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The recent copper price trend rushed higher and fell into shock, the upward momentum is insufficient, and the hype for low inventory, weak dollar, and strong recovery has been suspended
with the partial departure of long funds.
In the short and medium term, the impact of macro factors still dominates, and the anxiety caused by the mutated virus cannot be ignored, and attention should be paid to the progress of vaccination; The weak dollar is strongly supported, but there may be a technical rebound
in the short term.
The tight supply at the mine end is difficult to change, the supply of scrap copper is relatively loose, the output of refined copper remains high, and the inventory is at an absolute low, pay attention to the accumulation rhythm
in the first quarter.
In terms of news, the dollar index continued to be weak in December, once falling below 90, although the medium-term decline has not changed, but there is a possibility of a technical rebound in the short term, once the dollar index rebounds, the U.
S.
stock market rise is not firmly based, may cause market panic, drag down copper prices
.
China's manufacturing PMI in December fell 0.
2 percentage points month-on-month to 51.
9%, of which the raw material inventory index was flat, while the new orders index fell 0.
3 percentage points, the overall decline was not large, it was still at a relatively high level, and the negative impact was limited
.
Terminal demand, the completion of power grid infrastructure investment in the first 11 months was 394.
2 billion yuan, a cumulative decrease of 4.
2% year-on-year, and the peak of power grid investment has passed
.
According to the survey, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises in December was 91.
02%, a decrease of 5.
81 percentage points from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.
02 percentage points
.
From December to the end of the year, the State Grid orders did not increase, the amount of bidding projects was small, and the cable end had limited access to copper demand
.
The production of air conditioners in November was 17.
716 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.
5%; Cumulative production from January to November was 189.
29 million units, narrowing the year-on-year decline to 8.
8
%.
Exports of air conditioners in November reached 2.
11 million units, lower than the same period in the previous three years, and external demand was still weak
.
In November, China's automobile market production and sales continued to maintain a high rate of growth, of which the new energy vehicle market performed prominently, with sales increasing by more than 1 times year-on-year, and the cumulative sales growth rate turned from negative to positive
.
As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand tends to
fade.
In summary, the spread of mutated viruses at the macro level and the technical rebound of the US dollar demand are not conducive to the rebound of copper prices, while loose monetary and fiscal policies still support
copper prices.
The supply at the mine end is still tight, the inventory of refined copper is at a low level, and the stock of enterprises is more active, which is more favorable to copper prices; At the end of the year, cable demand performance was average, air conditioning and automobile consumption were acceptable, and the driving role of demand side was limited
.
Short-term Shanghai copper or maintain high volatility, pay attention to the pressure around the previous high of 59600, and pay attention to the support of 56000 below, and the adjustment is expected to be limited
.
