Global oilseed market: Canadian canola plantings are expected to decrease, oilseeds rise and fall

Foreign media May 1 news: In the week ended April 29, 2022, global oilseed prices rose and fell
.
Low temperature and rain in the U.
S.
Midwest have slowed down spring planting, Canadian farmers plan to cut canola acreage, and Indonesia has expanded its ban on vegetable oil exports , supporting oilseed prices
.
But continued slow progress in U.
S.
corn planting could prompt farmers to switch to soybeans , weighing on oilseed prices
.

 

　　July 2022 soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) settled at around $16.
8475 a bush on Friday, down 3.
25 cents, or 0.
2%, from a week ago
.
Cash US Gulf No.
1 soybeans were quoted at $18.
1375 a bushel ($669.
3 a tonne), down 7.
75 cents, or 0.
43%, from a week ago
.
On the Euronext exchange, August rapeseed futures settled at around 860.
25 euros per ton, down 21 euros or 2.
4% from a week ago
.
The July rapeseed on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed at 1188.
10 Canadian dollars per ton, up 16.
4 Canadian dollars or 1.
4% from a week ago; the FOB spot price of Argentina's upper river soybeans was US$656 (including 33% export tax), which was higher than a week ago.
up $2
.
July 2022 soybean futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at around 6,180 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan or 0.
7% from a week ago
.
The U.
S.
dollar index closed at 103.
21 points on Friday, up 2.
1% from a week ago.
It has risen 7.
5% so far this year, and once hit a 20-year high this week
.

 

　　Prospect of rate hikes haunts global markets

 

　　The Federal Reserve will hold its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 3-4
.
Economists expect the Fed is likely to raise its benchmark rate by 50 basis points at this meeting and at its June meeting, which would represent the largest pace of rate hikes since 2000
.
But in the second half of 2022, the Fed is likely to shift to a more moderate rate hike, with 25 basis points at a time
.
In addition, the Federal Reserve will shrink its balance sheet by $9 trillion starting in May
.

 

　　Indonesia's export ban policy hits global oil market

 

　　In the past week, the Indonesian government's food protectionist policies have added to the turmoil in the global vegetable oil market
.
After announcing a ban on the export of 24% refined palm oil earlier this week, the Indonesian government on Wednesday abruptly announced that it would expand the export ban to include crude palm oil and other refined palm oil products (even used vegetable oil)
.
The news triggered violent fluctuations in global vegetable oils, with Chicago soybean oil futures hitting an all-time high of 85.
77 cents per pound at one point
.
Indonesia is the world's number one palm oil producer and exporter, exporting about 27.
3 million tonnes of palm oil annually
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture expects Indonesia's 2021/22 palm oil production to reach 44.
5 million tons, up 4.
6% year-on-year
.
Exports are expected to reach 28 million tons, up 4.
2% year-on-year
.

 

　　U.
S.
planting progress is slow

 

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly crop report released on Monday showed that as of April 24, U.
S.
soybean planting was 3 percent complete, up from 1 percent a week earlier, but behind the 7 percent a year earlier and the five-year average of 5 percent
.
This week, the weather in the central and western regions is still cold and rainy.
The weather forecast shows that the rainy weather will not change from the weekend to the beginning of next week, which means that the progress of spring planting will remain slow
.
Corn planting is far behind normal.
Once the ideal planting window period has passed, farmers may switch part of their corn arable land to soybeans, especially when the cost of production materials such as fertilizers has risen sharply
.
Corn is a fertilizer-intensive crop
.

 

　　The U.
S.
sells soybeans to China, but the overall pace of exports still lags behind last year

 

　　On April 25, private U.
S.
exporters reported sales of 534,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, with 66,000 tonnes for delivery in 2021/22 and the remaining 468,000 tonnes for delivery in 2022/23
.
On April 26, U.
S.
private exporters reported sales of 132,000 tons of U.
S.
soybeans to China for delivery in 2022/23; in addition to sales of 133,000 tons of U.
S.
soybeans to unknown destinations, 78,000 tons of U.
S.
soybeans were delivered in 2021/22.
55,000 tonnes will be delivered in 2022/23
.
Those sales will be reflected in next week's export sales report
.
As of April 28, US Gulf soybeans were quoted at US$676 per ton, Brazil's Paranagua port soybeans were quoted at US$671 per ton, and Argentina's upper river soybeans were at US$656 per ton
.

 

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net U.
S.
soybean export sales for the week ended April 21, 2022, at 1.
06 million tons (including new season soybeans), within industry expectations
.
So far in 2021/22, U.
S.
soybean export sales totaled 57.
58 million tons, down 5.
8% year-on-year, mainly due to slower exports to China
.
So far in 2021/22, total U.
S.
soybean sales to China (including both shipped and onboard sales) are 29.
84 million tons, down 16.
4% year-on-year
.
China's domestic pig farming has suffered losses this year, affecting demand for soybean imports
.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture of China, at the end of March, China had 41.
85 million bred sows, a decrease of 3.
3% from the previous month and a decrease of 3.
1% from the same period last year
.
However, the recent rebound in domestic pork prices may help prevent a larger decline in herd numbers
.

 

　　High freight rates in Brazil affect export demand

 

　　Cargill Group Brazil executive Pablo Sousa said this week that higher fuel prices have led to higher freight costs, hurting profits in Brazil
.
However, he expects Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans to remain healthy
.
Revenue from Cargill’s operations in Brazil fell 15% in 2021 to 1.
8 billion reais ($374.
42 million), partly reflecting the impact of a poor corn harvest the previous year due to drought and frost, as well as higher energy and input costs
.

 

　　Canadian farmers may reduce canola acreage by 7%

 

　　Based on the survey conducted from March 1 to March 29, Statistics Canada projected this week that Canadian farmers plan to plant 20.
9 million acres of canola in 2022, 7 percent less than last year, 6 percent below the five-year average, and less than Analysts expected 22.
1 million acres
.
Although the price of rapeseed is at a record high, the scale of planting is still declining, as the high cost of production materials such as fertilizers has prompted farmers to switch to crops such as wheat, the Bureau of Statistics said
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's counselor reports that rapeseed may require three times as much nitrogen as crops such as spring wheat or oats to achieve high yields
.