Ethylene glycol "Golden Three" misses the appointment and "Silver Four" may fail

In the first ten days of March, the average market price of ethylene glycol rushed to a high of 5,500 yuan in the year (ton price, the same below), and then fell rapidly, reaching the line of 5,100 yuan in the middle of the month, and has been fluctuating at a low level since then

Looking back at the trend in March, although the upstream crude oil prices fluctuated greatly, the ethylene glycol market price did not rise as much as the cost side due to insufficient downstream acceptance

According to Zhang Chi, a ethylene glycol supplier in Liaoning Province, due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts and the reduction of Russian crude oil supply, international oil prices rose rapidly in early March

In the second half of the month, as the sanctions against Russia continued to escalate in Europe and the United States, international oil prices rebounded strongly after a brief retreat

In the pull between cost and demand, sluggish demand dominates, suppressing the ethylene glycol market at a low level of volatility, and the cost pressure of manufacturers is increasing day by day

Terminal demand will continue to decline

The "Golden Three" has already missed the contract.

"Due to the recent outbreak of epidemics across the country, many provinces have implemented closure and control management, logistics and transportation are limited, and terminal demand has contracted

In terms of terminal demand, the negative feedback brought by the epidemic has intensified, and the weak domestic demand and the decline in export growth have brought a lot of impact to the weaving industry

　　In terms of polyester demand, according to Yang Sijia, an analyst at Xinhu Futures, polyester is currently in a pattern of high construction, weak demand, high inventory, and low profits

　　Inventory pressure builds up

　　In the first quarter, with the addition of new production capacity and the restart of coal chemical industry, the superimposed supply of imported goods to Hong Kong continued to increase, ethylene glycol entered a period of excess, and the pressure on the weak demand side was transmitted upward, which intensified the pressure on the accumulation of ethylene glycol

　　Since the beginning of this year, new plants including Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Phase II, Xinjiang Guanghui and Shanxi Meijin plants have been put into operation one after another.

　　In the later stage, according to the production plan announced in the industry, this year, Zhejiang Petrochemical 800,000 tons/year, Shenghong Refinery 2 million tons/year, Sanjiang 1 million tons/year and other new units will be put into operation.

　　Yang Sijia believes that, combined with the expectations of both supply and demand, the overall situation will be reduced by both supply and demand.