Global Meat Market Trend Analysis 2022 and Outlook for 2023 (1)

 

· International meat prices reached an all-time high in June 2022 due to tight global supplies
.

 

· Global meat production is expected to grow
moderately in 2022 due to animal diseases, rising input costs and extreme weather events.

 

· Global meat trade declined
due to pork import demand and economic slowdowns and recessions.

 

International meat prices hit record highs in 2022

 

 

Figure 1 FAO Meat Price Index 2014-16=100

 

International meat prices reached record highs
in June.
With the exception of August-December 2021, when international meat prices rose sharply since October 2020, the FAO Meat Price Index reached an all-time high in June 2022, mainly due to tight
supplies of almost all meat in major supplier countries.
At the same time, global meat import demand has been sluggish in recent months due to the global economic downturn, high food import bills, sluggish
catering and increased domestic production in major producing countries.

 

International beef prices – the most expensive of the four main meats – have risen virtually uninterrupted since October 2020 and reached an all-time high in March 2022, mainly due to limited supply of cattle available for slaughter, recovery of demand for cattle stocks in major producing countries, or tight
supply due to dry weather conditions.
However, since March 2022, beef prices have been falling, reflecting an increase in export supply due to sluggish demand due to lower purchasing power and high prices, with the increase in supply mainly coming from Brazil
.

 

International pork prices have taken the lead in rising
.
Export supplies are tight due to reduced production in major pork exporting countries, especially from the European Union and the United States
.
At the same time, China's pork import demand has slowed
down significantly.

 

International poultry meat prices have risen since November 2020 and reached an all-time high in July 2022, reflecting tight
global supplies.
Poultry meat production has not kept pace with demand due
to widespread outbreaks of avian influenza, rising feed costs, labour shortages and ongoing supply chain bottlenecks.
At the same time, the improvement of poultry meat cost performance and economic downturn have stimulated the increase in poultry meat consumption substitution for consumers in large producing countries, resulting in a decrease in export supply and a continuous increase
in prices.

 

International ovine meat prices declined
in 2022 after reaching an all-time high in October 2021.
It mainly reflects the decline in China's import demand and the impact of
exchange rate changes in many countries.
By value, lamb accounts for about 5%
of international trade in meat.

 

2022 Meat Production and Trade Analysis and 2023 Outlook

 

 

Figure 2 FAO Meat and Feed Price Index 2014-16=100

 

Global meat production expanded, but global trade declined
.
World meat production is expected to be 360 million tonnes (carcass weight equivalent) in 2022, up 1.
2%
from 2021.
Most of the increase is expected to come from higher meat production in Asia, mainly pork in China, and beef and poultry in South America, with relatively stable meat production elsewhere and lower
meat production in Europe.

 

The global meat production system was affected
by lower production margins in 2022 as input costs, particularly energy, animal feed and fertilizer prices, rose sharply, outpacing producer price increases.
In addition, animal diseases continue to affect meat production in most major producing countries, disrupting trade
.
In the beef cattle industry, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and bovine sarcoidosis (LSD) are still prevalent
in some East Asian countries.
At the same time, African swine fever is still widespread
in Europe and Asia.
Similarly, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in Europe and the United States, limits the expansion of
poultry meat production.
While social distancing requirements related to the coronavirus pandemic have been significantly relaxed, they continue to disrupt the meat production value chain and affect the functioning
of some national markets.
Meat production in 2022 was also negatively affected by adverse weather conditions, mainly attributed to successive La Niña weather phenomena
.
This has led some producers to slaughter livestock early to minimize the impact of a lack of
feed supply.
While a significant increase in slaughter has increased meat production in the short term, early slaughter has led to a decrease in carcass weight and reduced meat production in some countries
.

 

Global meat trade is expected to reach 41.
6 million tonnes in 2022, down 0.
8%
from 2021.
China's meat imports are expected to fall 20%
year-on-year.
Domestic supply, especially pork supply, increased sharply and domestic pork prices fell under pressure, especially in April
2022.
Lower import demand will reduce China's share of imports in world meat trade to 21%
from 30% in 2020.
In the coming months, imports are expected to expand
along with rising domestic prices due to increased demand.
However, the likely increase in imports can only partially compensate for the decline in import trade in the first months of 2022, with annual imports remaining negative
.
Increased domestic production has also reduced demand for meat imports in several other countries, including Russia, Chile, Saudi Arabia, Canada and Vietnam
.

 

Meat imports in many other countries are likely to decline
.
This reflects the economic impact
associated with the economic downturn and high meat prices, especially red meat.
While food service and catering are recovering, lower activity compared to pre-COVID levels has limited imports
.
There are also some regions and countries where import demand will increase, with meat purchases from the UK, EU, US, South Korea, UAE, Malaysia and Japan set to increase, mainly due to increased demand for poultry and pork, as well as higher income consumers and increased demand for beef from the restaurant industry
.

 

In terms of meat exports, lower global meat import demand is expected to weaken the outlook
for meat exports in the EU, US, Canada, Ukraine and New Zealand due to lower production combined with increased domestic demand.
In the case of Ukraine, although poultry meat exports have rebounded in recent months, the decline in exports is associated with
disruptions in meat production and blocked logistics.
In contrast, meat exports from Brazil, China, Turkey, India, Thailand and other countries will increase
compared to the same period last year.
With the expected growth in meat exports, Brazil could become the world's largest meat exporter, while the United States and the European Union are in second and third place
, respectively.

 

 

Figure 3 Global meat production

 

 

Figure 4 Meat production in different regions of the world

 

 

Figure 5 Global meat trade