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The chemical industry exploded! The performance of many chemical leaders exceeded expectations
The chemical industry exploded! The performance of many chemical leaders exceeded expectationsSince the beginning of this year, the activity of the chemical sector has increased significantly, the leaders in various sub-sectors have attracted market attention, and the stock prices of many stocks have repeatedly hit new highs
.
Wanhua Chemical Daily Trend
At present, the disclosure rate of the 2020 performance forecast of the chemical industry exceeds 60%, and 135 of the 199 listed companies have a positive year-on-year increase in net profit, accounting for 67.
8%
.
Source: Wind, Wanlian Securities Research Institute
The performance forecast released by Wanhua a few days ago has further boosted the company's stock price, and it also reflects the high prosperity of the chemical industry since the fourth quarter of last year
.
This year, the "plastic ban" has been fully implemented in China, and replaced by degradable plastic or paper materials
.
After the holiday, the peak season for downstream demand will gradually start, and it is expected that product prices will be easy to rise and difficult to fall under the background of low inventory
.
With the gradual recovery of both supply and demand after the epidemic, institutional sources pointed out that the profit level of listed chemical companies will gradually stabilize and rise in the future
.
How can chemical companies operate stably during the local New Year?
How can chemical companies operate stably during the local New Year?This year, due to the need for epidemic prevention and control, the state advocates celebrating the New Year on the spot.
The operating rate of downstream enterprises is higher than in previous years, and the enthusiasm for stocking before the holiday is strong
.
In 2021, China's petrochemical industry will continue to maintain rapid expansion.
It is expected that the annual production capacity of ethylene will increase by 6.
15 million tons/year and paraxylene (PX) will be 7.
8 million tons/year
.
In January this year, the price of polyolefins fell by 1.
9%~7.
2% month-on-month, and increased by 4.
5%~32% compared with January 2020 (the average price of Brent crude oil was US$63.
51/barrel).
Downward channel after the boom cycle
.
Low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer (EVA) have not added new production capacity in recent years, while demand in the photovoltaic industry has exploded and market supply has been tight, resulting in a steep rise in prices in the past six months
.
Prices of styrene, acrylonitrile, polystyrene (PS), and ABS plastics continued their decline in December 2020, with a drop of 6.
7% to 9.
6%
.
In addition to the aforementioned market environment, on the one hand, due to tight containers and rising freight rates, the export of home appliances was restricted, and the inventory was at a high level
; However, the prices of PS and ABS have increased significantly compared with 2020, and the profits are still rich.
However, there are many new production capacities of styrene and acrylonitrile, and the shortage no longer exists, and the profits of the industrial chain are transferred to the downstream
.
The prices of ethylene glycol, PX, PTA and PET continued the upward trend in December last year, with a month-on-month increase of 7.
6% to 12%
.
The industrial chain ran weakly throughout the year last year, and recently prices have followed the rise of raw materials
.
In January this year, the prices of 4 raw materials decreased by 14%~26% compared with January 2020, and 15.
5%~42.
3% compared with January 2019, mainly due to the significant expansion of aromatics production capacity, and the price and profit level of the polyester industry chain were significantly slip
.
With the gradual recovery of social production after the Spring Festival, it is expected that by the end of the first quarter, the prices of major chemical products such as polyolefin, ABS, PS, butanol, o-xylene, and nitrile rubber will resume their upward trend
.
Faced with the approaching Spring Festival holiday and epidemic traffic control, chemical production and sales companies should actively take measures to reduce commodity inventory levels and ensure smooth logistics and transportation
.
Liquid chemical products need to increase sales in surrounding areas and minimize inter-provincial and inter-regional transfers to reduce logistics costs and improve security
.
Differentiated products such as polyolefins, ABS, and PS should do a good job of synergy between production, sales, research and use, and supply more marketable high-quality products to the market
.
Epidemic prevention and control + how much does the chemical market change during the Spring Festival?
Epidemic prevention and control + how much does the chemical market change during the Spring Festival?Wang Feng, director of the business department of North China Chemical Sales Company, said: During the Spring Festival this year, in response to the country's call to "celebrate the New Year on the spot", coupled with the impact of the epidemic prevention and control policies in various regions, the number of employees in downstream production enterprises is more than in previous years, and the operating rate of enterprises higher than previous years
.
By convention, before the Spring Festival, it is usually the off-season for chemical product sales, but the market has responded well this year.
The sales of chemical products before the festival are better than in previous years, and the prices of most products are still rising.
The inventory is at a historically low level.
It is expected that inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival will be low.
in previous years
.
At the same time, due to the strong momentum of resumption of work and production in developed countries and manufacturing exporting countries such as Southeast Asia, China's chemical product exports reached a peak in November last year, and now there has been an inflection point.
The sales growth rate is not as fast as the production capacity growth.
It is expected that the sales difficulty of chemical products will continue to increase after the holiday
.
