Foreign epidemic growth period variables rubber lacks upward momentum

At present, the domestic epidemic situation continues to improve, the number of new confirmed cases and new suspected cases in Hubei and other provinces tend to double digits, and the number of confirmed cases is gradually decreasing with the increase of the number of recoveries, and the provinces outside Hubei are basically controlled but need to pay attention to foreign import risks, so although domestic demand can not grow rapidly immediately, it gradually improves marginally
.
The epidemic abroad is still growing, and there are variables, which may even lead to a global recession
.
The domestic marginal improvement (non-outbreak) only hedges part of the global demand risk, so it is difficult for demand to start quickly in the short term to pull the futures price
.

In terms of inventory, domestic imports increased and warehouse receipts remained stable
.
The stock in the previous period was 23.
84 (0.
00) million tons
.
In terms of imports and exports, imports of natural rubber and synthetic rubber (including latex) in December were 730,000 tons, an increase of 8.
96%
year-on-year.
From January to December, the cumulative import volume was 6.
55 million tons, a cumulative increase of -6.
73%
year-on-year.

From January to December 2019, ANRPC supply decreased by 7.
3% year-on-year, and demand increased slightly by 0.
8%
year-on-year.
ANRPC expects that due to the impact of the epidemic, global rubber consumption fell by 18.
6% in the first two months, and the global economic downturn may further reduce the global rubber consumption outlook
in 2020.

On March 12, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) announced the economic operation of
the automobile industry in February 2020.
According to the data, in February 2020, domestic automobile production and sales fell sharply, reaching 285,000 units and 310,000 units, respectively, down 79.
8% y/y and 79.
1%
y/y.
From January to February, cumulative production totaled 2.
048 million units, down 45.
8% y/y, and sales totaled 2.
238 million units, down 45.
8
% y/y.
In February, passenger car sales were 224,000 units, down 81.
7%
y/y.
NEV production decreased by 82.
9% y/y and sales decreased by 75.
2%
y/y.

On the whole, the spot market has been volatile repeatedly, and the main producing areas in Southeast Asia are still largely suspended, but the expansion of the epidemic in Southeast Asia has affected the purchase and sales
of glue.
The epidemic situation abroad is still relatively serious, and the global stock market has suffered another heavy setback
.
Rubber is weak downward, dragged down by demand, short-term rubber lacks upward momentum, will be dominated
by bottom shocks.