Eco-forecasting

ecological forecasting predicts a process of ecosystem state, ecosystem services and natural capital, which takes full account of uncertainties and relies on clear programmes such as climate, land use, population, technology and economic activity. The spatial range of ecological forecasts can be small, from the region to the mainland and even to the earth as a whole; The information capacity of the forecast is inversely related to the uncertainty of the forecast, and the wide confidence interval means that the information capacity is small. The eco-forecast answers "what will happen if..." These problems are premised on setting changes. Short-term forecasts, such as predictions of harmful seaweed outbreaks, are similar to weather forecasts and hurricane forecasts. Many short-term events have immediate or long-term ecological effects. For example, catastrophic pest or wildfires can rapidly alter ecosystems, and flood-induced nutrients flowing into freshwater or coastal ecosystems can cause long-term changes in the productivity of those ecosystems or into new ecosystem states. Predictions of large-scale, long-term ecosystem changes are particularly important because some of the serious, long-lasting impacts on ecosystems come from chronic causes and are small and imperceptible in a short period of time. Forecasting large-scale, long-term ecosystem changes is more similar to macroeconomic forecasting, which requires expert judgment, analysis and evaluation in addition to calculation simulations and forecasts.
。