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Epoxy resin 2019 semi-annual reportNote: The epoxy resin referred to in this article is bisphenol A epoxy resin, which is currently the most widely used epoxy resin, and 85% of the epoxy resin is bisphenol A epoxy resin.
This issue summarizes theepoxy resin operating rate of less than 50% in the first half of 2019, and the profit margin was compressed by the sharp rise in the price of epichlorohydrin, but the overall increase compared with last year.
Summary of the epoxy resin market in the first half of the year● Oversupply of low-end products● Increased environmental protection pressure and increased operating costs● Small companies have weak resistance to pressure and gradually withdraw from the market● After the elimination of outdated production capacity, benchmark companies upgrade their technology to standardize the industry’s epoxy resin production capacity Continue to expand, but China’s epoxy resin factories with a production capacity of more than 50,000 tons are less than 15 and most of the remaining factories have a production capacity of less than 20,000 tons.
The production equipment is backward, the technical level is low, the product type is single and the quality is poor, making China's epoxy resin There is an oversupply of low-end products in the market, and products with higher technical content rely on imports.
Due to the oversupply in the market, the low price of epoxy resin, and the weak ability of small enterprises to withstand pressure, they have gradually withdrawn from the market.
With the continuous deepening of national environmental protection governance and stricter environmental safety standards, companies need to respond quickly and increase investment in safety and environmental protection, which increases their production and operation costs (such as storage and transportation costs) and accelerates small epoxy resin plants And the elimination of backward production capacity.
With the clearing of outdated production capacity, large-scale epoxy resin factories developed special-purpose and functional products through technological upgrades, optimized their product structure, and accelerated the standardization of my country's epoxy resin industry.
The price trendin the first half of the year.
The price of epoxy resin in the first half of 2019 is in a volatile upward process.
As can be seen from Figure 1 below, taking E-51 liquid epoxy resin in East China and E-12 solid epoxy resin in Huangshan area as examples, the price of epoxy resin rose sharply after experiencing a bottom shock in the first quarter of 2019.
Mainly driven by the increase in the prices of raw materials bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin, due to the weak demand side, the price transmission was not smooth, and the market was in consolidation after the shock and rebound in the second quarter.
Figure 1 Epoxyresin price trend chart (unit: yuan/ton) As of June 2019, the increase rate of E-51 liquid epoxy resin in East China in the first half of the year was 13.
1%, and the increase rate of E-12 solid epoxy resin in Huangshan area It is 6.
7%.
Epoxy resin production capacity and output statisticsCompared with 2017, the domestic production capacity of epoxy resin in 2018 remained at around 2.
3 million, with little overall change.
It is estimated that approximately 350,000 tons of new production capacity will be added annually from 2019 to 2021.
my country's epoxy resin accounts for about 45% of the global production capacity.
After recent years of development, it is facing the problem of overcapacity.
Table 1 Part of the production capacity statistics of domestic epoxy resin factories can beseen from Table 1.
The production capacity of epoxy resins in China is mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Anhui Huangshan, Shandong, Guangdong and other regions.
Among them, the large-scale installations in Jiangsu are more concentrated, and the production capacity accounts for up to the national total.
About 50%, the production capacity of the remaining regions is relatively dispersed, but most of them are distributed corresponding to downstream demand.
East China and South China are the most concentrated areas of domestic epoxy resin downstream.
The output of liquid epoxy resin is mainly concentrated in Jiangsu; the output of solid epoxy resin is mainly concentrated in the Huangshan area, accounting for 60% of the national solid epoxy resin output, and the downstream is mainly powder coatings.
Figure 2 Epoxy resin supply and demand balance sheet (unit: 10,000 tons) As can be seen from Figure 2, the domestic output in 2017-2018 was about 1.
2-1.
3 million tons, and the overall operating rate was less than 60%.
At present, my country's epoxy resin industry has overcapacity, but with the adjustment of domestic environment and policies, downstream manufacturers have strong demand for capacity expansion, and the demand is gradually concentrated in large factories, and small and medium-sized enterprises will face greater pressure to survive.
As can be seen from the import and export data in Figure 2, China's annual import volume of epoxy resin is between 210,000 to 250,000 tons (high-end mainly), and the export volume is between 60,000-80,000 tons (mainly low-end).
