Global Grain Market: Weather may improve in the Midwest and corn prices may fall

 

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December 2021 corn futures fell by about 9 cents or 1.
63% from a week ago, to close at 543 cents/po
.
The quotation of Meiwan No.
2 yellow corn fell 8.
75 cents or 1.
25% from a week ago to close at 709.
75 cents per cat
.
The corn futures for delivery on the EURONEXT exchange in November 2021 reported about 206.
5 euros/ton, up 2.
75 euros or 1.
35% from a week ago
.
The FOB spot price of Argentine corn in Shanghe was US$246/ton, down US$1 or 0.
40% from a week ago
.
The Dalian Commodity Exchange's September corn futures closed at 2,524 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan from a week ago
.

 

　　This week, international crude oil futures declined first and then rose.
After Monday’s plunge of 7%, crude oil rose for four consecutive days, regaining all Monday’s losses, and slightly rising on the weekly line because the market expects that the recovery in demand will lead to tight crude oil supply throughout the year
.
On Friday, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) September contract was quoted at 72.
07 yuan per barrel, up 0.
36% from a week ago
.
Brent's September crude oil futures closed at $74.
10 per barrel, up 0.
69% from a week ago
.

 

　　On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 92.
91 points, up 0.
2% from a week ago
.

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report shows that as of July 18, the proportion of US corn entering the spinning period was 56%, and the five-year average over the same period was 52%
.
The proportion of corn entering the maturity period is 8%, and the five-year average value is 7%
.
The excellent and good rate of corn in the United States was 65%, the same as last week and lower than 69% in the same period last year
.
Weather forecasts show that the weather in most areas of the corn planting belt may improve in the future, which is beneficial to the corn crops that are in the critical pollination period
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture currently predicts that the average US corn yield in 2021 will reach a record 179.
5 b/acre
.
If the forecast becomes a reality, the total corn output will reach 15.
165 billion cats, a year-on-year increase of 6.
9%, a record high
.
Nevertheless, market participants are still worried about the dry conditions in the northern and western regions of the corn growing belt.
The local spring wheat crops have withered, and the corn condition declined sharply from June to early July
.
Since February, the USDA has maintained its yield forecast unchanged
.
Historical experience shows that only one weather disaster will cause corn yields to be lower than the USDA forecast in July
.

 

　　From the demand side, the US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending July 15, US corn sales for 2020/21 were minus 88,500 tons, the second lowest level in history and the lowest level in the same period in 9 years.
, Mainly because China cancelled the purchase of 160,000 tons of US corn
.
The total US corn export sales so far this year is 69.
77 million tons, an increase of 59.
6% over the same period last year
.

 

　　In South America, a new blast of cold air at the beginning of the week caused frosts in central and southern Brazil, threatening the second-season corn and wheat crops, and it was less than a month since the last cold air damaged some crops
.
Meteorological experts said that it is not yet possible to quantify the impact of frost, and the actual situation will be understood in the next few days
.
The frost at the end of June destroyed the second season of corn
.
The consulting agency AgRural said that the second-season corn that has escaped the frost at the end of June is currently affected by the frost and may suffer losses, especially the crops that are still in the filling stage
.

 

　　According to the Rio de Janeiro Times report on Friday, the Brazilian meteorological agency MetSul said that next week, Brazil may see the worst cold snap of this century, and the lowest temperature will be lower than the end of June and the beginning of July
.
In some of the coldest areas in southern Brazil, the body temperature may reach minus 25 degrees, and snow is likely to fall
.
The current forecast is still a preliminary forecast and may be further confirmed on Monday
.
The polar cold air mass will hit southern Brazil starting on Tuesday and Wednesday (July 27-28) and will continue until the end of next week
.

 

　　The consulting agency AgroConsult estimates that Brazil’s second-season corn output in 2020/21 will be 65.
3 million tons, which is lower than the 66.
2 million tons predicted in May
.
StoneX reduced the second-season corn production in Brazil to 60.
45 million tons, and reduced the total output of Brazilian corn in 2020/21 by 1.
75 million tons to 87.
93 million tons
.
Safras & Mercado expects Brazil’s second-season corn output to be 61.
6 million tons, 22.
4 million tons lower than initially expected
.
The Brazilian satellite remote sensing agency Geosys estimates that Brazil’s second-season corn output this year will be 64.
84 million tons, which is lower than the 67 million tons predicted in June; the total corn output is expected to be 91.
6 million tons, which is lower than the earlier forecast of 93.
75 million tons.
This is because the second-season corn is first Affected by severe drought, frost appeared in some main producing areas afterwards
.

 

　　This week Safras & Mercado predicts that the sown area of ​​first season corn in Brazil will increase by 1.
4% to 4.
4 million hectares and the output will reach 25.
6 million tons; the sown area of ​​second season corn will reach 14.
4 million hectares and the output will reach 84.
8 million tons.

.
Brazil’s total corn production in 2021/22 is expected to reach 122.
6 million tons, higher than the 90.
4 million tons in 2020/21
.

 

　　According to the Brazilian Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC), Brazil’s corn exports in July 2021 are expected to reach 3.
195 million tons, higher than last week’s forecast of 3.
03 million tons, but still 2 million tons less than the 5.
1 million tons in the same period last year
.