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From last Saturday to this Monday, the ethanol market has once again risen in price hikes.
The production areas gradually spread from East China to Henan, Hebei, and Jilin.
The sales areas from Sichuan to East China are all out of stock
.
Judging from the supply data, the operating rate of alcohol continues to rise, but the shortage of supplies has not eased.
The industry can't help but wonder where the alcohol has gone? Since last Thursday in the alcohol market, the price increase led by East China has gradually spread throughout the country, and the price balance relationship between regions has led to all upward adjustments in Hebei, Henan, and Northeast China
.
Since the third quarter, the trend of China's ethanol market has become more and more obscure, and the laws of previous years have been completely overturned.
Most of the companies have no idea about the current price of ethanol and the trend of ethanol in the future.
Many companies are also wondering what factors are giving.
The market has a steady stream of upward momentum? From the perspective of this round of price increases, there are many boosting factors, and demand and raw material costs do give certain support to the alcohol market
.
The downstream ethyl acetate rose by 10% (635 yuan/ton) in just two weeks from November 10 to 23.
The high profit drove the enthusiasm of the ethyl acetate plant to start up.
In addition, some small and medium-sized chemicals also urgently need to release, and the chemical industry just needs to remain stable.
Status
.
In addition, the raw material cassava is low in inventory, and new products are sporadic.
Vietnam's new season cassava production is reduced and a small number of alcohol factories in China urgently enter the market to rush to support the market.
Recently, the external market of cassava is US$197-199/ton FOB
.
The continued low inventory of ethanol and downstream factories may have a lot to do with the rapid pace of the overall increase in alcohol in the fourth quarter
.
Although from the supply side, the operating rate has gradually increased since late October, especially under the stimulus of high profits, the operating rate of Heilongjiang and Jilin regions quickly recovered
.
At present, the operating rate in Jilin has risen from the lowest 36% in September to the current 75%.
However, it is undeniable that since the restart at the end of September, the alcohol factories in the northeast have been in a low inventory state
.
This state is mainly affected by two factors.
One is that the bearish market continues to fail to materialize
.
The industry believes that there is a high probability of introducing corn deep processing subsidies in the fourth quarter.
The regular introduction of corn deep processing subsidies in previous years will usually reduce the cost of grain consumption of alcohol factories, expand the profitability of alcohol factories and stimulate the enthusiasm of alcohol factories to produce, which will cause alcohol to be in a downward channel.
.
Since the second half of the year, the corn deep processing subsidy policy has not been announced as expected, but among the 20 factories (including fuel ethanol) in Jilin + Heilongjiang, only three factories are currently in shutdown, and the gross profit of alcohol production in the two places has remained at 867.
5-1267.
5 yuan/ Fluctuates between tons
.
With such a high operating rate and profitability, subsidies have little incentive for alcohol production enthusiasm and profit improvement
.
As the industry expected the increase in operating rate after the listing of the new Northeast grain and the possible psychological effect of subsidies, they believed that the price of alcohol would fall, which would then suppress the national alcohol market.
Therefore, the price increase was not timely in the early stage of East China, Henan and other places.
Build alcohol stocks
.
To put it simply, buyers believe that the market outlook for alcohol will fall and inventory levels are at a low level
.
The second is the delayed release of alcohol and traders' replenishment demand
.
The Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are the beginning of alcohol demand in the second half of the year.
However, there is not much release of alcohol demand during the double festival this year.
After November, the demand for liquor in winter appears.
The two parties' needs overlap, causing some downstream wineries and traders to have to urgently Buying goods, the large-scale alcohol plants in Jilin currently basically execute orders from wineries or traders.
The alcohol in Heilongjiang is mainly to meet the digestion of local and surrounding small wineries.
A small amount of surplus flows slightly to Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin or Shandong.
The factory does not have much inventory at all
.
Although the number of shipping from Northeast China to East China and South China this year is obviously lower than that of last year, this has also formed a certain degree of support for the market in East China and South China
.
It is this low inventory impact of alcohol factories in many places.
After the short-term emergence of demand, the factories are prone to supply shortages, and the urgent downstream demand to buy goods has made the recent increase in the price of alcohol behave quickly and urgently
.
However, fuel ethanol may not contribute much to this round of ethanol price increases
.
Since November, refined oil products have been raised three times, and the current settlement price of fuel ethanol is 6555 yuan/ton.
The fuel main body is not interested in the price of anhydrous and fuel above 6000 yuan/ton.
Therefore, the trend of anhydrous alcohol in East China this month is 95%.
Alcohol is more gentle
.
For the market outlook, despite the signs of slowdown in high-price alcohol trading in East China, and the tight supply of a small number of factories in Northeast China has eased slightly, there seems to be no obvious pressure on alcohol in the short-term.
.
The main reason is that the inventories of alcohol factories in most regions still remain small.
Some industry players believe that after the sharp increase, a period of stability may be ushered in
.
However, alcohol, which used to have a "sensitive" mentality, has gradually become "confident" in the process of gradual rise in the second half of the year.
