Downstream demand has not yet recovered

News: The overall operating rate of agricultural film enterprises last week was 52.
2%, +6.
9% week-on-week, and +5.
4%
over the same period of previous years.
The mulch film operating rate was 72.
3%, +11.
5% week-on-week and +14.
4%
year-on-year.
Mulch film production has entered the peak period, entering peak production earlier than in previous years, and the order schedule is generally more than
half a month.
The operating rate of shed film enterprises is about 42.
6%, and the operating rate of enterprises is generally in the range of 2-5, +4.
8% week-on-week and +4.
7%
year-on-year.

As of March 13, 2020, the inventory of major domestic polyolefin ports was reported at 370,300 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons
from last week.
It was down 11,100 tons
from last year.
Shenhua coal chemical linear intraday auction volume 950 tons, trading volume 0 tons, high-pressure bidding 250 tons, trading volume 0 tons, low-pressure bidding 550 tons, transaction 51 tons, transaction rate of 9.
27%, Xinjiang high-pressure auction 100 tons, transaction 0 tons
.

Spot market: domestic polyethylene market price shock adjustment
.
Most of the opening prices of the main regional sales companies are stable, linear futures are volatile, merchants have a wait-and-see attitude, shipments are mixed, the downstream atmosphere is not high, and the market transaction atmosphere is slightly weaker
.
As of the noon close, the North China market rose 30-100 yuan / ton; East China market adjustment 50-100 yuan / ton; The South China market fell 100-150 yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 1311 lots, intraday -0 lots
.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 141068 lots, +1962 lots, short positions are 169603 lots, +352 lots, net positions are -28535 lots, and the net space is reduced
.

Summary: The accelerated spread of the overseas epidemic has caused market panic, and the absolute value of the domestic two barrels of oil and petrochemical inventories is still high, indicating that downstream demand has not fully recovered, crude oil rebound has been blocked, weak operation, showing that the pressure above is still large, and Shenhua online auction trading volume continues to remain at a historically low level, indicating that downstream demand has not yet recovered
.
These factors suppress linear prices to some extent
.
However, spot prices are relatively firm, indicating that petrochemical companies have a strong
willingness to raise prices.
The future market focuses on whether crude oil can stop falling and rebound
.
Operationally, it is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being
.