Global food market: U.S. rains improve, food prices fall

 

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December 2021 futures fell approximately 62.
75 cents, or 10.
82%, to close at 517 cents per bushel
.
Meiwan No.
2 yellow corn was quoted at 657 cents per po, down 93.
25 cents or 12.
43% from a week ago
.
The corn futures for delivery in November 2021 on the EURONEXT exchange closed at 192.
5 euros/ton, down 12 euros or 5.
87% from a week ago
.
The FOB spot price of Argentine corn in Shanghe was US$220/ton, down US$24 or 9.
84% from a week ago
.
The September corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 2,567 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan from a week ago
.

 

This week, international crude oil futures fell for the first time in seven weeks.
The breakdown of production negotiations among the member states of the OPEC Union put oil prices under pressure this week, as market participants worried that oil-producing countries might increase crude oil production on their own, leading to global supply inflation
.
However, U.
S.
crude oil inventories and gasoline inventories have dropped sharply, and strong demand from China and India restricts the room for oil prices to fall
.
On Friday, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) August futures closed at about 74.
56 yuan per barrel, down 0.
8% from a week ago
.
The global benchmark Brent September crude oil futures closed at $75.
55 per barrel, down 0.
81% from a week ago
.

 

On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 92.
10 points, down 0.
2% from a week ago
.

 

　　Last week, the US Department of Agriculture supported by bullish data feed grain grid out of the rallies, but this week, led by corn fodder prices dropped again, the main incentive is the US Corn Belt rains, low temperatures will also appear in the short term The rainy weather is very beneficial to the corn crops that have just entered the critical growth period
.
In fact, the weekly crop report issued by the US Department of Agriculture on Tuesday showed that the good rate of corn in the United States last week was the same as the previous week
.
As of July 4 (Sunday), the excellent and good rate of corn in the United States was 64%, the same as a week ago, and the excellent and good rate for the same period last year was 71%
.
Taking into account the rainfall this week, the weekly crop report to be released next week may show an improvement in crop conditions
.

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending July 1, 2021, US 2020/21 net corn sales were 173,200 tons, significantly higher than last week and 58% higher than the four-week average
.
So far this year, the total US corn export sales have reached 69.
72 million tons, a decrease of 3.
7% from the same period last year
.

 

　　The U.
S.
Agricultural Counselor issued a report saying that China’s corn imports in 2021/22 will be lower than some analysts’ expectations due to strong domestic corn production and weak prices
.
The counsellor also lowered China's sorghum and wheat import forecast data
.
In 2020/21 (October to September of the following year), China’s corn imports may be 2 million tons higher than the 26 million tons predicted by the US Department of Agriculture, because of high domestic prices and China’s replenishment of stocks
.
However, China’s corn imports in 2021/22 may fall to 20 million tons, which is lower than the US Department of Agriculture’s official forecast of 26 million tons, and also lower than the 30 million tons predicted by industry agencies.
However, this data is consistent with the forecast of Chinese agricultural officials.

.
The counselor said that his forecast reflects the possibility of further cooling of corn prices in the next year, a slowdown in replenishment efforts, and weak demand because imported corn will eventually enter the market
.
The counselor said that imported corn has lost the price advantage of domestic corn because the price of imported corn that arrived in July has risen to US$453 per ton (approximately RMB 2,900 per ton)
.
At the same time, the September corn futures, the most actively traded on the DCE, fell to the lowest level of 2,594 yuan per ton during the year, down 9.
7% from the May high
.
The counselor pointed out that China’s corn harvest prospects for this year are strong.
The corn output is expected to be 272 million tons, a record high, 4 million tons higher than the official USDA forecast because the planted area has increased by 6.
2%
.

 

　　CONAB, under the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, predicts that the national corn output for 2020/21 will be 93.
385 million tons, which is lower than the 96.
392 million tons predicted in June, but the data is lower than market expectations
.
This puts pressure on the corn market
.
CONAB further lowered its second-season corn production forecast to 66.
971 million tons, which was 4.
3% lower than the June forecast and 10.
8% lower than the same period last year
.
Analysts had expected a greater decline in the supply of corn in Brazil, estimated at around 5 million tons
.

 

　　According to a report jointly issued by the OECD and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the price of corn based on the US Gulf corn export quotation in 2022 will fall from US$188.
10 per ton this year to US$172.
40 per ton
.
OECD/FAO predicts that the price of corn will continue to fall in the next three years, falling to US$169 per ton in 2023, and then regaining its upward trend, rising to US$199.
60/ton in 2030 due to falling inventories and strong global feed demand
.

 

　　The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture this week predicts that the 2020/21 Argentine corn production will reach a record 59 million tons, including commercial corn and farmers’ own corn
.
The Argentine government's usual production forecast data is higher than the domestic grain exchange expectation
.
The exchange's production forecast only includes commercial corn
.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Argentine corn production to be 48 million tons
.
At present, the corn harvesting work has just been completed
.

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture will release its July supply and demand report next Monday
.
Analysts expect this report to show that the 2020/21 year-end U.
S.
corn stocks will be 1.
091 billion bucks, with a forecast range of 957 to 1.
211 billion bucks, lower than the 1.
107 billion bucks predicted in June
.
The ending stocks of US corn in 2021/22 are expected to be 1.
309 billion bucks, with a forecast range of 1.
057 to 1.
540 billion bucks, which is lower than the 1.
357 billion bucks predicted in June
.
Analysts on average expect Brazil’s corn production to be 91.
5 million tons, with a forecast range of 8790 to 97 million tons, which is lower than the 98.
5 million tons predicted in June
.
Among them, StoneX's forecast is the lowest (87.
9 million tons)
.