Family planning will be fully liberalized as soon as March 2020? How big is the impact?

yesterday, the second trial of the tax law caused a lot of concern, the starting point of
5000 yuan unchanged, a new change is that the expenses of supporting the elderly are also deducted before tax.In addition, he also noted another heavy message, estimated that many people did not see:civil code sub-draft no longer retain the relevant content of family planning, and the civil code sub-editing draft will be integrated by the Npcs Standing Committee to the
March 2020 three sessions of the National People's Congress for consideration.means that, if successful, China may fully liberalize family planning
as soon as March 2020. If it becomes a reality, how big will the impact be?jun want to ask: Will you be born?According to the Procuratorial Daily,
on the afternoon of the 27th, the draft sub-parts of the Civil Code were submitted to the fifth session of the Standing Committee of the 13th National People's Congress for consideration, and the draft sub-parts of the Civil Code relating to marriage and family, compared with the current marriage law and adoption law, mainly amend the following five aspects:to modify the relevant content of the prohibition of marriage with disease, the draft stipulates that a party suffering from serious diseases should truthfully inform the other party before marriage registration, it is better to inform the other party that the marriage may be revoked;Add a case of invalidity of a marriage, providing for the invalidity of a marriage registered by forgery, fabrication, fraudulent use of document s,etc.;01 The beginning and end of China's family planning policy China's family planning policy began in
1978, when the family planning policy was formally written into the Constitution, "the state to promote family planning, so that population growth and economic and social development plans in accordance with." In September 1980, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) issued an open letter to all Communist Party members and members of the Communist Youth League on controlling China's population growth, calling on a family to have only one child. In September 1982, the state policy of family planning was written into the report of the 12th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and in December of the same year it was put into practice in the Constitution, "the state promotes family planning" and "both spouses have the obligation to carry out family planning". Since then, the "strict one child" family planning policy began to be long-term implementation.Originally, according to the
Open Letter of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in 1980, when the Central Committee expected to implement only three decades of family planning adjustment, that "in 30 years, the current particularly tense population growth problem can be eased, and different population policies can be adopted." "However, for a variety of reasons, the period of implementation of the family planning policy has been considerably extended.2013, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee decided to launch the implementation of the "separate two children" policy. On December 28, 2013, the Resolution on Adjusting and Perfecting The Birth Policy was voted on by the Sixth Session of the Standing Committee of the 12th National People's Congress, and the policy of "two children alone" was officially implemented.On October 29, 2015, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) adopted the Communique of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) that "to promote balanced population development, adhere to the basic state policy of family planning, improve population development strategy, fully implement the policy of having two children for a couple, and actively carry out actions to cope with the aging of the population." As of January 1, 2016, Article 18, paragraph 1, of the Revised Population and Family Planning Law of the People's Republic of China states: "The State encourages a couple to have two children. "So far, the one-child policy, which has been in effect for nearly 40 years, has come to an end.birth rate is low, the aging of the population has come tofrom
"two only two children", "separate two children", to "comprehensive two children", China's fertility policy continues to loosen., although the
"comprehensive two-child" policy has been in place for more than two years, the birth rate and natural growth rate of Chinese people are still declining year by year and the degree of ageing continues to increase.according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total number of births in
in 2017 was 17.23 million, a decrease of 630,000 from the previous year, and the national birth rate was 12.43 per 1,000, compared with 12.95 per 1,000 in 2016; At the same time, the degree of aging continues to increase, with the proportion of people aged 60 and over increasing by 0.6 percentage points over the previous year. In addition, six of the country's 31 provinces had negative growth in 2017. china's aging speed and scale, unprecedented in the world. China
into an aging society in 2001, and the United Nations expects China to enter a deeply ageing society by 2025 or so, and will continue to enter a super-ageing society at an unprecedented rate thereafter. In terms of scale, due to the large Chinese-mouth base, the number of people aged 65 and over reached 160 million in 2017 and is expected to reach 360 million by 2050, that is to say, one in four people over the age of 65. under the premise that fertility policy continues to loosen, china's birth population is still generally declining and significantly less than expected, which has nothing to do with modern people's willingness to have children. analysis, it is generally accepted that the cost of fertility and the concept of fertility of the new generation of urban families have become the main factors that inhibit the willingness of families to have children. Many young people worry that the high cost of maintenance, lack of financial capacity, or the impact of individual reproductive preferences, making it difficult for the younger generation to increase their fertility rate. 2003 there have been many adjustments to encourage fertility Liaoning Provincial Government took the lead in issuing the Liaoning Provincial Population Development Plan
