Economic recovery boosts market optimism The main force of Shanghai copper rebounded slightly

Market focus: (1) Caixin China's manufacturing PMI recorded 53 in December 2020, down 1.
9 percentage points from a ten-year high in November, but still significantly higher than the boom-bust line
.
(2) According to Mysteel data, as of December 31, China's port copper concentrate stocks reached 548,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 51,000 tons and a monthly decrease of 101,000 tons
.
At the same time, China's copper ore processing fee TC was 47.
6 US dollars / dry ton, down 0.
4 US dollars / dry ton weekly, returning to the downward trend and reaching the second lowest
level in the year.
(3) As of December 31, China's spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 157,700 tons, an increase of 09,300 tons
from December 25.

Spot analysis: On January 4, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 57990-58120 yuan / ton, with an average price of 58055 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 145 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the price of the cargo holder was high, the receiving sentiment was not high, and the downstream demand was general
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 33,107 tons, a daily decrease of 326 tons; On December 31, LME copper stocks were 107,950 tons, down 2,925 tons per day, down for 16 consecutive days
.
As of the week ended December 31, the previous period of Shanghai copper stocks reported 86,679 tons, a weekly increase of 11,530 tons
.

Main positions: Shanghai copper main 2102 contract top 20 long positions 61038 lots, daily minus 7286 lots, short positions 66318 lots, daily minus 8354 lots, net short positions 5280 lots, daily minus 1068 lots, long and short are reduced, net space is reduced
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2102 rebounded
slightly on January 4.
China's Caixin manufacturing PMI data for December maintained expansion range, indicating that the economy maintained its recovery momentum and boosted market optimism; And in anticipation of the US maintaining loose monetary policy, the dollar index continued to be weak
.
The upstream domestic copper mine supply is tight, the domestic copper mine inventory is low, and the recent slight reduction in copper processing fee TC has made the smelting cost high, but the import volume of scrap copper in November increased significantly, and the refined waste price spread widened, and the substitution role will gradually increase; The downstream market demand performance is acceptable, Shanghai copper inventories remain low, and there is limited
space below copper prices.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2102 contract contraction and position reduction convergence shock, mainstream short position reduction is large, and short-term volatility is expected to be strong
.