The low downstream raw material inventory is still risky for the market outlook
.
The production areas gradually spread from East China to Henan, Hebei, and Jilin.
The sales areas from Sichuan to East China are all out of stock
.
Judging from the supply data, the operating rate of alcohol continues to rise, but the shortage of supplies has not eased.
The industry can't help but wonder where the alcohol has gone? Since last Thursday in the alcohol market, the price increase led by East China has gradually spread throughout the country, and the price balance relationship between regions has led to all upward adjustments in Hebei, Henan, and Northeast China
.
Since the third quarter, the trend of China's ethanol market has become more and more obscure, and the laws of previous years have been completely overturned.
Most of the companies have no idea about the current price of ethanol and the trend of ethanol in the future.
Many companies are also wondering what factors are giving.
The market has a steady stream of upward momentum? From the perspective of this round of price increases, there are many boosting factors, and demand and raw material costs do give certain support to the alcohol market
.
The downstream ethyl acetate rose by 10% (635 yuan/ton) in just two weeks from November 10 to 23.
The high profit drove the enthusiasm of the ethyl acetate plant to start up.
In addition, some small and medium-sized chemicals also urgently need to release, and the chemical industry just needs to remain stable.
Status
.
In addition, the raw material cassava is low in inventory, and new products are sporadic.
Vietnam's new season cassava production is reduced and a small number of alcohol factories in China urgently enter the market to rush to support the market.
Recently, the external market of cassava is US$197-199/ton FOB
.
The continued low inventory of ethanol and downstream factories may have a lot to do with the rapid pace of the overall increase in alcohol in the fourth quarter
.
Although from the supply side, the operating rate has gradually increased since late October, especially under the stimulus of high profits, the operating rate of Heilongjiang and Jilin regions quickly recovered
.
At present, the operating rate in Jilin has risen from the lowest 36% in September to the current 75%.
However, it is undeniable that since the restart at the end of September, the alcohol factories in the northeast have been in a low inventory state
.
This state is mainly affected by two factors.
One is that the bearish market continues to fail to materialize
.
The industry believes that there is a high probability of introducing corn deep processing subsidies in the fourth quarter.
The regular introduction of corn deep processing subsidies in previous years will usually reduce the cost of grain consumption of alcohol factories, expand the profitability of alcohol factories and stimulate the enthusiasm of alcohol factories to produce, which will cause alcohol to be in a downward channel.
.
Since the second half of the year, the corn deep processing subsidy policy has not been announced as expected, but among the 20 factories (including fuel ethanol) in Jilin + Heilongjiang, only three factories are currently in shutdown, and the gross profit of alcohol production in the two places has remained at 867.
5-1267.
5 yuan/ Fluctuates between tons
.
With such a high operating rate and profitability, subsidies have little incentive for alcohol production enthusiasm and profit improvement
.
As the industry expected the increase in operating rate after the listing of the new Northeast grain and the possible psychological effect of subsidies, they believed that the price of alcohol would fall, which would then suppress the national alcohol market.
Therefore, the price increase was not timely in the early stage of East China, Henan and other places.
Build alcohol stocks
.
To put it simply, buyers believe that the market outlook for alcohol will fall and inventory levels are at a low level
.
The second is the delayed release of alcohol and traders' replenishment demand
.
The Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are the beginning of alcohol demand in the second half of the year.
However, there is not much release of alcohol demand during the double festival this year.
After November, the demand for liquor in winter appears.
The two parties' needs overlap, causing some downstream wineries and traders to have to urgently Buying goods, the large-scale alcohol plants in Jilin currently basically execute orders from wineries or traders.
The alcohol in Heilongjiang is mainly to meet the digestion of local and surrounding small wineries.
A small amount of surplus flows slightly to Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin or Shandong.
The factory does not have much inventory at all
.
Although the number of shipping from Northeast China to East China and South China this year is obviously lower than that of last year, this has also formed a certain degree of support for the market in East China and South China
.
It is this low inventory impact of alcohol factories in many places.
After the short-term emergence of demand, the factories are prone to supply shortages, and the urgent downstream demand to buy goods has made the recent increase in the price of alcohol behave quickly and urgently
.
However, fuel ethanol may not contribute much to this round of ethanol price increases
.
Since November, refined oil products have been raised three times, and the current settlement price of fuel ethanol is 6555 yuan/ton.
The fuel main body is not interested in the price of anhydrous and fuel above 6000 yuan/ton.
Therefore, the trend of anhydrous alcohol in East China this month is 95%.
Alcohol is more gentle
.
For the market outlook, despite the signs of slowdown in high-price alcohol trading in East China, and the tight supply of a small number of factories in Northeast China has eased slightly, there seems to be no obvious pressure on alcohol in the short-term.
.
The main reason is that the inventories of alcohol factories in most regions still remain small.
Some industry players believe that after the sharp increase, a period of stability may be ushered in
.
However, alcohol, which used to have a "sensitive" mentality, has gradually become "confident" in the process of gradual rise in the second half of the year.
The low downstream raw material inventory is still risky for the market outlook
.
