February 2 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

From the perspective of aluminum fundamentals, there is a seasonal decline in supply and demand
.
The profit of electrolytic aluminum smelting is still good, and the supply side is mainly subject to the decline in production days in February; The reduction in demand is more obvious, before and after the Spring Festival is the accumulation cycle, but excluding the reserve before the holiday, the total extent of accumulation this year or lower than market expectations, which also gives investors a psychological support, but the processing industry will then appear production and demand mismatch problems, pre-holiday production failed to digest in time, to wait for post-holiday digestion, after the holiday according to the current epidemic prevention standards can start on time is still unknown, that is, part of the aluminum ingot accumulation warehouse in advance into downstream finished product inventory
.

From this point of view, the optimism of the pre-holiday reserve may not be able to continue to the post-holiday, but if the pre-holiday aluminum price rises, it will become a major factor
for bears after the holiday.
The first quarter is not the season of all-out long, often under the high price and profit will have a return action, the operation temporarily maintain the bearish strategy, cautious before the holiday
.