Downstream demand continues to perform well The main force of Shanghai aluminum opened low and rebounded

Market focus: (1) US President Trump threatened that he would not rule out ordering the closure of more Chinese diplomatic missions
in the United States.
(2) WBMS data shows that the global primary aluminum market was oversupplied by 908,000 tons from January to May 2020, and 1.
098 million tons
from January to April.
(3) SMM data, on July 23, the weekly destocking of domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks was 06,000 tons to 702,000 tons, and the inventory continued to decline
slightly.

Spot analysis: On July 23, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14530-14570 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14550 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton
per day.
The intraday market supply is still loose, the morning market trading is acceptable, a large household in the market normal receipt, the later aluminum decline is faster, the market wait-and-see mood is gradually rising, downstream intraday on-demand procurement, because the price of aluminum rose compared with the previous day, the willingness to buy goods within the day is not high
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 101661 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 4202 tons; On July 22, LME aluminum stocks were 1648225 tons, a daily decrease of 3,975 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract are 76657 lots, minus 1621 lots, short positions are 82428 lots, daily minus 2823 lots, net short positions are 5771 lots, daily minus 1202 lots, long and short are reduced, net space is reduced
.

Market research and judgment: On July 23, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2008 opened low and rebounded
.
The worsening pandemic in the United States and the deterioration of Sino-US relations have led to heightened concerns about the economic outlook; At the same time, the profit of domestic electrolytic aluminum production has expanded, which has stimulated aluminum plants to accelerate the resumption of new production; And the rise in the Shanghai ratio has led to the expansion of the import profit window, stimulating overseas source imports, and the pressure on aluminum prices has increased
.
However, domestic downstream demand continues to perform well, and Shanghai aluminum inventories have continued to fall in recent days, which has strong support for aluminum prices
.
In terms of spot, the market supply is still loose, the morning market trading is acceptable, a large household receives goods normally in the market, and the downstream intraday on-demand purchase is the mainstay
.
Technically, the mainstream short position of the main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum reduced its position significantly, and the 5-day moving average turned upward, and it is expected to continue to rise in the short term
.
Operationally, it is recommended to go long around 14400 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 14340 yuan / ton
.