Evolutionary Bioinformatics: Research reveals that COVID-19 has seasonal characteristics

January 27, 2020 // --- In the face of a surge in the number of COVID-19s, the global "city closure" boom has once again started, but should the popularity of COVID-19 be partly attributed to seasonality? A new study from the University of Illinois suggests that's true.
a paper published in Evolutionary Bioinformatics, researchers in Illinois showed that COVID-19 cases and mortality, as well as other epidemiological indicators, were significantly associated with temperature and latitude in 221 countries.
the disease may be as seasonal as the flu," said Gustavo Caetano-Anollés, a professor in the department at the University of London (photo source: www.pixabay.com).
is very relevant to what we expect from now on after the vaccine controlled the first COVID-19 wave.
characteristics of the "100-year-old" viral disease are extensive.
early in the pandemic, researchers and public health officials believe SARS-CoV-2 may behave like other coronavirus, many of which rise in the fall and winter.
but lacks global data.
this particular knowledge gap through the work of Caetano-Anollés and his students.
first, the researchers downloaded relevant epidemiological data (disease morbidity, mortality, recovery cases, active cases, test rates and hospital stays) from 221 countries, as well as their latitude, longitude, and average temperature.
they extracted data from April 15, 2020, because that date represents the largest seasonal temperature change in a particular year.
date also coincides with the peak of COVID-19 infections in the early stages of the pandemic.
then used statistical methods to test whether epidemiological variables were related to temperature, latitude, and longitude.
countries that are expected to be closer to the equator are least affected by the disease.
actually, our global epidemiological analysis shows a statistically significant correlation between temperature and morbidity, mortality, recovery and active cases," said Caetano-Anollés, a professor at the University of The Associated States.
the same trend in latitude, but the longitude did not meet our expectations," Caetano-Anollés said.
although temperature and latitude are clearly associated with COVID-19 cases, the researchers were quick to point out that climate is only one factor in the global increase in seasonal COVID-19 incidence.
they reflect other factors by standardizing raw epidemiological data to disease rates per capita and assigning each country a risk index that reflects public health preparedness and the rate of mergers in the population.
the idea is that if the disease is spreading in countries with insufficient resources or diabetes, obesity or an above-average incidence of geriatrics, then the risk index seems to be more important than temperature in the analysis.
this is not the case, and the index has nothing to do with disease indicators.
work by Caetano-Anollés and colleagues identified regions of the SARS-CoV-2 virus genome that rapidly mutate, some of which represent new virus variants from the UK, while others became more stable.
(Bioon.com) Source: Global analysiss suggests COVID-19 is local Original source: Prakruthi Burra et al, Simon and Latitude Correlate with SARS-CoV-2 Electrical Variables but not with Genomic Change Worldwide, Evolutionary Bioinformatics (2021). DOI: 10.1177/1176934321989695