Downstream demand gradually recovers short-term aluminum support

In terms of industry, on February 19, the monthly report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on Wednesday showed that after calculations, the global primary aluminum market was oversupplied by 685,000 tons in 2019 and 118,000 tons in 2018
.
Antaike lowered its domestic aluminum demand forecast this year, expecting consumption to fall 0.
1% to 36.
6 million tons this year, and production to increase by 4.
1% to 37.
4 million tons.

It is expected to add 2.
25 million tons of aluminium smelting capacity
this year.
This week, all localities have been actively coordinating to promote the resumption of production and the gradual recovery of transportation, and the current resumption of production of downstream enterprises is slow
.

Aluminum ingot social stocks continue to accumulate at a weekly level of about 150,000 tons to 1.
25 million tons, and the total inventory of aluminum ingots will continue to grow, putting pressure
on aluminum prices.
The launch of new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in the first quarter has progressed steadily, and the expectation of further release in the long term remains unchanged
.

Overall, the gradual recovery of downstream demand and the rise in costs have given short-term support to aluminum prices, but the pressure of high inventory in the first quarter and the expectation of long-term capacity release have made long-term fundamentals weak, and short-term prices are expected to continue to fluctuate
in a narrow range.