Fertilizer winter storage market is not calm: prices of various fertilizers are rising

This year's fertilizer winter storage market is not as calm as it used to be.
It is understood that the prices of a number of chemical fertilizers have risen, from urea to phosphate fertilizers to potash fertilizers.
And with the continuous expansion of raw materials, the price of compound fertilizer will also face rising.
The price of potash fertilizer, which is trapped inside and outside, is rising.
At present, the changes in the potash fertilizer market are not only beyond the expectations of many people in the industry, but the price increase is still "rapid.
" According to statistics from Zhuo Chuang Information, 62% of the current mainstream quotations of Russian white potassium at ports have risen to 1900~1950 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week.
In fact, the price of potash has been rising since late October.
"Affected by the low stock of potash fertilizer in ports and the lack of border trade sources, the price of potash fertilizer in Northeast China took the lead to rise.
" Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Li Feng said, coupled with the increase in domestic potash fertilizer market suspension and sales suspension in November, the price of potash fertilizer has been increasing.
rise.
However, Li Feng emphasized that the continuous increase in potash prices is not supported by demand, and there are more speculation factors.
“Currently, the poor transportation capacity of domestic potash fertilizer has hindered the transportation of goods in Qinghai.
In this way, when domestic potash fertilizer cannot be shipped out and some ports have fewer supplies, merchants also want to take advantage of the period of winter storage of chemical fertilizers through suspension of reports and sales.
The lower potash fertilizer prices in the early stage were furious.
” It is understood that the transaction price of 62% Russian white potassium at the port was 1720~1730 yuan/ton before the domestic potash market stopped selling, and the current price increase has changed almost every day.
In addition, as the prices of urea and phosphate fertilizer continue to rise, it has formed a certain degree of support for the continued rise of potash fertilizer prices.
Industry insiders pointed out that the market has a strong bullish atmosphere for the prices of urea and phosphate fertilizers from November to December.
Driven by this, it is expected that potash prices still have room to rise.
In this regard, Li Feng believes that the current price of potash fertilizer is already at a relatively high level, especially the source of supply before the market ceases to be digested, even if its price rises, it is mostly "inflated.
" "The current stock of potash fertilizer in Shandong Port reaches more than 900,000 tons, which also shows that the demand side of the market has not improved.
The price increase in the later period is still affected by speculation factors.
" At the same time, Li Feng said frankly that the potash fertilizer market will be full in the future.
More uncertainty.
He analyzed that the current coal supply is relatively tight, and it is uncertain whether the railway transportation capacity can be improved in the later period, especially as the time of Spring Festival transportation is getting closer and closer after New Year's Day, the railway transportation capacity may become more tight.
On the other hand, freight rates such as railways and highways have been increased, and it is uncertain whether domestic potash can be shipped from Qinghai in time.
The cost of raw materials will rise and the price of compound fertilizer may rise.
At present, the price of compound fertilizer for winter storage has not yet been determined, especially in the annual China meeting held in early November.
There was no price-oriented information at the Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Industry Exhibition.
It is understood that most companies currently implement a temporary pricing and interest calculation policy, that is, temporarily implementing the autumn fertilizer quotation, incentivizing dealers to pay interest first, and then settle the final price after the winter storage price is determined.
"The price of winter storage has not been determined, or is it because the current overall price of raw materials is rising, and the production cost of the company is also rising.
Once the price is not set properly, a second price adjustment will not only delay the dealer's fertilizer preparation, but also lose the company.
"The benefits of the company.
" Li Feng, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said that the current price of compound fertilizer and the actual transaction price are quite different, and the overall price discount has decreased.
Li Feng further analyzed that the winter fertilizer reserves are all for use in March and April next year.
Due to the longer period of fertilizer preparation, the price of winter fertilizer is generally lower than that of autumn fertilizer, so that it can attract more customers.
However, this winter fertilizer reserve just caught up with the increase in raw material prices, so it is expected that the winter storage price of compound fertilizer may rise.
"The autumn price of 45% chlorine-based general-purpose compound fertilizer is about 1650~1700 yuan/ton, but now the price of raw materials has risen, and the quotation has reached 1700~1750 yuan/ton, and it is still being adjusted.
On the whole, fertilizer prices in November and December The overall outlook is bullish.
" Aiger Agricultural Analyst Peng Qian also emphasized that due to rising raw material prices, most compound fertilizer companies want to increase the winter storage price of compound fertilizer.
Coupled with the increase in freight rates, dealers will receive higher prices, so downstream dealers tend to be cautious and wait-and-see.
"Some dealers even said that it is very likely that winter storage will not be carried out this year.
" Peng Qian also pointed out that the price of compound fertilizer winter storage will basically be announced in mid-November of the previous year.
However, most companies have not announced the price this year, and this year's terminal fertilizer is still in the doldrums.
Related.
"Food prices continue to fall, and terminal farmers' enthusiasm for fertilizer use has been affected to a certain extent.
" Therefore, compound fertilizer companies want to raise prices on the one hand, and on the other hand have to consider downstream acceptance, so they have been slow to price easily.
"Since last year, the overall price of grain has been lowered, and the pockets of farmers have been relatively small, and the enthusiasm for preparing fertilizer has not been very high.
Moreover, the enthusiasm of agricultural material companies for preparing fertilizer is also not very high.
" Li Feng said, the current downstream farmers Funding companies mostly use the credit sales model for farmers’ purchases, but the grain market during this period is not very good, and farmers can’t repay the surplus money they have in time.
This also leads to slower capital turnover of the agricultural resources company and inactive fertilizer preparation.
Due to the current pressure on compound fertilizer production costs, the price increase of winter storage may become inevitable, but the weak downstream demand has also become an obstacle to the market's upward trend.
In this regard, Chen Hong, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, believes that the price of compound fertilizer winter storage may temporarily increase.
If the demand is still difficult to pick up in the later period, the actual transaction price may be approved by sales.