Downstream production demand is gradually recovering, and the low support of Shanghai copper still exists

On the macro front, the global economy showed signs of slowing down in April, the energy game between Russia and Europe intensified, high inflation concerns rose, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike landed, the capital market may have a brief rebound, and the medium-term pressure is still strong
.
Domestic attention is paid to the pace of resumption of work, and the expectation of gradual economic recovery remains unchanged
.

In terms of the market, LME inventories fell by 2,000 tons, Asia continued to enter the warehouse, Europe continued to decrease, and the spot discount was $5, compared with the Shanghai copper close on Friday, New Zealand copper fell about $200
.
The EU has listed lead as a target for sanctions on a list, and the risk of disruption to the supply of other metals such as copper is real.

East China may have a slight increase
in inventory due to refinery arrivals.
The pre-holiday survey shows that due to the impact of the epidemic and weak orders, most downstream enterprises have less stocks, and it is estimated that with the recovery of production, copper prices will fall, ushering in a pattern
of supply and demand.
In addition, due to the low import of scrap copper and domestic recycling, the supply of scrap copper is tight, and scrap copper merchants are more willing to raise prices, paying attention to the price difference of refined waste, which may support refined copper
.

On the news front, Chile's statistics bureau announced that Chile's copper production fell by 7.
2 to 462,000 tons year-on-year in March, due to inefficiencies caused by a prolonged period of low operating ratios and a lack
of water supply due to prolonged drought.
Since the beginning of this year, production disruptions in Chile and Peru have been frequent, which may affect the annual supply balance and gradually support
copper prices.

On the whole, copper prices have fallen to a certain extent under the pressure of macroeconomic slowdown, but it is difficult to be sustainable under the overall low inventory pattern, and downstream bargain buying may support prices, paying attention to changes in price structure
.
Downstream production demand is gradually recovering, copper prices are still strongly supported, looking for buying positions
at low levels.