Falling commodities drove polyethylene to extend its decline

Upstream: Affected by the hurricane fermentation effect supporting oil prices and the record high implementation rate of OPEC production cuts, U.
S.
oil as a whole rose steadily this week
.
On Monday, the NYMEX October crude futures contract closed up $0.
02, or 0.
04 percent, at $49.
91 a barrel, the highest close since July 31
.
On Friday, the November crude futures contract rose $0.
11, or 0.
22 percent, to $50.
66 a barrel, a new closing high in about four months, and rose 0.
4 percent for the week, marking the third straight week of gains
.

Ethylene has largely maintained a high volatility pattern this week
.
As of September 22, ethylene rose $6/ton, or 0.
53%, to $1131.
8/ton
.
The ethylene commodity index was 77.
83 on September 22, up 0.
59 points from yesterday, down 22.
21% from the highest point of the cycle of 100.
05 points (2013-03-05), and up 46.
41%
from the lowest point of 53.
16 points on February 03, 2016.
(Note: The cycle refers to 2013-03-01 to present)

Manufacturer news: The operating rate of petrochemical plants this week is around
95.
5%.
The ex-factory price of domestic petrochemical manufacturers was lowered across the board, LLDPE was reduced by about 100-250 yuan / ton, and LDPE was reduced by about 450-600 yuan / ton; HDPE is reduced by about 100-200 yuan / ton
.
The key factor in lowering the price of petrochemical plants is that the futures wind vane is falling, while the market inventory is high, and downstream enterprises are passive in the face of the decline in the market, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude
.

LLDPE futures: Since September 4, the main contract of LLDPE futures 1801 reached a nearly seven-month high of 10605, the market has been falling
.
LLDPE futures extended their decline this week, with the center of gravity moving downward, with a low of 9465 and a high of 9860, down 395, or 2.
15%.

Since September 4, the main contract of LLDPE futures 1801 has fallen by 1140, giving up all of this gain.

In the future, the market can pay attention to whether the key support band around 9300-9350 in the early stage can be effectively stabilized
.

Looking ahead, it is expected that the decline in PE will be mainly driven by the collective decline of commodities, and although the bearish atmosphere of downstream companies is strong, the just need still exists
.
Coupled with the start of the peak stocking before the National Day long holiday and the peak season of agricultural film, the increase in procurement demand has also supported PE prices in a certain sense
.
In summary, PE is expected to stop falling and stabilize
next week.