Global feed market: strong demand for ethanol production, US corn rises

Foreign media November 28 news: the week ended November 26, 2021's, global diet market prices mostly higher as US ethanol production is strong, US corn export sales hit a new high, and fertilizer production costs high may lead to next year US corn The scale of planting declined
.
However, South American corn production is expected to be high, and US crude oil futures plummeted, limiting the room for corn prices to rise
.

 

　　On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March 2021 corn futures rose 14.
75 cents or 2.
6% to close at 591.
75 cents/po
.
The March 2022 corn futures on the EURONEXT exchange reported approximately EUR 254 per ton, up 6.
5 EUR or 3.
8% from a week ago
.
The FOB spot price of Argentine corn in Shanghe was US$252/ton, an increase of US$1 or 0.
4% from a week ago
.
The January corn futures settlement price on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 2,658 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan or 1.
3% from a week ago
.

 

　　International crude oil plummeted, is not conducive to bio- fuel demand

 

　　International crude oil futures fell this week, setting the biggest decline since April last year, when crude oil fell to a negative value
.
This is also the fifth consecutive week of decline in crude oil futures, as a new variant of the new crown virus discovered in South Africa has caused investor panic and intensified concerns that the global crude oil supply surplus may intensify in the first quarter of next year
.
The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) January contract closed at $68.
15 per barrel, down 10.
3% from a week ago
.
The global benchmark January Brent crude oil futures closed at $72.
72 per barrel, down 7.
8% from a week ago
.
Due to the close linkage between US corn and crude oil prices, if crude oil futures continue to fall, the center of gravity of corn prices will also shift downward
.

 

　　Fertilizer prices continue to rise, which may affect the planting decision next year

 

　　With the US corn harvest nearing its end, the market's focus has begun to shift to demand and supply prospects for the next season
.
As of November 21, the US corn harvest has reached 95%, which is higher than the average of 92% in the past five years
.
As far as the prospects of corn planting in the next year are concerned, high input costs such as chemical fertilizers constitute a major variable
.
The shortage of global fertilizer supply, and the price hitting a record high, raises concerns that the scale of corn planting in the United States next spring will be lower than current expectations
.
Some analysts believe that, in order to reduce costs next year, some farmers may be part of the corn cultivated land on switching to soybeans or spring wheat
.
For reference, in early November, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture predicted 92 million acres of corn planted in the United States in 2022/23, which is lower than the 93.
3 million acres in 2022/22
.
Soybean sown area is expected to increase to 87.
5 million acres, up from 87.
2 million acres in the previous year
.
The total wheat sown area in 2022/23 was 49 million acres, which was higher than the 46.
7 million acres in 2022/22
.

 

　　U.
S.
corn demand is good, exports hit a new annual high

 

　　The US Energy Information Administration report shows that the current US ethanol production output has exceeded the level before the epidemic
.
As of the week of November 19, the average daily ethanol production in the United States was 1.
079 million barrels, an increase of 19,000 barrels from a week ago
.
In view of the strong ethanol production, the US Department of Agriculture may increase the amount of corn used to produce ethanol in the US by 100 million to 150 million bucks in the next supply and demand report
.

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending November 18, the US’s 2021/22 net corn sales were 1.
43 million tons, a new annual high, which was 58% higher than last week and 40 higher than the four-week average.
%
.
However, considering the increased supply of corn from Argentina and Ukraine, China continues to actively buy European barley and Ukrainian corn, which is likely to weaken the prospects for US corn exports
.
The total US corn export sales so far this year is 34.
41 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.
8%
.
In its agricultural export outlook report this month, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for grain and feed exports in fiscal year 2022 by US$300 million to US$41.
5 billion, of which corn, sorghum and rice exports were reduced by US$100 million each
.

 

　　South American corn is expected to produce high yields, with weather becoming the main variable

 

　　According to the consulting agency Safras & Mercado, the first season corn output in central and southern Brazil in 2021/22 is expected to be 25.
7 million tons, an increase of 19% over the previous year due to the increase in planting area and yield; the second season corn output is expected to reach 81.
697 million tons, a significant This is higher than last year's output damaged by drought and frost
.
Brazil’s corn production in 2021/22 is expected to reach 119,255 million tons, which is higher than the 90.
77 million tons in 2020/21
.
However, the weather in South America still deserves close attention
.
Weather forecasts for the next 6 to 10 days show that the rain in the southernmost part of Brazil is lower than normal, while the temperature in the north is lower than normal
.
Rainfall in Argentina’s main crop production areas is below normal, and temperatures are normal
.