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outlook for French wheat production.
As of Thursday (Dec.
15), the delivery price of first-grade French wheat at the French port of Rouen was $330/mt, down $4 from a week ago
.
The price range over the past 52 weeks has ranged from $308 to $
472 per tonne.
15), the delivery price of first-grade French wheat at the French port of Rouen was $330/mt, down $4 from a week ago
.
The price range over the past 52 weeks has ranged from $308 to $
472 per tonne.
Second-grade wheat prices in Argentina's upper river on Thursday were $404/mt, up $7 from a week ago; U.
S.
No.
2 hard red winter wheat was $386/mt, up $2; U.
S
.
No.
2 soft red winter wheat was up $6 at $337/mt.
S.
No.
2 hard red winter wheat was $386/mt, up $2; U.
S
.
No.
2 soft red winter wheat was up $6 at $337/mt.
On Euronext Paris, the most actively traded March wheat futures closed at 297.
5 euros / mt on Friday, down 1.
7% from a week ago; Over the same period, Chicago wheat futures rose 2.
6 percent
.
5 euros / mt on Friday, down 1.
7% from a week ago; Over the same period, Chicago wheat futures rose 2.
6 percent
.
On December 15, Strategic Grains released its first 2023 production forecast, showing that EU soft wheat production in 2023 is expected to be 128.
7 million tonnes, up 2.
5% from this year's 125.
5
million tonnes.
7 million tonnes, up 2.
5% from this year's 125.
5
million tonnes.
On December 13, the French Ministry of Agriculture forecast that the acreage of soft wheat in France will increase to 4.
75 million hectares in 2023, up 1.
7% from this year and 0.
1%
higher than the five-year average.
The increase in planted acreage, combined with favourable early growing conditions, indicates a good production outlook for 2023, although weather after spring tends to have a greater
impact on final yields.
In contrast, the planted area of Durham wheat is estimated to be 4.
4% less than the previous year to 233,000 hectares, 12.
5%
below the five-year average.
75 million hectares in 2023, up 1.
7% from this year and 0.
1%
higher than the five-year average.
The increase in planted acreage, combined with favourable early growing conditions, indicates a good production outlook for 2023, although weather after spring tends to have a greater
impact on final yields.
In contrast, the planted area of Durham wheat is estimated to be 4.
4% less than the previous year to 233,000 hectares, 12.
5%
below the five-year average.
French soft wheat is in near-ideal
condition before winter.
As of December 5, 99% of French soft wheat planting was completed and 98%
emergence.
The good rate was 97 percent, down from 98 percent a week ago and 98 percent
a year ago.
The high rate of good winter crops contributes to the increase of crop yield potential
.
However, it should be noted that crops tend to be affected by more weather from spring, such as soft wheat in many areas this year damaged by high temperatures and dry weather, resulting in a reduction in the good rate to 64%
when the harvest season arrives in July.
condition before winter.
As of December 5, 99% of French soft wheat planting was completed and 98%
emergence.
The good rate was 97 percent, down from 98 percent a week ago and 98 percent
a year ago.
The high rate of good winter crops contributes to the increase of crop yield potential
.
However, it should be noted that crops tend to be affected by more weather from spring, such as soft wheat in many areas this year damaged by high temperatures and dry weather, resulting in a reduction in the good rate to 64%
when the harvest season arrives in July.
FranceAgriMer (FranceAgriMer) expects French soft wheat exports to third countries to reach 10.
3 million mt in 2022/23 (starting in July), up 17% year-on-year and a three-year high
, according to a report released on December 13.
FranceAgriMer officials said strong exports to China would boost export growth
this year.
In the first five months of 2022/23 (July to November), French exports of soft wheat to third countries exceeded 6 million mt
.
Despite the upward revision of exports, FranceAgriMer has barely changed its inventory forecast as other demand is revised
downward.
The report also showed that French soft wheat production in 2022/23 was 31.
128 million mt, slightly lower than the previous month's forecast of 31.
159 million mt and 3.
6%
lower than the previous year.
3 million mt in 2022/23 (starting in July), up 17% year-on-year and a three-year high
, according to a report released on December 13.
FranceAgriMer officials said strong exports to China would boost export growth
this year.
In the first five months of 2022/23 (July to November), French exports of soft wheat to third countries exceeded 6 million mt
.
Despite the upward revision of exports, FranceAgriMer has barely changed its inventory forecast as other demand is revised
downward.
