Futures Weekly Report (4.4-4.8)

Methanol: Lower under pressure

Last week, methanol futures performance was sluggish, entering the adjustment stage, and the disk surface was under pressure

In terms of spot, methanol spot market weakened

In terms of supply, as of April 7, the operating load of methanol plants was 71.

In terms of inventory, methanol inventory in coastal areas fell in a narrow range, shrinking to 798,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8,500 tons, slightly higher than the level of the same period last year by 0.

On the downstream side, the downstream market started to operate smoothly, the start-up of emerging demand industries reached a high level, and there was still room for improvement in traditional demand industries

On the whole, the production pressure of methanol manufacturers is not large, the upstream coal market fluctuates in a narrow range, and the change in the cost side is limited

(Xia Congcong in the middle of Founder)

Polyolefins: Oscillating Operation

As of the close on April 8, the main contract of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) fell 73 yuan to close at 8,980 yuan; the main contract of polypropylene (PP) fell 59 yuan to close at 8,746 yuan

　　In terms of spot, the spot market price of LLDPE is mainly down, and the mainstream price of domestic LLDPE is 8900~9500 yuan

　　In terms of supply, the operating rate of polyethylene (PE) was 75.

　　In terms of inventory, the inventory of petrochemical producers was 920,000 tons, and the weekly accumulated inventory was 50,000 tons; the total PE inventory was 1,009,700 tons, an increase of 24,600 tons per week; the total PP inventory was 533,900 tons, an increase of 36,300 tons per week

　　In terms of demand, as of April 7, the operating rate of agricultural film was 44%, down 4 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of pipes was 46%, the same as the previous week; the operating rate of injection molding was 55%, down 1 from the previous week.

　　On the whole, the supply side is limited, and the demand side is underperforming due to the impact of logistics and transportation, but export profits have increased, petrochemical inventories are at a reasonable level, and the overall weak supply and demand pattern continues to be maintained

　　(Cheng Xuefei in the middle of Founder)

　　Natural rubber: deep down and shallow up

　　Last week, due to the intertwining of long and short factors in the supply and demand relationship, natural rubber futures continued to fall sharply on one side and rose slightly in case of support

　　In terms of supply, the inventory in Qingdao warehouses decreased slightly, and the inventory pressure was relieved

　　In terms of inventory, as of April 8, the inventory of Hujiao increased by 900 tons to 258,900 tons; the inventory of No.

　　On the downstream side, the operating rates of domestic all-steel tires and semi-steel tires both declined month-on-month and year-on-year

　　On the whole, the supply of natural rubber is strong and the demand is weak.
The downstream is affected by the international and domestic epidemics.
The sales of tires and automobiles have grown at a low rate, and the relationship between supply and demand is bearish
.
It is expected that natural rubber will maintain a low regional shock finishing trend
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

　　Soda ash: callback meets support

　　Last week, as the supply and demand relationship changed from bearish factors to bullish factors, as of the close of April 8, SA2209 closed up 28 yuan to 2944 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 83.
4%, a slight decrease of 0.
4% from the previous week
.
The output of soda ash manufacturers is 560,000 tons
.

　　In terms of inventory, the total inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises is 1.
29 million to 1.
3 million tons
.
The pressure of futures warehouse receipts is heavy, which has a suppressive effect on futures prices
.

　　In terms of spot, the market price rose slightly, the market trading atmosphere was mild, and the supply was stable
.
Spot wholesalers are less motivated to purchase.
Due to the cold repair of a float glass production line, there is resistance to high-priced soda ash, and most of them are purchased as needed
.

　　In terms of demand, many manufacturers' production units have entered the equipment maintenance stage, resulting in a drop in the operating rate
.
Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, energy futures prices including crude oil, coal, and natural gas continued to rise, resulting in increased cost support for soda ash
.

　　On the whole, many manufacturers' equipment has entered the state of maintenance, which has caused the operating rate of soda ash manufacturers to fluctuate slightly at a high level, and the supply remains sufficient
.
Due to the introduction of real estate stabilization policies in various places, the expectation of cold repair of glass production equipment has weakened.
The epidemic has affected the spot flow in the glass distribution center of Shahe area, resulting in an increase in the stocking of soda ash, which in turn is expected to increase in demand for soda ash.
It is expected that soda ash futures will maintain regional fluctuations.

.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)