Food prospect (12.21)

OA show ('918 '); Bureau of economic research, U.S Department of agriculture 1 Key points: 1 The forecast of grain and corn export is lower than that of last month, and the inventory is increased 2 The export of barley is increased, and the export of sorghum and oats is the same as that of last month 3 The global consumption of jade and rice is reduced this month 4 The forecast of corn export of U.S is reduced, Compared with last month's forecast, Argentina's corn export forecast is up-regulated 5 Compared with last month's forecast, the U.S Food Export forecast in 2000 / 01 will reach 6200 metric tons, 1.8 million tons lower than the forecast one month ago, but 5.6 million tons higher than that in 1999 / 2000 The ending inventory is expected to reach 4.91 million tons, higher than the 472 tons predicted last month and 300000 tons higher than that in 1999 / 2000 In the market year from September to August of the following year, the amount of four kinds of diets plus wheat used for feed and leftover materials did not change in fact compared with last month's forecast and last year's amount The forecast index of gcqus for grain consumption in 2000 / 01 is 90 million units, a decrease of 100000 units compared with last month's forecast, but a percentage point higher than that in 1999 / 2000 The feed and waste used per gcau unit was 1.85 tons in 1999 / 2000, 1 percentage point less than that in 1999 / 2000 In 2000 / 01, the gcaus of poultry decreased slightly In 2000, poultry production decreased due to the reduction of egg production for baking and the reduction of Turkey slaughter 2 This month lowered the corn export forecast In 1999 / 2000, the corn export forecast of the United States will reach 2.2 billion bushels, 75 million bushels less than that of last month, but 263 million bushels higher than that of 1999 / 2000 The reason for the lower export forecast is the increased export competition due to the reduction of global imports The decrease in exports led to a decrease in the total corn consumption this month and an increase in year-end inventories At present, the total year-end inventory is expected to reach 1754 million bushels, an increase of 75 million bushels compared with last month's forecast, and an increase of 39 million bushels compared with last year The wheat price forecast for 2000 / 01 was $1.65 to $2.05 per bushel, down from $1.70 to $2.10 last month In 1999 / 2000, the average seasonal price of wheat received by American farmers was $1.82 3 The barley export has been increased The consumption of feed and leftovers has been reduced The barley export is estimated to reach 45 million bushels, 5 million bushels higher than last month's forecast and 15 million bushels higher than last year's forecast The strong export sales so far in this market year indicate that the export of the whole year will be stronger than last year As the supply of barley for domestic feed is reduced, feed and scrap usage has been reduced to reflect strong export results The price of barley accepted by farmers has not changed because there is an adequate supply of other diets In 2000 / 01, the price forecast received by farmers will reach 2.10 to 2.40 US dollars per bushel, no change compared with last month In 1999 / 2000, the average price of barley received by farmers was $2.13 per bushel The farm act of 1996 includes important policies to support farmers when the market price of feed is low Non repayable market assistance loan (mal) and agricultural loan subsidy are the key terms Any wheat producer who has signed a production variability contract with the U.S Department of agriculture is eligible to participate in these programs The non reimbursable market assistance loan provides intermediate financing for growers of eligible rations and other commodities covered by the plan Growers take the food they grow as collateral and get the same loan rate as the loan rate established by the Agricultural Service Bureau of the U.S Department of agriculture The loan can be used to meet farmers' short-term cash needs As of December 6, 2000, U.S Food growers applied for agricultural assistance loans for 744 million bushels of corn, 12 million bushels of sorghum, 14 million bushels of barley, and 1.6 million bushels of oats in 2000 These loans can be recovered by USDA's commodity credit companies when the crop matures, or repaid at or before maturity at the loan repayment rate If the local feed price (also known as the farm published price PCP) is lower than the loan rate (plus interest), then the loan repayment rate paid by farmers can actually be lower than the loan rate (plus interest) The PCP is calculated daily by the federal government, based on the end market feed prices and different fixed variables for each county, largely reflecting the impact of transport and other market factors If farmers pay for their loans at a lower PCP price, the difference between the loan rate and the PCP is called the market loan surplus If the PCP on the day the grower pays the loan is lower than the rural loan rate, the accumulated interest can be exempted As of December 6, 2000, farmers had paid off loans for 120.9 million bushels of corn, and the surplus of market loans reached 42.8 million US dollars, or 36 cents per bushel In the case of sorghum, 55 million bushels of sorghum paid off the loan, with a market loan surplus of $1.6 million, or 32 cents per bushel In 2000, the total amount of barley loans repaid was 5.3 million bushels, and the surplus of market loans was 1.2 million US dollars, or 26 cents per bushel For oats, 317000 bushels paid off, with a market surplus of $104000, or 