The report also showed that French soft wheat production in 2022/23 was 31.
128 million mt, slightly lower than the previous month's forecast of 31.
159 million mt and 3.
6%
lower than the previous year.
On December 9, the USDA raised EU wheat exports for 2022/23 to 36 million mt (35 million mt forecast last month vs.
31.
92 million mt last year).
Wheat production is estimated at 134.
30 million tonnes (unchanged from last month, which was 138.
22 million tonnes), imports were revised up to 7 million tonnes (6 million tonnes last month, 4.
61 million tonnes last year), and ending stocks were raised to 10.
41 million tonnes (9.
48 million tonnes forecast last month vs.
13.
36 million tonnes last year).
31.
92 million mt last year).
Wheat production is estimated at 134.
30 million tonnes (unchanged from last month, which was 138.
22 million tonnes), imports were revised up to 7 million tonnes (6 million tonnes last month, 4.
61 million tonnes last year), and ending stocks were raised to 10.
41 million tonnes (9.
48 million tonnes forecast last month vs.
13.
36 million tonnes last year).
On November 25, the European Commission lowered 27-EU wheat exports for 2022/23 to 34 million mt, down from 36 million mt
forecast a month earlier.
This may reflect the extension of the Black Sea export agreement, which contributes to the stability of the
Black Sea export outlook.
In addition, the feed consumption of EU wheat was raised by 1 million tons to 41.
5 million tons; Imports from third countries were raised by 1 million tonnes to 4 million tonnes
.
Ending stocks are expected to reach 15.
46 million mt, up from 13.
7 million mt estimated in October.
forecast a month earlier.
This may reflect the extension of the Black Sea export agreement, which contributes to the stability of the
Black Sea export outlook.
In addition, the feed consumption of EU wheat was raised by 1 million tons to 41.
5 million tons; Imports from third countries were raised by 1 million tonnes to 4 million tonnes
.
Ending stocks are expected to reach 15.
46 million mt, up from 13.
7 million mt estimated in October.
FranceAgriMer, part of the French Ministry of Agriculture, said on September 22 that the average protein content of French soft wheat this year was 11.
4%, down from the average of 11.
9%
in the previous five years.
Despite the effects of the dry and hot weather in the spring and summer, the wheat quality was generally very satisfactory
, the report said.
About 59% of the crops are of excellent
quality.
4%, down from the average of 11.
9%
in the previous five years.
Despite the effects of the dry and hot weather in the spring and summer, the wheat quality was generally very satisfactory
, the report said.
About 59% of the crops are of excellent
quality.
The EU27 exported 15.
38 million mt of wheat in 2022/23 (July-June) as of Dec.
11, compared with 14.
49 million mt the previous week and 14.
51 million mt
a year earlier, European Commission data showed.
The top buyer was Morocco (2.
11 million tons, 13.
7%)
.
EU wheat imports so far this year were 3.
54 million mt, compared with 3.
38 million mt the week before and 1.
3 million mt
a year earlier.
Ukraine is the number one supplier (2.
26 million tons, 63.
8%)
.
In 2021/22, the EU27 wheat export volume was 27.
47 million mt, an increase of 6.
8% year-on-year; The import volume was 2.
46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.
5%.
38 million mt of wheat in 2022/23 (July-June) as of Dec.
11, compared with 14.
49 million mt the previous week and 14.
51 million mt
a year earlier, European Commission data showed.
The top buyer was Morocco (2.
11 million tons, 13.
7%)
.
EU wheat imports so far this year were 3.
54 million mt, compared with 3.
38 million mt the week before and 1.
3 million mt
a year earlier.
Ukraine is the number one supplier (2.
26 million tons, 63.
8%)
.
In 2021/22, the EU27 wheat export volume was 27.
47 million mt, an increase of 6.
8% year-on-year; The import volume was 2.
46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.
5%.
Investment funds and financial institutions held a net long 11,327 contracts in the Euronext milling wheat futures and options market as of Dec.
9, down from 31,705 a week earlier
, Euronext holdings data showed.
9, down from 31,705 a week earlier
, Euronext holdings data showed.
On Friday, the euro closed at $1.
0585 to the euro, up from $1.
0506 to the euro a week ago
.
0585 to the euro, up from $1.
0506 to the euro a week ago
.
Note: 1 euro is equal to 1.
0585 US dollars
0585 US dollars