Futures Weekly (1.17-1.21)

Methanol: Upside limited

Last week, the methanol futures market continued the previous rally and successfully broke through the previous high pressure level.

In terms of spot, the rise in futures led to an improvement in the sentiment of the spot market, and the spot price of methanol rose as a whole

In terms of operating rate, as of January 20, the overall operating load of methanol production units was 72.

In terms of inventory, methanol inventories in coastal areas rebounded from a low level, increasing to 794,600 tons, but still significantly lower than the level of the same period last year by 24.

On the downstream side, most coal-to-olefins (CTO) units are running smoothly.

On the whole, methanol inventory is still at a relatively low level, which has not caused great pressure on the market, but the demand side has led to the weakening of the upward drive of the methanol market, and the room for further rise in futures prices is limited

(Xia Congcong in the middle of Founder)

Polyolefins: On the strong side

Last week, linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polypropylene (PP) prices were on the strong side

　　In terms of spot, as of January 21, the price of LLDPE market in various regions of the country has risen by 50 yuan, and the mainstream price of domestic LLDPE is 8750~9050 yuan; the domestic PP market has risen slightly, the mainstream price of wire drawing material in North China is 8300~8350 yuan, and the mainstream price of wire drawing material in East China is 8300~8350 yuan.

　　On the supply side, as of January 21, the operating rate of the PE industry was 90.

　　In terms of inventory, as of January 21, the petrochemical inventory was 495,000 tons, and 95,000 tons were removed from the warehouse during the week

　　In terms of demand, as of January 20, the operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film enterprises was 46%, an increase of 1 percentage point

　　On the whole, the supply pressure has slightly eased, and the demand side continues to weaken seasonally

　　(Cheng Xuefei in the middle of Founder)

　　Natural rubber: deep decline

　　Last week, the natural rubber futures market fell sharply

　　In terms of supply, domestic production areas in Yunnan and Hainan continued to stop cutting seasonally, and domestic rubber consumption was still maintained at inventory and imports

　　The weakening of rainfall in the main producing areas of southern Thailand abroad is beneficial to rubber tapping, but the room for continued growth of higher production is narrowed, while the supply slack season in the northeast and north continues, and the output will be reduced seasonally

　　In terms of inventory, on January 21, the inventory of Hujiao increased by 3,949 tons to 243,900 tons; the inventory of TSR 20 increased by 8,472 tons to 86,000 tons

　　On the downstream side, last week, the operating rate of domestic tire factories fell overall
.
As of January 20, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire enterprises was 52.
13%, down 6.
88 percentage points from January 13; the operating rate of domestic semi-steel tire enterprises was 55.
01%, down 4.
36 percentage points from January 13
.

　　Before the holiday, the consumer demand for passenger cars tends to be weak, the pressure on the inventory of finished tires increases, and the operating rate of all-steel tire and semi-steel tire enterprises is greatly suppressed
.

　　To sum up, the natural rubber futures market fell sharply due to factors such as the drop in international rubber prices and weak tire consumer demand.
Downside will be limited
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

　　Soda Ash: Continue to Rise

　　Last week, the soda ash futures market continued to rise sharply unilaterally
.
As of the close on January 21, SA2205 closed up 138 yuan to 2,712 yuan, an increase of 5.
36%
.

　　In terms of spot, the trading atmosphere in the soda ash market was moderate, the supply of low-priced goods was less, the demand for pre-holiday stocking in the middle and lower reaches picked up, the accumulation of spot stocks slowed down, and the pressure on inventory weakened
.

　　In terms of supply, last week, the overall operating rate of soda ash was 82.
06%, a decrease of 0.
75 percentage points from the previous month; the output of soda ash was 549,200 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous month
.

　　In terms of inventory, last week, the national soda ash factory inventory was 1.
8203 million tons, a decrease of 14,800 tons from the previous month
.
Among them, the inventory of heavy alkali plants was 1,037,700 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons from the previous month; the inventory of light alkali plants was 282,600 tons, a decrease of 56,800 tons from the previous month
.

　　In terms of profit, the profit per ton of ammonia alkali enterprise was 464 yuan, down 26 yuan from the previous month; the profit per ton of product of the combined alkali enterprise was 1015 yuan, down 113 yuan from the previous month
.

　　On the downstream side, the demand in the middle and lower reaches has improved compared with the previous period.
Considering the logistics and transportation problems before the holiday, the enthusiasm of glass enterprises to stock up has been improved, the market transaction atmosphere is active, and traders have a strong willingness to purchase
.

　　On the whole, glass manufacturers have recently replenished their warehouses before the holiday and traders have stockpiled goods, which has reduced the inventory of soda ash manufacturers, improved the supply and demand of soda ash market, and maintained strong fluctuations in futures and spot prices
.
But the current soda ash inventory is still at a high level, and it is expected that a technical correction will still be inevitable in the market outlook
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)