It is concluded that my country's high-quality epoxy resin production technology still has a certain gap compared with developed countries, high-end and special resins still need to rely on imports, and domestic low-end resins have excess capacity and need to be exported.
Supply and demand in foreign markets are relatively stable, and there is no new demand gap available for export.
It is expected that China's epoxy resin imports will decrease in the second half of the year and the export volume will remain stable overall.
Table 2 Epoxy resin production statistics from January to May 2019 As shown in Table 2, the operating rate of domestic epoxy resin factories from January to May 2019 was less than 50%, a year-on-year decrease of 4% from January to May 2018; 2019 From January to May, the output was 430,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 62,200 tons from January to May 2018.
The industry as a whole has serious overcapacity, increased idle capacity, and relatively stable imports and exports.
Industry profit analysis Epoxy resin is currently affected by the sharp increase in raw material prices, and the profit margin is squeezed.
On average, the gross profit of liquid epoxy resin in the first half of 2019 will be maintained at about 2,000 yuan/ton, and the gross profit of solid epoxy resin will remain at 800 yuan/ton.
Around (see Figure 3 below), the overall profitability is acceptable.
In the first half of 2019, the average price of E-51 liquid epoxy resin in East China remained at 18,700 yuan/ton, and the average price of E-12 solid epoxy resin in Huangshan area was 15,900 yuan/ton.
Figure 3 Comparison chart of epoxy resin gross profit analysis (unit: yuan/ton) upstream analysis of epoxy resin.
Bisphenol A epoxy resin is synthesized by the reaction of bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin.
The price of epoxy resin is affected by bisphenol A.
And epichlorohydrin prices have a greater impact.
Figure 4 The price trend of epoxy resin raw materials (unit: yuan/ton) As shown in Figure 4, the overall trend of bisphenol A fluctuated downward in the first half of 2019.
In late February 2019, the price experienced a short-term increase, followed by 3 The month began to fluctuate downward.
Although there was a slight rebound during the period, the price of BPA was difficult to maintain due to weak demand.
The trend of BPA in the first half of the year was pessimistic, and the weakness may continue in the later period.
In 2019, epichlorohydrin has become a star product in the chemical industry.
Due to the continuous decrease in supply, the price of epichlorohydrin has experienced a wide fluctuation in the first quarter, and unilaterally increased in the second quarter.
As of June 30, 2019, the cumulative increase in the first half of the year reached 77%.
Bisphenol A In 2019, China's statistically available production capacity of Bisphenol A was 1.
575 million tons, of which the production capacity in East China was 1.
085 million tons, accounting for 69% of the domestic production capacity.
The downstream of bisphenol A is mainly epoxy resin and polycarbonate.
The proportion of bisphenol A for epoxy resin is about 63% and that for polycarbonate is 32%.
The production of bisphenol A plants in my country is basically directly connected to downstream manufacturers, and some plants are attached downstream for self-production and self-use (such as Nantong Xingchen and Changchun Chemical).
The average operating rate of bisphenol A plants in the first half of 2019 was 83%, and the output in the first half of the year was about 602,000 tons, an increase of 71,000 tons over the same period in 2018.
In terms of imports, imports from January to May 2019 were 275,000 tons, an increase of 81,000 tons over the same period in 2018.
In terms of exports, my country exported about 4 thousand tons of bisphenol A in 2018, and exported 5,600 tons in the first half of 2019.
Exports this year have increased slightly.
However, compared with the increase in output during the same period of this year, the export volume was negligible.
The operating rate of domestic bisphenol A plants remained high, and the output and imports increased year-on-year, but the downstream demand was sluggish.
This was the main reason why the price of bisphenol A continued to weaken in the first half of this year.
the reason.
Epichlorohydrin Epichlorohydrin is mainly epoxy resin downstream, accounting for about 85%, and the rest is used to synthesize glycerin and epichlorohydrin rubber.
In the first half of 2019, the supply side of epichlorohydrin has undergone major changes, and the operating rate and output have declined significantly year-on-year.
The global epichlorohydrin production capacity is about 2.
9 million tons, and the actual output is only about 1.
6 million tons.
The production capacity of my country's epichlorohydrin is 1.
323 million tons, as shown in Table 3 below.
