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Global pork production in 2022 is expected to be 124.
6 million tonnes, up 1.
8%
from 2021.
The growth of global pork production is mainly affected by the recovery of China's pig production capacity in the first half of 2022 and the sharp increase in pig slaughter, which accounts for about 46%
of global pork production.
Despite the continued rise in domestic prices in recent months, pork production declined
in the second half of the year due to headwinds such as high feed costs and the coronavirus pandemic.
A small part is also due to the expected increase in pork production in countries where the African swine fever outbreak is largely under control, including Vietnam, Myanmar and Russia
.
6 million tonnes, up 1.
8%
from 2021.
The growth of global pork production is mainly affected by the recovery of China's pig production capacity in the first half of 2022 and the sharp increase in pig slaughter, which accounts for about 46%
of global pork production.
Despite the continued rise in domestic prices in recent months, pork production declined
in the second half of the year due to headwinds such as high feed costs and the coronavirus pandemic.
A small part is also due to the expected increase in pork production in countries where the African swine fever outbreak is largely under control, including Vietnam, Myanmar and Russia
.
African swine fever continues to affect pork production in many other countries, including the European Union, Thailand and the Philippines
.
EU pork production is expected to decrease by around
5% due to reduced exports to China, increased production costs and the outbreak of African swine fever.
Thailand officially declared an African swine fever outbreak on January 11, 2022, and severely disrupted its domestic pork industry, with pork production expected to decline by more than
30%.
Similarly, pork production in the Philippines is expected to decline
due to the ongoing outbreak of African swine fever.
.
EU pork production is expected to decrease by around
5% due to reduced exports to China, increased production costs and the outbreak of African swine fever.
Thailand officially declared an African swine fever outbreak on January 11, 2022, and severely disrupted its domestic pork industry, with pork production expected to decline by more than
30%.
Similarly, pork production in the Philippines is expected to decline
due to the ongoing outbreak of African swine fever.
Among the major producing countries, US production will decrease by 1.
9%
due to the decline in sow inventory due to high input costs and limited profitability in pig farming.
Despite a 6.
7% increase in Brazilian production in the first half of 2022, pig slaughter continued to decline in the second half of the year and Brazilian production is expected to be only slightly higher than last year
.
9%
due to the decline in sow inventory due to high input costs and limited profitability in pig farming.
Despite a 6.
7% increase in Brazilian production in the first half of 2022, pig slaughter continued to decline in the second half of the year and Brazilian production is expected to be only slightly higher than last year
.
Canadian pork production is expected to decline slightly despite
a 0.
4% increase in pig slaughter from January to October 2022, as a result of reduced slaughter capacity due to labor shortages and excessive pen pressing in early 2022.
a 0.
4% increase in pig slaughter from January to October 2022, as a result of reduced slaughter capacity due to labor shortages and excessive pen pressing in early 2022.
Mexican pork production is expected to increase by 2.
7%,
driven by increased domestic demand and increased exports, as well as continuous improvements in genetic improvements, breeding and animal health protocols.
7%,
driven by increased domestic demand and increased exports, as well as continuous improvements in genetic improvements, breeding and animal health protocols.
Global pork exports in 2022 are expected to reach 11.
3 million mt, down 11.
3%
from the previous year.
The main reason is that China's pork imports are expected to decline by almost 45%, with pork imports not exceeding 2.
7 million mt, which is still 24%
of global trade, although well below the 2020 level of 45%.
Due to sufficient domestic pig production capacity and low domestic prices, pork imports fell significantly in the first half of this year
.
However, pork imports are expected to grow in the second half of the year as domestic prices start to
rise in April.
Despite rising domestic pork prices, import demand is likely to increase
in the coming months due to market volatility due to rising feed costs, reduced breeding sow stocks, and Covid restrictions.
3 million mt, down 11.
3%
from the previous year.
The main reason is that China's pork imports are expected to decline by almost 45%, with pork imports not exceeding 2.
7 million mt, which is still 24%
of global trade, although well below the 2020 level of 45%.
Due to sufficient domestic pig production capacity and low domestic prices, pork imports fell significantly in the first half of this year
.
However, pork imports are expected to grow in the second half of the year as domestic prices start to
rise in April.
Despite rising domestic pork prices, import demand is likely to increase
in the coming months due to market volatility due to rising feed costs, reduced breeding sow stocks, and Covid restrictions.
Vietnam's pork imports are expected to decline
due to three consecutive years of production growth.
Pork imports from Canada and Chile are expected to decline due to
weak domestic demand.
due to three consecutive years of production growth.
Pork imports from Canada and Chile are expected to decline due to
weak domestic demand.
Among the major importers, pork imports from the United States, South Korea, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom and the Philippines are expected to increase
.
In 2022, growing pork consumption drove the United States and Mexico to increase pork imports
.
As of September, imports from Japan and South Korea in the first half of this year increased by 9% and 30.
5% year-on-year, respectively, and imports are expected to remain stable
throughout the year.
In June 2022, South Korea tried to stabilize domestic prices by eliminating pork tariffs, and in early September announced its acceptance of the principle of "regionalization" of animal diseases such as African swine fever, and resumed pork
imports from African swine fever-free areas such as countries such as Germany and Poland.
.
In 2022, growing pork consumption drove the United States and Mexico to increase pork imports
.
As of September, imports from Japan and South Korea in the first half of this year increased by 9% and 30.
5% year-on-year, respectively, and imports are expected to remain stable
throughout the year.
In June 2022, South Korea tried to stabilize domestic prices by eliminating pork tariffs, and in early September announced its acceptance of the principle of "regionalization" of animal diseases such as African swine fever, and resumed pork
imports from African swine fever-free areas such as countries such as Germany and Poland.
