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Overnight, the main contract AL2011 of Shanghai aluminum opened high and went high, continuing to fluctuate strongly, and quickly rose and fell
quickly during the session.
The spot price of Yangtze River Nonferrous A00 aluminum ingots rose by 20 yuan / ton, and the average spot premium shrank to 100 yuan / ton
.
According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in September were 426,000 tons, an increase of 7.
7% month-on-month, a year-on-year decrease of 2.
1%, and 395,000 tons
in August.
From January to September 2020, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products totaled 3.
561 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 813,000 tons, down 18.
6%.
The month-on-month increase was mainly due to the gradual improvement in foreign demand and a slight decline in the Shanghai-London ratio, considering that there is a secondary outbreak of the epidemic, terminal demand may be affected, and it is expected that exports will not increase significantly in October
.
It is difficult to significantly increase the export volume
.
On the macro level, there may be no hope of a fiscal stimulus deal before the US election, and China's economic fundamentals have recovered, supporting better than expected
new RMB loans and social financing data in September.
In terms of supply, with the recovery of aluminum prices, aluminum companies have maintained a high profit state for nearly half a year since April, which has accelerated the release of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and 1 million tons of production capacity will be released in the fourth quarter, and the pressure on aluminum prices on the supply side has increased
significantly.
In terms of demand, real estate is that the overall demand for aluminum remains stable, automobiles benefit from the recovery of demand, and it is difficult for aluminum exports to improve
significantly.
Therefore, the marginal increase in demand in the fourth quarter was limited
.
In general, due to the acceleration of the pace of supply-side release and the slowdown of the recovery rhythm of the demand-side peak season, and after the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" in the fourth quarter, downstream demand will turn into the traditional off-season, and aluminum ingots will return to the accumulation cycle
.
The change in the rhythm of supply and demand has made aluminum prices gradually enter a downward cycle
over time.
Aluminum prices are running to a relatively high level, and under the gradual weakening of macro expectations and low inventory support, it is recommended to enter the short
test with an appropriate amount.