Global oilseed market: August weather in the Midwest of the United States became a key decline in price trends

 

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) November soybean futures fell by approximately 12.
5 cents from a week ago, to close at 1,336.
75 cents per cat
.
The average spot price of Meiwan No.
1 yellow soybeans was US$14.
8475 per cat (US$545.
6 per ton), up 0.
5 cents from a week ago
.
The Euronext exchange's November 2021 rapeseed futures closed at about 542.
50 euros/ton, an increase of 20 euros from a week ago
.
The intercontinental exchange (ICE) November rapeseed futures rose by 49.
6 Canadian dollars from a week ago to close at 891.
80 Canadian dollars/ton; the FOB spot price of Shanghe soybeans provided by the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture was 533 US dollars (including 33% export tax), compared with A week ago it rose by $2 or 0.
38%
.
The Dalian Commodity Exchange reported that soybeans closed at 5,838 yuan/ton in September, up 160 yuan from a week ago
.

 

On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 92.
78 points, up 0.
7% from a week ago
.

 

The weather in August becomes a key price influence factor

 

The recent favorable rainfall in the Midwest of the United States has improved the condition of soybean crops, which is also negative for soybean prices
.
The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report showed that as of August 1, the excellent and good rate of soybeans in the United States was 60%, an increase of 2% from the previous week, but still lower than the 73% in the same period last year
.
The blooming rate is 86%, and the five-year average is 82%; the pod setting rate is 58%, and the five-year average is 52%
.
Weather forecasts indicate that some areas in the central and western regions will also experience rain
.
The weather forecast for the next 8 to 14 released on Friday shows that rainfall in the central and western regions will decrease and the weather will be drier
.
All in all, the weather in August will become a key variable affecting soybean prices
.

 

　　China resumes buying U.
S.
soybeans

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending July 29, the US 2020/21 net soybean sales were 11,400 tons, 33% lower than the four-week average
.
The net sales volume in 2021/22 was 424,800 tons, of which 129,000 tons were sold to China, and the sales of new beans exceeded expectations
.
So far in 2020/21, US soybean export sales totaled 61.
92 million tons, an increase of 31.
9% year-on-year
.
It is worth mentioning that on Friday, private exporters reported selling 131,000 tons of soybeans to China, and on Thursday they reported selling 300,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations
.
According to a Chinese think tank, China’s soybean stocks were 6.
63 million tons last week, a decrease of 680,000 tons from a week ago and a decrease of 330,000 tons from the previous month
.
The decrease in stocks may be related to the decrease in the arrival of imported soybeans in July
.
Analysts from the Brazilian Agricultural Investment Commodities Corporation said that in order to ensure sufficient supply, China still needs to purchase about 25 million tons of soybeans from now to the end of January
.
In the week ending August 5, Chinese buyers bought 12 shipments of Brazilian soybeans, which are scheduled for September
.

 

　　Canadian rapeseed remains strong

 

　　After last week's decline, the Canadian rapeseed market resumed its uptrend this week, as the heat and drought in Western Canada continued to damage the growth of rapeseed crops
.
The Canadian Department of Agriculture recently estimated that Canada's rapeseed output this year will be 19 million tons, far higher than analysts’ forecasts of 16-17 million tons, and higher than the 18.
7 million tons in 2020
.
In its July supply and demand report, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture lowered the Canadian rapeseed production for the year of 2021/22 by 300,000 tons to 20.
2 million tons
.
Analysts pointed out that taking into account the recent weather conditions in the prairie region, the actual output will be far below the government's expectations
.
Statistics Canada will release production forecasts based on surveys later this month
.

 

　　Brazil's soybean production may be high next season

 

　　According to ANEC, the Brazilian Grain Exporters Association, Brazil’s soybean production in 2021/22 will reach a record 144 million tons.
Because of high soybean prices, farmers plan to increase soybean plantings
.
Brazil's soybean exports in 2021/22 will also increase to 94.
3 million tons, because export supplies are expected to increase
.
This is higher than the current year’s estimated export value of 86.
5 million tons
.
Brazil's soybean production in 2020/21 is expected to be 137 million tons
.
Brazilian farmers will start planting soybeans for the 2021/22 season in mid-September
.

 

　　Argentine strikes continue, intermittently disrupting the pace of exports

 

　　On August 5, the truck driver ended the five-day road blockade at the Argentine grain port Blanca, and the grain was able to re-enter the port terminal
.
Truck drivers staged protests aimed at raising wages
.
Although the port "has returned to normal", Carlos Sosa, a member of the board of directors of the Blanca Port Management Union, said that if their wage requirements are not met, they may be within 72 hours (the evening of August 7).
) Resume the protest
.
The recent cargo throughput of the port of Bahia Blanca is higher than usual because some grains that are usually exported from the port of Rosario on the Parana River are transported to the port of Blanca
.
The low water level of the Parana River caused a reduction of more than 25% in the number of cargoes carried by freighters in the port of Rosario, so it had to be transported to ports like Blanca by truck
.
Gustavo Idigolas, head of CIARA-CEC of the Export Chamber of Commerce, said that the additional trucking has greatly increased the logistics cost of crops
.

 

　　The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture issued a report on August 4 that as of July 28, Argentine farmers had sold 26.
3 million tons of soybeans, an increase of 500,000 tons from a week ago, but still lower than the 28.
5 million tons in the same period last year
.
Despite the high international soybean prices this year, Argentine farmers are reluctant to sell soybeans because the peso exchange rate has fallen, and holding soybeans is more cost-effective than holding pesos
.

 

　　U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's supply and demand report attracts attention

 

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture will release a supply and demand report on August 12
.
On average, analysts predict that the forecast for US soybean production may be lowered to 4.
375 billion bu, which is lower than the 4.
405 billion bu predicted by the US Department of Agriculture in July; analysts’ forecast range is between 4.
273 billion and 4.
450 billion bu
.
This week, some analysis agencies are also releasing their own production forecast data.
Among them, StoneX predicts that the US soybean production will be 4.
332 billion bushes this year, with an average yield of 50 bushes per acre.
Barcharts expects soybean production to be 4.
4 billion bushels, with an average yield of 51 bushels per acre.
Acres; IHS Markit estimates that the yield is 4.
464 billion cats, with an average yield of 51.
5 cats/acre
.
The South American agricultural expert, Dr.
Michael Cordogne, predicts that the U.
S.
soybean yield in 2021 will be 50 bushels per acre
.
In contrast, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture estimated in July that the average soybean yield in the United States was 50.
8 bushels per acre
.