Table 3 Epichlorohydrin production capacity statistics In the first half of 2019, Shandong Haili has not recovered since the suspension of production in 2018, and Jiangsu Haixing has not recovered since the suspension of production on March 22.
Due to the impact of a major explosion accident at the Xiangshui Chemical Plant on March 21, Jiangsu Chemical Industry carried out a major safety inspection, and the Jiangsu epichlorohydrin plant entered a state of shutdown and low-load operation.
The average operating rate from January to May of 2019 was less than 30%, and the output was less than 110,000 tons, which was about 80,000 tons lower than the 198,000 tons in the same period in 2018.
The severe contraction in supply led to a sharp increase in the price of epichlorohydrin in the first half of the year, and the lack of tradable spot in the market.
Manufacturers and traders increased prices and shipments, which led to the willingness to push prices higher in the later period.
Downstream analysis of epoxy resin Epoxy resin has excellent adhesion, anti-corrosion, moldability and thermal stability properties, and has excellent properties in terms of mechanics, heat, electrical and chemical resistance.
Therefore, it can be made into coatings, composite materials, electronic devices, adhesives, molding materials and injection molding materials.
Table 4 Classification and Statistics of Downstream Part of Epoxy Resin Table 4 below lists the applications of epoxy resins in some areas.
It can be seen that the application areas of epoxy resins are very wide, and almost all industrial fields are used in direct or indirect forms.
Figure 5 Comparison of apparent downstream demand for epoxy resin (unit: 10,000 tons) As shown in Figure 5, the main downstream epoxy resins are coatings, electronic appliances, composite materials and adhesives, etc.
The overall downstream demand is showing a steady growth trend.
Oxygen resin used in coatings accounted for 46.
9%, and electronics and electrical appliances accounted for 27.
3%.
Market outlook for the second half of the year The operating rate of epoxy resins in the first half of 2019 was less than 50%, and the profit margin was compressed by the sharp increase in the price of epichlorohydrin materials, but the overall increase compared with last year, the epoxy resin prices are expected to fluctuate in the second half of the year.
The downstream performance of epoxy resin was weak in the first half of the year, and it is expected that the downstream will remain stable in the second half of the year.
Follow-up needs to pay attention to the price trend of epoxy resin raw materials, bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin, and use the price trend of raw materials to predict the price of epoxy resin.
Quotes.
This issue summarizes theepoxy resin operating rate of less than 50% in the first half of 2019, and the profit margin was compressed by the sharp rise in the price of epichlorohydrin, but the overall increase compared with last year.
Summary of the epoxy resin market in the first half of the year● Oversupply of low-end products● Increased environmental protection pressure and increased operating costs● Small companies have weak resistance to pressure and gradually withdraw from the market● After the elimination of outdated production capacity, benchmark companies upgrade their technology to standardize the industry’s epoxy resin production capacity Continue to expand, but China’s epoxy resin factories with a production capacity of more than 50,000 tons are less than 15 and most of the remaining factories have a production capacity of less than 20,000 tons.
The production equipment is backward, the technical level is low, the product type is single and the quality is poor, making China's epoxy resin There is an oversupply of low-end products in the market, and products with higher technical content rely on imports.
Due to the oversupply in the market, the low price of epoxy resin, and the weak ability of small enterprises to withstand pressure, they have gradually withdrawn from the market.
With the continuous deepening of national environmental protection governance and stricter environmental safety standards, companies need to respond quickly and increase investment in safety and environmental protection, which increases their production and operation costs (such as storage and transportation costs) and accelerates small epoxy resin plants And the elimination of backward production capacity.
With the clearing of outdated production capacity, large-scale epoxy resin factories developed special-purpose and functional products through technological upgrades, optimized their product structure, and accelerated the standardization of my country's epoxy resin industry.
The price trendin the first half of the year.
The price of epoxy resin in the first half of 2019 is in a volatile upward process.
As can be seen from Figure 1 below, taking E-51 liquid epoxy resin in East China and E-12 solid epoxy resin in Huangshan area as examples, the price of epoxy resin rose sharply after experiencing a bottom shock in the first quarter of 2019.
Mainly driven by the increase in the prices of raw materials bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin, due to the weak demand side, the price transmission was not smooth, and the market was in consolidation after the shock and rebound in the second quarter.
