Global feed market: Brazil launches corn exports to China, US exports may slow

 

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March 2022 corn futures closed at about $6.
7125/bu on Friday, up 0.
2%
from a week ago.
The spot price of Meiwan 2 yellow corn for the December shipment was $7.
8125 per bushel, down 2%
from a week ago.
March 2023 corn futures on the EURONEXT exchange closed at about 304 euros/mt, down 0.
9%
from a week ago.
FOB quotations for Argentine corn on the upper river were $294/mt, down 1.
3%
from a week ago.

 

International crude oil futures fell for the third week in a row this week, mainly due to Europe's proposed higher-than-expected price cap on Russian crude; The pandemic situation in the top crude oil importer is severe and could affect energy demand
.
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) January contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) closed at $76.
28 a barrel, down 4.
8 percent
from a week ago.
Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, for February, were at $83.
71 a barrel, down 4 percent
from a week ago.

 

The ICE dollar index closed at 105.
917 on Friday, down 0.
85%
from a week ago.

 

The U.
S.
corn harvest is coming to an end, and domestic demand remains firm

 

The USDA report showed that the U.
S.
corn harvest was 96 percent as of Nov.
20, compared with 94 percent a year ago and a five-year average of 90 percent
.
Demand for domestic corn in the ethanol industry remained strong
after the launch of the new season corn.
U.
S.
ethanol production averaged 1.
04 million barrels per day in the week ended Nov.
18, up from 1.
01 million barrels the previous week and higher than market expectations and the second-highest since early August 2022
, according to the U.
S.
Energy Information Administration's weekly report.
In recent weeks, ethanol plants in the Midwest have raised spot basis quotations for corn to attract farmers to sell corn
.
In addition, for the first time, U.
S.
oil companies, renewable fuel companies and agricultural groups joined forces to urge the Biden administration to pass legislation to promote E15 nationwide, which can help boost the consumption outlook
for corn in the United States.

 

One negative demand factor is that this year's avian influenza epidemic in the United States has killed more than 50 million birds so far, making it the deadliest bird flu outbreak
in history.
Avian influenza has led to a decline
in poultry populations and feed demand in the United States.

 

Year-to-date, U.
S.
corn export sales down 48.
4% year-on-year

 

U.
S.
net corn sales in 2022/23 were 1.
85 million mt in the week ended Nov.
17 and 630,000 mt in 2023/24, totaling 2.
48 million mt, up from 1.
17 million mt
a week earlier, according to the USDA's weekly export sales report.
Total U.
S.
corn export sales, including exported and unloaded contracts, were 17.
75 million mt year-to-date, down 48.
4% year-on-year and down 51.
8%
year-on-year the week before.
Corn prices in Ukraine and Brazil are currently lower than in the United States
.

 

The USDA forecasts U.
S.
corn exports for the year to be 54.
61 million mt, down 13% year-on-year, mainly due to high U.
S.
corn prices and a sharp drop
in exports to China and Mexico.
So far this year, U.
S.
corn sales to China totaled 3.
5 million tons, down 70.
8%
year-on-year.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture expects China to import 18 million tons of corn this year, down 17.
7%
year-on-year.

 

Mexico's GM corn ban could be loosened?

 

Mexican President André Manuel López Obrado's speech this week seemed to indicate that Mexico's planned ban on GM corn could be a sideline for U.
S.
corn
.
This has helped ease concerns about the U.
S.
government and farmers about future corn export prospects
.
President López said Tuesday he was considering allowing imports of genetically modified yellow corn
for animal feed.
He acknowledged that there is now real pressure
from foreign companies as well as foreign governments.
Mexico is one of the world's largest corn importers and currently imports about 17 million tons of U.
S.
corn a year, mostly yellow corn
for feed.
In recent months, U.
S.
officials have been pressuring Mexico to express strong concern
about its ban on genetically modified corn.

 

Brazil begins shipping corn to China

 

The news of Brazil's corn exports to China is also of concern
.
Industry sources estimate that four to six cartons of Brazilian corn will be shipped to China this month, possibly 368,000 tons, with COFCO as the main buyer, the first shipment
since the two countries signed a new quality inspection agreement this year.
Brazil exported only 62,000 tonnes of corn to China from January to October,
according to the Brazilian government.
Sergio Mendes, director general of Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC), said that if the 2022/23 Brazilian corn harvest is as scheduled, Brazilian corn exports could reach a maximum of 50 million mt in 2023, including 5 million mt
to China.

 

Ukrainian corn is facing difficulties in harvesting and exports are also facing resistance

 

Analyst agency APK-Inform said that due to harvesting difficulties and fuel shortages, Ukraine may have a large number of corn crops left in the fields for wintering
.
Due to low domestic corn prices, the difficulty of field work caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and high fuel prices, it is increasingly
likely that a large amount of corn will remain in the fields this winter.
As of Nov.
17, the corn harvest was only 50 percent complete, with only 12.
3 million tonnes harvested, according to Ukraine's agriculture ministry.

In contrast, Ukraine's corn production in 2021 reached almost 42 million tons
.
Analysts expect corn production to fall to 27.
5 million to 27.
9 million mt
this year.

 

Last week, the United Nations confirmed that the Black Sea grain export agreement would be extended for 120 days
from November 18.
But the week following the extension of the deal slowed the pace of Ukrainian grain exports
.
Since November 19, only five grain ships have been shipped from Ukraine, and the waiting time for ships to enter and leave Ukraine is long
.
Ukraine accused Russia of deliberately delaying inspections of Ukrainian vessels, which Russia denied
on Friday.
The intensification of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has led to high
freight and insurance costs.
Russia has recently carried out high-intensity air strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure every day, causing power outages in half of Ukraine
.
Exporters are buying and using generators so that grain loading runs
smoothly.

 

EU corn production was revised down by 1.
6 million tonnes and imports by 1 million tonnes

 

On Friday, the European Commission expected EU corn usable production in 2022/23 at 53.
29 million mt, down from 54.
9 million mt forecast a month ago and down from 73.
17 million mt last year and the lowest yield
since 2007.

 

EU corn imports for 2022/23 are forecast to reach 23 million mt, up from 22 million mt
forecast a month ago.
If the forecast materializes, the EU will become the world's number one corn importer.

Ukraine will become its main supplier
.