(2016-2030), proposing to explore more incentives for families with two children. This includes the establishment and improvement of comprehensive two-child support policies, including birth support and early childhood care. We will improve policies on taxation, education, social security and housing for reproductive families. The city of Xianning, Hubei Province, issued the Opinions on Speeding Up the Implementation of the Comprehensive Two-Child Support Policy, encouraging qualified organs, enterprises and institutions to extend maternity leave for two children and above in the policy to
6 months and spousal care leave to one month; Shihezi City, Xinjiang, also stipulates that families with two children
(excluding adoption) can receive hospital delivery allowance of 500 yuan per household and 1000 yuan per household by caesarean section. Two children between the ages of 0 and 3 years old, each household will also give a moderate amount of milk powder subsidies. shaanxi Province issued the "Shaanxi Province
Population Development Report 2017" is a clear statement, to open up family planning in a timely and comprehensive manner, the introduction of measures to encourage fertility, through subsidies for fertility incentives and other ways to increase the willingness to give birth. , it can be seen that pregnancy, post-natal, education, medical care, housing, etc. may be the key areas and directions of development to liberalize the supporting policies of future fertility planning. 04 the impact of full liberalization of family planning? , the full liberalization of family planning will have different effects on urban and rural households. Fang Zheng Strategy said in a report that for rural families, the willingness to have children is influenced by traditional ideas, in order to supplement the labor force and
"child care and prevent old age", the majority of rural families tend to have more children. Full liberalization of family planning would encourage such families to have children. And for urban families, the forthcoming property tax may involve a per capita tax-free area, one more child will increase the tax-exempt area of the family, urban families will therefore tend to have more children, and the full liberalization of family planning will also promote the willingness of such families to have children. Of course, there are disadvantages, such as the fact that the cost of raising children in urban areas is much higher than in rural areas, which may make urban families less willing to have children than rural families. , the full liberalization of family planning will stimulate infant consumption market economy.
90 is the main audience for the full liberalization of family planning policy, but also the future infant market is the main consumer, they will represent the main infant market consumption concept. Fangzheng strategy in the report summarized the characteristics of
after 90 parents consumption, including strict requirements for infant product quality and safety, brand loyalty increase; Therefore, correspondingly, the total liberalization of family planning brought about by the increase in consumption will focus on the following aspects: product quality and safety will become the primary choice of future infant market consumption basis, building a safe and reliable brand image is the top priority of industry development. the level of consumption, the current infant market to low- and medium-grade products, it is difficult to meet the diverse needs of consumers. The future demand for high-end products to expand, all-round multi-level products and services is an important direction of industry development. of pre-school education, such as early education and interest classes, and standardized and safe pre-school institutions are the first choice for parents after
90. 05 it urgent to fully liberalize fertility? , ren Zeping of the Evergrande Institute, said in a report in March that the urgency of encouraging two children and liberalizing them across the country was growing. According to international experience, the total fertility rate of the population is inverted
U pattern, that is, as per capita income levels rise, total fertility rises and declines first, which is why advanced economies such as Europe and Japan have lower fertility rates. Moreover, taking history as a guide, Japan, Germany, Russia and other countries have already introduced policies to encourage fertility, including maternity benefits, tax incentives, maternity leave extension, etc. , but only a few countries have obvious effects, fertility rate has rebounded significantly. said at the time that the policy of encouraging two children should be implemented as soon as possible and even fully liberalizing fertility. On the basis Chinese improving the health quality of human capital, we will vigorously improve the level of human capital and promote China's transformation from a demographic dividend to a human capital dividend. As soon as possible to break the urban and rural household registration restrictions to promote the free movement of the population, as soon as possible to break the factor monopoly to promote education reform to promote the movement of people's social classes, and further promote the equalization of public services and the civilization of migrant workers. We will further promote the construction of the old-age pension system and actively respond to the impact of the rapid aging that has already arrived.