Figure 1 Epoxyresin price trend chart (unit: yuan/ton) As of June 2019, the increase rate of E-51 liquid epoxy resin in East China in the first half of the year was 13.
1%, and the increase rate of E-12 solid epoxy resin in Huangshan area It is 6.
7%.
Epoxy resin production capacity and output statisticsCompared with 2017, the domestic production capacity of epoxy resin in 2018 remained at around 2.
3 million, with little overall change.
It is estimated that approximately 350,000 tons of new production capacity will be added annually from 2019 to 2021.
my country's epoxy resin accounts for about 45% of the global production capacity.
After recent years of development, it is facing the problem of overcapacity.
Table 1 Part of the production capacity statistics of domestic epoxy resin factories can beseen from Table 1.
The production capacity of epoxy resins in China is mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Anhui Huangshan, Shandong, Guangdong and other regions.
Among them, the large-scale installations in Jiangsu are more concentrated, and the production capacity accounts for up to the national total.
About 50%, the production capacity of the remaining regions is relatively dispersed, but most of them are distributed corresponding to downstream demand.
East China and South China are the most concentrated areas of domestic epoxy resin downstream.
The output of liquid epoxy resin is mainly concentrated in Jiangsu; the output of solid epoxy resin is mainly concentrated in the Huangshan area, accounting for 60% of the national solid epoxy resin output, and the downstream is mainly powder coatings.
Figure 2 Epoxy resin supply and demand balance sheet (unit: 10,000 tons) As can be seen from Figure 2, the domestic output in 2017-2018 was about 1.
2-1.
3 million tons, and the overall operating rate was less than 60%.
At present, my country's epoxy resin industry has overcapacity, but with the adjustment of domestic environment and policies, downstream manufacturers have strong demand for capacity expansion, and the demand is gradually concentrated in large factories, and small and medium-sized enterprises will face greater pressure to survive.
As can be seen from the import and export data in Figure 2, China's annual import volume of epoxy resin is between 210,000 to 250,000 tons (high-end mainly), and the export volume is between 60,000-80,000 tons (mainly low-end).
It is concluded that my country's high-quality epoxy resin production technology still has a certain gap compared with developed countries, high-end and special resins still need to rely on imports, and domestic low-end resins have excess capacity and need to be exported.
Supply and demand in foreign markets are relatively stable, and there is no new demand gap available for export.
It is expected that China's epoxy resin imports will decrease in the second half of the year and the export volume will remain stable overall.
Table 2 Epoxy resin production statistics from January to May 2019 As shown in Table 2, the operating rate of domestic epoxy resin factories from January to May 2019 was less than 50%, a year-on-year decrease of 4% from January to May 2018; 2019 From January to May, the output was 430,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 62,200 tons from January to May 2018.
The industry as a whole has serious overcapacity, increased idle capacity, and relatively stable imports and exports.
Industry profit analysis Epoxy resin is currently affected by the sharp increase in raw material prices, and the profit margin is squeezed.
On average, the gross profit of liquid epoxy resin in the first half of 2019 will be maintained at about 2,000 yuan/ton, and the gross profit of solid epoxy resin will remain at 800 yuan/ton.
Around (see Figure 3 below), the overall profitability is acceptable.
In the first half of 2019, the average price of E-51 liquid epoxy resin in East China remained at 18,700 yuan/ton, and the average price of E-12 solid epoxy resin in Huangshan area was 15,900 yuan/ton.
Figure 3 Comparison chart of epoxy resin gross profit analysis (unit: yuan/ton) upstream analysis of epoxy resin.
Bisphenol A epoxy resin is synthesized by the reaction of bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin.
The price of epoxy resin is affected by bisphenol A.
And epichlorohydrin prices have a greater impact.
Figure 4 The price trend of epoxy resin raw materials (unit: yuan/ton) As shown in Figure 4, the overall trend of bisphenol A fluctuated downward in the first half of 2019.
In late February 2019, the price experienced a short-term increase, followed by 3 The month began to fluctuate downward.
Although there was a slight rebound during the period, the price of BPA was difficult to maintain due to weak demand.
The trend of BPA in the first half of the year was pessimistic, and the weakness may continue in the later period.
In 2019, epichlorohydrin has become a star product in the chemical industry.
Due to the continuous decrease in supply, the price of epichlorohydrin has experienced a wide fluctuation in the first quarter, and unilaterally increased in the second quarter.
