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    Home > Food News > Food Articles > Global oilseed market: market speculation weather risk premium, oilseed prices rise

    Global oilseed market: market speculation weather risk premium, oilseed prices rise

    • Last Update: 2021-06-10
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Foreign media news on June 6: As of the week of June 4, 2021, most of the global oilseed market prices have risen because the hot and dry weather in the Midwestern United States and the Canadian prairies threatens the growth of newly sown oilseeds.
    However, the strengthening of the U.
    S.
    dollar exchange rate, rising global food inflation concerns, and the launch of the new soybean harvest in South America have restricted the upside of the oilseed market.
     
    On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July soybean futures rose by about 53.
    25 cents from a week ago, to close at 1,583.
    75 cents per cat.
    The average spot price of Meiwan No.
    1 yellow soybeans was US$16.
    5225 per cat (US$607.
    1 per ton), an increase of 49.
    75 US cents or 3.
    10% from a week ago.
    The Euronext exchange's August 2021 rapeseed futures closed at about 537.
    50 euros/ton, an increase of 17.
    75 euros from a week ago.
    The intercontinental exchange (ICE) July rapeseed futures rose by about 14.
    4 Canadian dollars from a week ago to close at 904.
    40 Canadian dollars per ton; the FOB spot price of Argentine Shanghe soybeans was 562 US dollars (including 33% export tax), which was 12 higher than a week ago.
    US dollars.
    The Shanghe spot price of Argentine soybean meal is US$412/ton per ton, up US$11 from a week ago.
    The Dalian Commodity Exchange reported that soybeans closed at 5,851 yuan/ton in September, up 121 yuan from a week ago.
     
      Market participants pay close attention to the weather situation in the soybean-producing regions of the United States and the logistics situation in South America.
    Recently, the weather in the Midwest of the United States is hot and dry, and the weather will be even hotter and less rainy for some time to come, threatening the growth of new soybeans.
    Taking into account the extremely low end-of-term soybean inventory in the United States, the United States needs a bumper harvest of soybeans to replenish the depleted inventory and meet increasing demand.
    Therefore, there is little room for fault tolerance in soybean production this year.
    This has caused the market to speculate on weather risk premiums in advance, despite the current Only in the early stage of soybean growth, there are still several weeks before the crop enters the critical yield formation period.
     
      The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report shows that as of May 30, the US soybean planting progress was 84%, last week 75%, last year 74%, and the five-year average for the same period was 67%.
    Soybean seedling rate was 62%, 41% last week, 50% in the same period last year, and 42% in the past five years.
    The U.
    S.
    Department of Agriculture will release the first soybean crop status report of this year next week.
     
      In South America, the soybean harvest is coming to an end, and the pace of exports is accelerating.
    According to Brazilian customs data, Brazilian soybean exports reached 16.
    4 million tons in May 2021, the highest level in the same period, a year-on-year increase of 16.
    3%, but a decrease of 5.
    6% from April.
    According to data from the Brazilian Grain Exporters Association, Brazil exported 50.
    56 million tons of soybeans in the first five months of this year, up from 49.
    75 million tons in the same period last year.
    Analysts pointed out that due to the increase in export supply, coupled with the strong demand from crushers and exporters, export opportunities are good, so this year's Brazilian soybean export window is expected to be extended.
    The National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB), a subsidiary of the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, currently estimates that soybean production this year will reach a record 135.
    4 million tons.
    This week, the Brazilian consulting agency Datagro raised its 2020/21 soybean production forecast to 13696 million tons.
    The earlier forecast of 136.
    34 million tons, an increase of 7% over the previous year.
    StoneX maintains Brazil’s soybean production forecast unchanged, still at 135.
    7 million tons, higher than last year’s 124.
    5 million tons.
    The agency said that due to Brazil's temporary reduction of the biodiesel blending rate, the domestic soybean crush has decreased and the export supply has increased.
    Therefore, StoneX expects Brazil's soybean exports to reach a record 85.
    5 million tons in 2021, which is higher than the previous month's forecast.
    500,000 tons, higher than the 83 million tons in the previous year.
     
      With the new soybean harvest in South America on the market, U.
    S.
    soybean exports continue to slow down.
    The US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending May 27, US 2020/21 net soybean sales were 17,800 tons, 68% lower than last week and 82% lower than the four-week average.
    So far this year, US soybean export sales totaled 61.
    54 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 45%.
     
      The US soybean crush seasonally slowed down in April because of the seasonal maintenance of crushing plants.
    The U.
    S.
    Department of Agriculture's monthly oilseed processing report showed that the U.
    S.
    soybean crush in April was lower than expected.
    U.
    S.
    soybean crush in April 2021 was 5.
    0956 million tons (170 million cattails), a decrease of 9.
    8% from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 7.
    4%.
     
      The private organization IHS Markit estimated on Friday that U.
    S.
    soybean production will be 122 million tons in 2021, up from 112 million tons in the previous year.
    Brazil’s soybean production in 2021 was 139 million tons, compared with 128 million tons in the previous year.
    Brazil’s soybean production in 2022 is expected to be 140 million tons.
    Argentina's soybean production in 2021 is expected to be 44 million tons, compared with 49 million tons in the previous year, and 54 million tons in 2022.
     
