American soybean oil have been shipped to the United States The domino effect of China's reduced demand is as follows: Brazil's soybean exports decrease - prices fall - US import enthusiasm increases - US soybean prices fall This is a chain reaction chain, and the root of the chain is that China's soybean demand suddenly stops The reasons for the weakening of China's demand lie in two aspects: first, the capacity expansion of domestic crushing industry has reached a limit in the past few years, and the momentum for continued expansion is insufficient; second, the strong regulation and control of national macro policies As a result, the problems left over in the "great development" process of the early stage of the crushing industry gradually exposed: on the one hand, since the end of last year, domestic oil plants have blindly imported a large number of foreign soybeans and soybean oil at high prices, resulting in high cost of raw materials and relative surplus of products On the other hand, due to the sequelae of avian influenza, the consumption of soybean meal is still sluggish, and the market is also facing the pressure of rapeseed coming to market At the same time, with the stop of soybean rising, the "dominant inventory" accumulated in the process of price rising in the early stage of the market gradually emerges All of these contribute to the decline of prices, while the decline of soybean prices in China further weakens the impetus of soybean import China's soybean imports account for 1 / 3 of the world's total soybean exports In the face of China's weak demand, the U.S fund has to relocate the U.S price In its latest soybean supply and demand report, USDA has significantly increased its soybean exports and crush, offsetting its forecast of record production in the coming years However, if China's demand really drops sharply, the U.S export volume in the new year cannot be 180 million bushels (4.9 million tons) higher than this year, which is the fundamental reason why the report did not support soybean prices For the global soybean price bull market, Chinese demand is undoubtedly the most important "engine" With the beginning of macro-control, China's "engine" has encountered problems, and the world soybean price has been adjusted on a large scale However, after all, the Chinese market has begun to adjust ahead of the international market, and the sharp reduction of China's soybean imports is also diluting the excess of domestic imports Therefore, in the future, the decline of soybean prices in Dalian will be significantly smaller than that in the international market At the same time, after the full decline, a wave of "domestic" market independent of CBOT market is still expected to start in June.
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