As of June 30, 2019, the cumulative increase in the first half of the year reached 77%.
Bisphenol A In 2019, China's statistically available production capacity of Bisphenol A was 1.
575 million tons, of which the production capacity in East China was 1.
085 million tons, accounting for 69% of the domestic production capacity.
The downstream of bisphenol A is mainly epoxy resin and polycarbonate.
The proportion of bisphenol A for epoxy resin is about 63% and that for polycarbonate is 32%.
The production of bisphenol A plants in my country is basically directly connected to downstream manufacturers, and some plants are attached downstream for self-production and self-use (such as Nantong Xingchen and Changchun Chemical).
The average operating rate of bisphenol A plants in the first half of 2019 was 83%, and the output in the first half of the year was about 602,000 tons, an increase of 71,000 tons over the same period in 2018.
In terms of imports, imports from January to May 2019 were 275,000 tons, an increase of 81,000 tons over the same period in 2018.
In terms of exports, my country exported about 4 thousand tons of bisphenol A in 2018, and exported 5,600 tons in the first half of 2019.
Exports this year have increased slightly.
However, compared with the increase in output during the same period of this year, the export volume was negligible.
The operating rate of domestic bisphenol A plants remained high, and the output and imports increased year-on-year, but the downstream demand was sluggish.
This was the main reason why the price of bisphenol A continued to weaken in the first half of this year.
the reason.
Epichlorohydrin Epichlorohydrin is mainly epoxy resin downstream, accounting for about 85%, and the rest is used to synthesize glycerin and epichlorohydrin rubber.
In the first half of 2019, the supply side of epichlorohydrin has undergone major changes, and the operating rate and output have declined significantly year-on-year.
The global epichlorohydrin production capacity is about 2.
9 million tons, and the actual output is only about 1.
6 million tons.
The production capacity of my country's epichlorohydrin is 1.
323 million tons, as shown in Table 3 below.
Table 3 Epichlorohydrin production capacity statistics In the first half of 2019, Shandong Haili has not recovered since the suspension of production in 2018, and Jiangsu Haixing has not recovered since the suspension of production on March 22.
Due to the impact of a major explosion accident at the Xiangshui Chemical Plant on March 21, Jiangsu Chemical Industry carried out a major safety inspection, and the Jiangsu epichlorohydrin plant entered a state of shutdown and low-load operation.
The average operating rate from January to May of 2019 was less than 30%, and the output was less than 110,000 tons, which was about 80,000 tons lower than the 198,000 tons in the same period in 2018.
The severe contraction in supply led to a sharp increase in the price of epichlorohydrin in the first half of the year, and the lack of tradable spot in the market.
Manufacturers and traders increased prices and shipments, which led to the willingness to push prices higher in the later period.
Downstream analysis of epoxy resin Epoxy resin has excellent adhesion, anti-corrosion, moldability and thermal stability properties, and has excellent properties in terms of mechanics, heat, electrical and chemical resistance.
Therefore, it can be made into coatings, composite materials, electronic devices, adhesives, molding materials and injection molding materials.
Table 4 Classification and Statistics of Downstream Part of Epoxy Resin Table 4 below lists the applications of epoxy resins in some areas.
It can be seen that the application areas of epoxy resins are very wide, and almost all industrial fields are used in direct or indirect forms.
Figure 5 Comparison of apparent downstream demand for epoxy resin (unit: 10,000 tons) As shown in Figure 5, the main downstream epoxy resins are coatings, electronic appliances, composite materials and adhesives, etc.
The overall downstream demand is showing a steady growth trend.
Oxygen resin used in coatings accounted for 46.
9%, and electronics and electrical appliances accounted for 27.
3%.
Market outlook for the second half of the year The operating rate of epoxy resins in the first half of 2019 was less than 50%, and the profit margin was compressed by the sharp increase in the price of epichlorohydrin materials, but the overall increase compared with last year, the epoxy resin prices are expected to fluctuate in the second half of the year.
The downstream performance of epoxy resin was weak in the first half of the year, and it is expected that the downstream will remain stable in the second half of the year.
Follow-up needs to pay attention to the price trend of epoxy resin raw materials, bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin, and use the price trend of raw materials to predict the price of epoxy resin.
Quotes.