      Next Thursday (June 10) the US Department of Agriculture will release its June supply and demand report.
    Analysts expect this report to show that the US soybean ending stocks for 2020/21 will be 122 million cats, higher than the 120 million cats predicted last month; the US soybeans ending stocks for the 2020/22 year will be 143 million cats, higher than last month's forecast.
    Of 140 million po.
    Oilseed prices U.
    S.
    Canadian food
     
      On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July soybean futures rose by about 53.
    25 cents from a week ago, to close at 1,583.
    75 cents per cat.
    The average spot price of Meiwan No.
    1 yellow soybeans was US$16.
    5225 per cat (US$607.
    1 per ton), an increase of 49.
    75 US cents or 3.
    10% from a week ago.
    The Euronext exchange's August 2021 rapeseed futures closed at about 537.
    50 euros/ton, an increase of 17.
    75 euros from a week ago.
    The intercontinental exchange (ICE) July rapeseed futures rose by about 14.
    4 Canadian dollars from a week ago to close at 904.
    40 Canadian dollars per ton; the FOB spot price of Argentine Shanghe soybeans was 562 US dollars (including 33% export tax), which was 12 higher than a week ago.
    US dollars.
    The Shanghe spot price of Argentine soybean meal is US$412/ton per ton, up US$11 from a week ago.
    The Dalian Commodity Exchange reported that soybeans closed at 5,851 yuan/ton in September, up 121 yuan from a week ago.
     
      Market participants pay close attention to the weather situation in the soybean-producing regions of the United States and the logistics situation in South America.
    Recently, the weather in the Midwest of the United States is hot and dry, and the weather will be even hotter and less rainy for some time to come, threatening the growth of new soybeans.
    Taking into account the extremely low end-of-term soybean inventory in the United States, the United States needs a bumper harvest of soybeans to replenish the depleted inventory and meet increasing demand.
    Therefore, there is little room for fault tolerance in soybean production this year.
    This has caused the market to speculate on weather risk premiums in advance, despite the current Only in the early stage of soybean growth, there are still several weeks before the crop enters the critical yield formation period.
     
      The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report shows that as of May 30, the US soybean planting progress was 84%, last week 75%, last year 74%, and the five-year average for the same period was 67%.
    Soybean seedling rate was 62%, 41% last week, 50% in the same period last year, and 42% in the past five years.
    The U.
    S.
    Department of Agriculture will release the first soybean crop status report of this year next week.
     
      In South America, the soybean harvest is coming to an end, and the pace of exports is accelerating.
    According to Brazilian customs data, Brazilian soybean exports reached 16.
    4 million tons in May 2021, the highest level in the same period, a year-on-year increase of 16.
    3%, but a decrease of 5.
    6% from April.
    According to data from the Brazilian Grain Exporters Association, Brazil exported 50.
    56 million tons of soybeans in the first five months of this year, up from 49.
    75 million tons in the same period last year.
    Analysts pointed out that due to the increase in export supply, coupled with the strong demand from crushers and exporters, export opportunities are good, so this year's Brazilian soybean export window is expected to be extended.
    The National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB), a subsidiary of the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, currently estimates that soybean production this year will reach a record 135.
    4 million tons.
    This week, the Brazilian consulting agency Datagro raised its 2020/21 soybean production forecast to 13696 million tons.
    The earlier forecast of 136.
    34 million tons, an increase of 7% over the previous year.
    StoneX maintains Brazil’s soybean production forecast unchanged, still at 135.
    7 million tons, higher than last year’s 124.
    5 million tons.
    The agency said that due to Brazil's temporary reduction of the biodiesel blending rate, the domestic soybean crush has decreased and the export supply has increased.
    Therefore, StoneX expects Brazil's soybean exports to reach a record 85.
    5 million tons in 2021, which is higher than the previous month's forecast.
    500,000 tons, higher than the 83 million tons in the previous year.
     
      With the new soybean harvest in South America on the market, U.
    S.
    soybean exports continue to slow down.
    The US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending May 27, US 2020/21 net soybean sales were 17,800 tons, 68% lower than last week and 82% lower than the four-week average.
    So far this year, US soybean export sales totaled 61.
    54 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 45%.
     
      The US soybean crush seasonally slowed down in April because of the seasonal maintenance of crushing plants.
    The U.
    S.
    Department of Agriculture's monthly oilseed processing report showed that the U.
    S.
    soybean crush in April was lower than expected.
    U.
    S.
    soybean crush in April 2021 was 5.
    0956 million tons (170 million cattails), a decrease of 9.
    8% from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 7.
    4%.
     
      The private organization IHS Markit estimated on Friday that U.
    S.
    soybean production will be 122 million tons in 2021, up from 112 million tons in the previous year.
    Brazil’s soybean production in 2021 was 139 million tons, compared with 128 million tons in the previous year.
    Brazil’s soybean production in 2022 is expected to be 140 million tons.
    Argentina's soybean production in 2021 is expected to be 44 million tons, compared with 49 million tons in the previous year, and 54 million tons in 2022.
     
      Next Thursday (June 10) the US Department of Agriculture will release its June supply and demand report.
    Analysts expect this report to show that the US soybean ending stocks for 2020/21 will be 122 million cats, higher than the 120 million cats predicted last month; the US soybeans ending stocks for the 2020/22 year will be 143 million cats, higher than last month's forecast.
    Of 140 million po.
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