The UK will increase pork imports
to meet domestic pork consumption demand, although it is likely to be affected by lower consumer demand due to higher living costs, as UK pork production is expected to decline.
Philippine pork imports are expected to increase
due to reduced domestic production and low pork import duties extended (15% within quota and 25% outside quota) until December 31, 2022.
to meet domestic pork consumption demand, although it is likely to be affected by lower consumer demand due to higher living costs, as UK pork production is expected to decline.
Philippine pork imports are expected to increase
due to reduced domestic production and low pork import duties extended (15% within quota and 25% outside quota) until December 31, 2022.
On the export side, despite increased exports to other Asian countries, the decline in Chinese pork imports is expected to lead to lower
exports from the four largest pork exporters: the European Union, the United States, Canada and Brazil.
exports from the four largest pork exporters: the European Union, the United States, Canada and Brazil.
Figure 9 Pork imports and wholesale domestic pork prices in China
Import demand is down, but global trade in ovine is still expected to grow
Global ovine meat production is expected to reach 16.
5 million tonnes in 2022, an increase of 0.
9%
over 2021.
The increase was mainly due to expected increases in ovine meat production in Turkey, China, the United Kingdom and Australia, partially offset by lower production in Ethiopia and New Zealand
.
5 million tonnes in 2022, an increase of 0.
9%
over 2021.
The increase was mainly due to expected increases in ovine meat production in Turkey, China, the United Kingdom and Australia, partially offset by lower production in Ethiopia and New Zealand
.
Slaughter volumes in Turkey are expected to grow
due to increasing domestic demand.
due to increasing domestic demand.
From January to June 2022, domestic mutton production increased by 0.
7% year-on-year compared with the same period last year, and China's mutton production is expected to increase
.
7% year-on-year compared with the same period last year, and China's mutton production is expected to increase
.
UK ovine meat production is expected to rebound to 2020 levels due to an increase in stocks at the beginning of the year and an increase in production costs leading to earlier slaughter, with increased slaughter volumes compensating for
lower carcass weight.
lower carcass weight.
Good breeds, good farm production management and above-average rainfall have driven growth in Australia's meat sheep population, while carcass weight has increased, resulting in record production in Q2 2022, with ovine production expected to increase by 4%
year-on-year.
year-on-year.
Ethiopia's prolonged drought has triggered severe pasture and water shortages, leading to widespread livestock deaths in its southern pastoral areas, shrinking sheep herds and projected declines in mutton production
.
.
Production improved in the second half of the year due to continued dry weather in New Zealand, which led to reduced feed supply and labour shortages in the first half of the year, but ovine meat production is expected to decline
for the year.
for the year.
Global lamb exports in 2022 are expected to be 1.
1 million tonnes, up 1.
2%
from 2021.
1 million tonnes, up 1.
2%
from 2021.
China's mutton imports are expected to decline, but still account for more than
a third of global mutton imports.
Higher imports from the European Union, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will partially offset lower
imports from China.
a third of global mutton imports.
Higher imports from the European Union, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will partially offset lower
imports from China.
EU ovine meat imports are expected to increase
due to insufficient domestic supply and persistently sluggish demand.
EU lamb imports in the first nine months of this year increased by 26% year-on-year due to the imbalance between supply and demand within the EU, mainly from the UK, New Zealand and Australia
.
Nevertheless, the volume of Oceania's exports to the EU will depend on shipping costs and the attractiveness
of Asian lamb offers.
Similarly, Malaysian, Saudi Arabian and UAE lamb imports are expected to increase due to growing domestic demand, mainly from Australia
.
due to insufficient domestic supply and persistently sluggish demand.
EU lamb imports in the first nine months of this year increased by 26% year-on-year due to the imbalance between supply and demand within the EU, mainly from the UK, New Zealand and Australia
.
Nevertheless, the volume of Oceania's exports to the EU will depend on shipping costs and the attractiveness
of Asian lamb offers.
Similarly, Malaysian, Saudi Arabian and UAE lamb imports are expected to increase due to growing domestic demand, mainly from Australia
.
The growth of ovine meat exports in 2022 was mainly affected
by the growth of exports from Australia and the United Kingdom.
Thanks to increased export supply and diversification of export markets, Australian ovine meat exports are largely unaffected by
the decline in Chinese imports.
For example, from January to September 2022, Australia's lamb exports to key export markets other than China (Malaysia, South Korea, Papua New Guinea, UAE and Japan) all increased compared to the same period last year, while exports to the United States remained largely stable
.
by the growth of exports from Australia and the United Kingdom.
Thanks to increased export supply and diversification of export markets, Australian ovine meat exports are largely unaffected by
the decline in Chinese imports.
For example, from January to September 2022, Australia's lamb exports to key export markets other than China (Malaysia, South Korea, Papua New Guinea, UAE and Japan) all increased compared to the same period last year, while exports to the United States remained largely stable
.
The growth in UK lamb exports has been helped by increased
import demand in many EU member states.
China accounted for more than 62% of New Zealand's lamb exports in 2021, compared to the expected decline due to export market impact and limited international import demand, especially reduced Chinese import demand
.
import demand in many EU member states.
China accounted for more than 62% of New Zealand's lamb exports in 2021, compared to the expected decline due to export market impact and limited international import demand, especially reduced Chinese import demand
.
Figure 10 New Zealand lamb main export markets
Table 4 Global pork supply and demand situation by major regions and countries in 2022
Table 5 Global and major regions and countries in 2022 lamb supply and demand situation
Table 6 Global and major national prices of pig, cattle, sheep and poultry
Table 7 FAO Pig, Cattle, Sheep and Poultry Price Index
Related Stories: Global Meat Market Trend Analysis in 2022 and Outlook for 2023 (1)
Global Meat Market Trend Analysis 2022 and Outlook 2023 (2)