33 cents a bushel If the PCP is lower than the rural loan rate, then eligible growers can choose the agricultural loan subsidy (LDP) instead of getting loans LDP refers to the part where the rural loan rate exceeds PCP on the date of applying for the loan subsidy Once the agricultural loan subsidy has been paid, it is impossible to apply for the food loan If growers choose to subsidize agricultural loans and sell their crops immediately, and if the PCP accurately reflects the local price, they can effectively obtain income equal to the loan rate, in units, part of which comes from the market and part from the U.S government After being subsidized with agricultural loans, farmers can sell their rations, avoid storage costs, or hoard them for a price rise later in the market year As of December 6, 2000, eligible growers were subsidized with agricultural loans worth US $1700 million, covering 5.281 billion bushels of 2000 corn crops, or 53% of the 2000 harvest (for those crops that are made into hay, agricultural loan subsidies are also paid according to the principle of equal amount) The average payment rate is 32 cents per bushel For crops in 2000, sorghum growers received a total of $72.9 million in agricultural loan subsidies, covering 255 million bushels of sorghum, or 55% of the yield of sorghum harvested as grain The average payment rate is 29 cents per bushel For barley, growers receive $61 million in agricultural loan subsidies, covering 221 million bushels of sorghum crop, or 70% of total sorghum production The average payment rate is 28 cents per bushel Oat growers received $37 million in agricultural loan subsidies, covering 124 million bushels of oats, or 83 percent of the 2000 oats production The average payment rate is 30 cents per bushel This month, the global corn consumption forecast for 2000 / 01 was lowered by 3 million tons South Korea's corn consumption fell by 500000 tons on expectations that the country will import more wheat for feed, that Japan's sorghum use will increase, and that corn use will decrease, in part because Australia's sorghum production is better than expected Canada's corn consumption forecast was revised down by 600000 tonnes due to reduced corn production and increased barley and wheat supply Lower corn consumption in Eastern Europe was due to a 500000 ton reduction in production in Romania and the former Yugoslavia, respectively, as a result of a larger than expected impact of the continuing drought These reductions in corn consumption have been partially offset by small increases in consumption in Egypt and Brazil Due to the increase of corn planting area in Brazil, the prediction of corn production in 2000 / 01 was increased by 1 million tons while that in 1999 / 2000 was revised down by 400000 tons In 2000 / 01, the global crude grain production increased slightly, while the increase of sorghum production in Australia and barley production in Canada offset the decrease of corn production However, due to the lower consumption forecast this month, the world's year-end inventory is expected to rise, with the largest increase coming from the United States The U.S corn export forecast is cut, while Argentina's export forecast is up This month, the U.S corn export forecast for 2000 / 01 was lowered by 1.5 million tons to 55.5 million tons (a decrease of 75 million bushels in the market year from September to August of the next year) The biggest reason for the lower US corn export forecast is the increased export competition from Argentina Argentina's production was revised up in 1999 / 2000, with strong export sales in recent months As Argentina is located in the southern hemisphere, its Maize in 1999 / 2000 competes with that of the United States in the second half of 1999 / 2000 and the first half of 2000 / 01 Therefore, the upward revision of Argentina's corn production in 1999 / 2000 increased the competition with America's corn export in 2000 / 01 In addition, the reduction of corn export expectation in the United States is due to the reduction of corn imports from South Korea and Japan South Korea is expected to increase procurement of feed wheat due to increased global supply of feed wheat Rain in eastern Australia during the wheat harvest season has been reported to have a serious impact on wheat quality However, these rainfall also provide excellent soil moisture for summer crops, and Sorghum Planting area is expected to be larger than expected Recently, the government forecast of sorghum production in Australia in 1999 / 2000 has also been revised upward Japan is expected to import part of Australia's sorghum production to replace us corn US corn exports in 2000/01 are expected to increase by 12 percentage points compared with the previous year The global corn trade is expected to decrease slightly, so the increased export depends in part on the increase of the U.S share in the world corn export market China's corn exports are expected to be less than last year's, while eastern Europe's are expected to be very small because of the drought Although Argentina and South Africa are expected to increase their corn exports in 2000 / 01, China's lost market share is expected to become the US's catch-up At the beginning of 2000 / 01, China continued to export corn, which mainly came from huge stocks, but the pace of China's corn export is expected to slow down over time According to the export sales report of the United States as of November 30th, the export sales of corn without shipment were more than 2 million tons less than that of the previous year In the coming months, the progress of US corn export sales will be accelerated.