Global oilseed market: good weather, production increase, oilseed prices fall

 

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) November soybean futures fell 5.
5 cents, or 0.
4%, from a week ago to close at 1286.
5 cents/po
.
The average spot price of Meiwan No.
1 yellow soybeans was US$13.
405 per cat (US$492.
5 per ton), down 35.
5 cents or 2.
58% from a week ago
.
The Euronext exchange's November 2021 rapeseed futures closed at about 571.
75 euros/ton, an increase of 0.
25 euros from a week ago
.
The intercontinental exchange (ICE) November rapeseed period fell by about 32.
5 Canadian dollars or 3.
7% from a week ago to close at 853.
70 Canadian dollars/ton; the FOB spot price of Shanghe soybeans provided by the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture was US$547 (including 33% export tax).
), an increase of $5 or 0.
92% over a week ago
.
On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, soybeans closed at 5,873 yuan/ton in November, up 61 or 1% from a week ago
.

 

　　U.
S.
Department of Agriculture raises U.
S.
soybean production

 

　　In the September supply and demand report, the US Department of Agriculture estimated that the US soybean production this year was 4.
374 billion cats, 35 million cats higher than last month's forecast and also higher than the previous year's 4.
135 billion cats, which will be the third highest level in history
.
The forecast value of soybean yield was raised to 50.
6 bu/acre, higher than the 50.
0 bu/acre estimated in August, and also higher than the 50.
2 bu/acre of the previous year
.
However, the soybean planting area was unexpectedly lowered by 400,000 acres and the harvested area was lowered by 300,000 acres
.

 

　　Canola stocks in Canada are higher than market expectations, and canola production in Australia will hit a record high

 

　　Statistics Canada’s inventory report released on September 8 showed that as of July 31, Canadian rapeseed stocks were 1.
767 million tons, a decrease of 48.
6% from the same period last year, the lowest level since July 2017, but far higher At the level expected by analysts
.
The decline in rapeseed supply in 2020/21, coupled with strong overseas demand, has led to a decline in rapeseed stocks
.
Statistics Canada recently estimated that Canada's rapeseed production in 2021/22 was 14.
7 million tons, down 24.
3% year-on-year, but higher than the industry's 14.
1 million tons expected
.
At the end of August, the Canadian Department of Agriculture estimated that Canada's rapeseed output this year was 15 million tons, which was lower than the 198.
85 million tons predicted in July and also lower than the previous year's 18.
72 million tons
.
On September 10, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture lowered the 2021 Canadian rapeseed production data by 2 million tons to 14 million tons
.

 

　　According to the quarterly production report released by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resources and Economics (ABARES) on September 7th, due to exceptionally good growing conditions, the Australian rapeseed production in 2020/2021 is expected to reach a record 5.
037 million tons, an increase of 83% from the previous forecast.
10,000 tons, higher than last year’s 4.
524 million tons, and surpassed the historical record of 4.
31 million tons five years ago
.

 

　　Weather in the Midwest of the U.
S.
Favors Soybean Ripe and Harvest

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report shows that as of September 5, the pod-setting rate of US soybeans was 96%, which was the same as the five-year average
.
The excellent and good rate of soybeans was 57%, which was higher than 56% a week ago and 65% in the same period last year
.
Forecasts based on US weather models show that in the next 10 days, temperatures in the Midwestern United States will increase and rainfall will be lower, which will help crops mature faster
.
(The following two pictures are the temperature and rainfall forecasts in the United States from September 17 to 21)
.

 

　　China continues to buy U.
S.
soybeans

 

　　The weekly export sales report issued by the US Department of Agriculture shows that for the week ending September 2, 2021, the net sales of US soybeans in the 2021/2022 year beginning on September 1 were 1.
47 million tons
.
Recently, Chinese buyers are still buying US soybeans steadily
.
Private exporters reported sales of 106,000 tons of soybeans to China on Wednesday, 132,000 tons of soybeans to China on Thursday, and 132,000 tons of soybeans to China on Friday, all for delivery in 2020/22
.
So far in September, the US Department of Agriculture has announced the sale of 626,000 tons of soybeans to China
.

 

　　According to Chinese customs data, China's soybean imports in August were 9.
488 million tons, which was higher than the 8.
674 million tons in July, but a decrease of 1.
1 percentage points from the same period last year
.

 

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture raised China’s soybean imports for 2020/21 (October to September of the following year) to 99 million tons this month, which is higher than the 97 million tons predicted last month.
Purchase US soybeans
.

 

　　The "China Agriculture Outlook 2021-2030" report issued by the Brazilian Agricultural and Livestock Union (CNA) on August 25 stated that China's soybean imports will reach about 100 million tons in 2021, and the annual import volume from next year to 2030 will remain at Between 100 million tons and 110 million tons
.
The EU's import demand will also increase, and the 2021/22 season

 

　　Soybean planting in Brazil is about to start, and the weather at the beginning of the season has improved compared to last year?

 

　　In South America, soybean planting for the 2021/21 season is about to start in full swing
.
Brazil’s local meteorological agency said that this week, the southern region of Brazil had good rainfall, and there will be rain in the central and southern soybean producing areas in the next few days, which is conducive to soybean planting
.
Last year’s dry weather forced farmers to continue planting corn for the second season after the planting window was closed, resulting in a decline in yield and delayed harvest
.
The weather forecast also showed that the intensity of rainfall increased in Mato Grosso, Goiás and Minas Gerais from September to October
.
Judging from the weather forecasts we know now, the weather this year may be better than last year.
Last year, the rainy season in Brazil was shortened by more than a month because the rainy season came late and then left early
.
However, La Niña is still a major variable.
If La Niña appears during the winter, it may pose a potential threat to the planting and growth of South American crops
.

 

　　The Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) this week forecasted a record 135.
9 million tons of Brazilian soybean production in 2020/21, which was lower than the August forecast of 136 million tons, but higher than the 124.
8 million tons in 2019/20
.

 

　　This week, the Rosario Grain Exchange expects that Argentine farmers will harvest 48.
8 million tons of soybeans in 2020/22, which is lower than the 49 million tons previously predicted because farmers broadcast higher-yielding corn
.
Soybean sown area reached 16.
2 million hectares, which was 200,000 hectares lower than previously expected and 700,000 hectares less than the previous year
.
Argentine farmers will start planting soybeans next month
.
According to the report, the current yield of soybean planting is lower than that of corn
.
Due to higher taxes on oilseeds and lack of water, soybean production has fallen
.
The export tax on soybeans is 33%, and the export tax on soybean oil and soybean meal is 31%; while the export tax on corn is only 12%
.