Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released the latest data on the production and market operation of pigs nationwide.
The head of the Animal husbandry and veterinary bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that in October pig storage column and can breed sow storage column continued to grow, the previous period of new production capacity has been released, pig out of the column increased month by month, the recent period of pork market supply significantly improved, price volatility down.
with the arrival of the winter consumption season, pork consumption will continue to grow, but the resumption of production will lead to a significant increase in pork supply, pork market supply situation is expected to further improve.
, can breed sows and pig storage column faster growth, breeding pigs and piglets production and sales of two boom.
monitoring, in October can breed 39.5 million sows, 13 consecutive months of growth, an increase of 32% over the same period last year; There were 387 million pigs in the pig population, an increase of 27% over the same period last year for the 9th consecutive month.
pig production capacity has now returned to about 88% by the end of 2017.
this trend, in the second quarter of next year, the national pig storage column will basically return to the level of normal years.
farmers actively supplement the bar expansion, in October, another 728 new-scale pig farms put into operation, so far this year, the new-scale pig farm put into operation has reached a cumulative total of 13,000, and another 15,000 empty column-scale pig farms began to recuperate last year.
the ability to breed sows increased significantly, with sales of binary sows in pig-growing enterprises increasing by 102.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters.
continued to increase, supply gradually relaxed, prices fell sharply.
the price of piglets in some provinces has dropped from a peak of about 2000 yuan per head to less than 1000 yuan.
" pig market has increased significantly, and pork prices have fallen sharply for more than two months in a row.
" the person in charge said, from piglets to fat pigs fattening cycle is generally six months.
of new production capacity in the early part of the year, the supply of listed fat pigs increased significantly.
year-on-year increase in pig outings in September, the first year-on-year increase after 25 months of decline.
38.5 per cent year-on-year in October, growth continued to expand and pork market supply improved significantly.
pork prices have fallen for more than two months in a row since September.
the second week of November, pork prices at the National Market fell back to 46.47 yuan per kilogram, down 18.0% year-on-year and more than 13 yuan lower than the peak price in the third week of February.
with the arrival of the winter, especially the Spring Festival consumption season, pork consumption will continue to grow, but the resumption of production will lead to a significant increase in pork supply, pork market supply situation is expected to further improve.
supply side, with the gradual release of new capacity, the listed fat pigs will further expand, it is estimated that next year's New Year's Day spring festival (December 2020 to February 2021) pork supply increased by about 30% year-on-year.
demand, increased consumption during the Spring Festival on New Year's Day is likely to lead to a wave of increases in pork prices (typically 6 to 10 per cent in normal years), but overall will be lower than the level of the same period last year.
note that since this year, the domestic has ushered in 8 rounds of feed price increases, overlaying the cost of epidemic prevention and control, pig breeding costs continue to rise.
with the increase in the cost of raising pigs, the market risk of fattening households buying piglets at high prices in the early period increased.
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the cost of a commercial fat pig in October was 1,850 yuan, an increase of 260 yuan over the African swine fever before the outbreak.
, corn prices increased feed costs by 80 yuan, epidemic prevention costs by 130 yuan, dung treatment costs increased by 50 yuan.
the person in charge reminded: "It is important to note that the previous high price to buy piglets of professional fattening farmers farming profits narrowed significantly."
the national average price of live pigs fell to 29.74 yuan per kilogram in the second week of November, and if it falls another 3 yuan to 4 yuan, professional fatteners may lose money.